This summer may see first ice-free North Pole

[L Gilbert]

From the website where Walter got this graph from

Decline in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Passive microwave satellite data reveal that, since 1979, winter Arctic ice extent has decreased about 4.2 percent per decade (Meier et al. 2006). Antarctic ice extent is increasing (Cavalieri et al. 2003), but the trend is small.
Satellite data from the SMMR and SSM/I instruments have been combined with earlier observations from ice charts and other sources to yield a time series of Arctic ice extent from the early 1900s onward. While the pre-satellite records are not as reliable, their trends are in good general agreement with the satellite record and indicate that Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since at least the early 1950s

 

[darkbeaver]

We should sieze the oportunity to pave the whole cap while it presents itself.

 

[Tonington]

Ice extent, downward trend. Ice thickness down. It probably won't be this summer, but I'd bet money that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer before 2020. Just look at the trends in ice age:

 

[L Gilbert]

quoting DB

We should sieze the oportunity to pave the whole cap while it presents itself.

Well, it'd certainly limit the production of mosquitos there.

 

[L Gilbert]

[deleted comment about the size of Tonnington's post]

 

[darkbeaver]

quoting DBWell, it'd certainly limit the production of mosquitos there.

We could supplement mosquito production elsewhere.

 

[darkbeaver]

Ice extent, downward trend. Ice thickness down. It probably won't be this summer, but I'd bet money that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer before 2020. Just look at the trends in ice age:

Is there any exoplanetary physics taken into account constructing these models?

 

[Tonington]

Those aren't models, it's a time series.

 

[darkbeaver]

Those aren't models, it's a time series.

Ok, but do we include data on conditions in the solar environment?

 

[Tonington]

Of course. If we didn't include changes in solar forcing, then we wouldn't have seasons. There is a solar lull right now and yet the temperature and it's secondary responses remains above the long term average. Funny huh?

 

[Extrafire]

How long a term?

 

[Tonington]

Depends on the database...The satellite records aren't old enough to even have a long term average really. Barely even a baseline period.

 

[Extrafire]

Exactly. There's really nothing to compare to.

 

[L Gilbert]

Graphs can be, well, pretty graphical sometimes.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A4.lrg.gif

Data @ NASA GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Graphs

 

[JLM]

Graphs can be, well, pretty graphical sometimes.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A4.lrg.gif

Data @ NASA GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Graphs

You noticed that too eh? :lol:

 

[Tonington]

Exactly. There's really nothing to compare to.

Except for the records that they have...

 

[YukonJack]

This Summer will also be about (roughly) the ten-thousandth ice-free Great Lakes.

Shall we cry???

 

[JLM]

This Summer will also be about (roughly) the ten-thousandth ice-free Great Lakes.

Shall we cry???

Is that significant?

 

[L Gilbert]

This Summer will also be about (roughly) the ten-thousandth ice-free Great Lakes.

Shall we cry???

Could go fishing instead.

 

[YukonJack]

My point is: Ice-free Pole or Ice-free Great Lakes, what in the hell is the difference????

Just as no human activity was responsible for the Ice Age or reversal therof, no human activity can be blamed for an Ice-free North Pole.

MOTHER NATURE, you know?!?!