Warning: World Oil Supplies Running Out Fast

[EagleSmack]

Yep, we heard that old malarkey back in 1974 when the Chicken Littles in the U.S. lowered the speed limit to 55 mph. Actually that part was a good idea, they should have left it there, but for safety reasons.

Going 55MPH was awful! I was so glad Reagan gave states the go ahead to raise the speed limits.

Of course our liberal governor at the time Dukakis was the last to cave in. Liberal Dems in Massachusetts HATE giving anything back to the people that they took away. Reagan told him to do as he was told or lose highway funding. Money is one thing liberals hate to lose more than power over the masses.

 

[TenPenny]

And with good reason, things are much different from the oil embargo of the 70s. I remember reading somewhere that energy costs are only a small fraction of total costs in manufacturing, transportation etc.

Let us consider a trucking company. The company has to pay to purchase and maintain the trucks, they have to pay the salary and benefits for truck drivers and other employees, they have to pay the rent for the office, utilities, insurance and so on. When you look at the totality, the cost of gasoline or diesel required to actually transport the stuff works out to be a small faction.

So even if the energy costs double or triple, that won’t cripple the economy. Sure it will cause some hardship, but I don’t see it being appreciable.

So yes, fruits will fly from all over the world, fresh flowers will continue to come from Central America (incidentally, when we visited Galapagos Islands, we were told that Ecuador, where Galapagos are located is the biggest exporter of roses in the world, that came as a surprise to me), Chinese imports will still be feasible. Only all of them will become a little more expensive.

Experience has shown that the economy can stand high fuel prices, some hardships perhaps, but certainly to the end of the world.

Suggest you read that book; he goes into a good discussion about this very issue.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Suggest you read that book; he goes into a good discussion about this very issue.

He seems to think pretty much the same way as I do. I will certainly look up the book.

 

[TenPenny]

He seems to think pretty much the same way as I do. I will certainly look up the book.

He does? I'll have to reread it.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

Yep, we heard that old malarkey back in 1974 when the Chicken Littles in the U.S. lowered the speed limit to 55 mph. Actually that part was a good idea, they should have left it there, but for safety reasons.

There is also a very good scientific reason for that, JLM. At 55 mph, the fuel consumption is minimum, you save on gas by going at 55 mph. Gas consumption goes up on both sides of 55 mph, faster and slower.

 

[SirJosephPorter]

He does? I'll have to reread it.

I am only guessing TenPenny. You told me twice to read the book, so I assumed he thinks the same way as I do.

 

[darkbeaver]

Entering the Greatest Depression in History
An Oil Bubble

In early July of 2009, the New York Times reported that, “The extreme volatility that has gripped oil markets for the last 18 months has shown no signs of slowing down, with oil prices more than doubling since the beginning of the year despite an exceptionally weak economy.” Instability in the oil and gas prices has led many to “fear it could jeopardize a global recovery.” Further, “It is also hobbling businesses and consumers,” as “A wild run on the oil markets has occurred in the last 12 months.” Oil prices reached a record high last summer at $145/barrel, and with the economic crisis they fell to $33/barrel in December. However, since the start of 2009, oil has risen 55% to $70/barrel.

As the Times article points out, “the recent rise in oil prices is reprising the debate from last year over the role of investors — or speculators — in the commodity markets.” Energy officials from the EU and OPEC met in June and concluded that, “the speculation issue had not been resolved yet and that the 2008 bubble could be repeated.”[25]

In June of 2009, Hedge Fund manager Michael Masters told the US Senate that, “Congress has not done enough to curb excessive speculation in the oil markets, leaving the country vulnerable to another price run-up in 2009.” He explained that, “oil prices are largely not determined by supply and demand but the trading desks of large Wall Street firms.” Because “Nothing was actually done by Congress to put an end to the problem of excessive speculation” in 2008, Masters explained, “there is nothing to prevent another bubble in oil prices in 2009. In fact, signs of another possible bubble are already beginning to appear.”[26]

In May of 2008, Goldman Sachs warned that oil could reach as much as $200/barrel within the next 12-24 months [up to May 2010]. Interestingly, “Goldman Sachs is one of the largest Wall Street investment banks trading oil and it could profit from an increase in prices.”[27] However, this is missing the key point. Not only would Goldman Sachs profit, but Goldman Sachs plays a major role in sending oil prices up in the first place.

As Ed Wallace pointed out in an article in Business Week in May of 2008, Goldman Sachs’ report placed the blame for such price hikes on “soaring demand” from China and the Middle East, combined with the contention that the Middle East has or would soon peak in its oil reserves. Wallace pointed out that:

Goldman Sachs was one of the founding partners of online commodities and futures marketplace Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). And ICE has been a primary focus of recent congressional investigations; it was named both in the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations' June 27, 2006, Staff Report and in the House Committee on Energy & Commerce's hearing last December. Those investigations looked into the unregulated trading in energy futures, and both concluded that energy prices' climb to stratospheric heights has been driven by the billions of dollars' worth of oil and natural gas futures contracts being placed on the ICE—which is not regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.[28]

Essentially, Goldman Sachs is one of the key speculators in the oil market, and thus, plays a major role in driving oil prices up on speculation. This must be reconsidered in light of the resurgent rise in oil prices in 2009. In July of 2009, “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record earnings as revenue from trading and stock underwriting reached all-time highs less than a year after the firm took $10 billion in U.S. rescue funds.”[29] Could one be related to the other?



bankers I tell ya

 

[Trex]

If memory serves correct they drilled a total of twelve holes. All areas considered worthy of further exploration were quickly placed under a moritorium. There is at least one spot in the Charlottes where oily substance bubbles to the surface.
It is not so much the oil companies that are ripping us off with high gas prices, rather it is speculators who play on the commodities market. All they own is a phone and a computer. Make them take physical delivery and prices will soon be in line with production costs.

To be more exact:

Quote, geological survey of Canada:
Geological and geophysical petroleum exploration of these basins has occurred at an
inconsistent pace since the beginning of the last century. The most vigorous and
extensive exploration was conducted by Shell Canada Ltd in the offshore portions of
Tofino and Queen Charlotte basins in the mid to late 1960s, culminating in 6 wells drilled
in the former basin and eight in the latter basin. Additional marine seismic surveys were
carried out by Chevron Canada Limited in 1971.

Four wells have been drilled into Tofino Basin strata on the Olympic Peninsula of
Washington. In addition to 23 wells drilled in the Fraser Lowlands of Georgia Basin, 95
wells have been drilled in the U.S. portion of the basin, the majority of which are shallow
and probably drilled as water wells. Several slim-hole wells have tested the sedimentary
strata in the Nanaimo, Parksville and Comox regions of Georgia Basin.

Given that the totality of this exploration in the three basins was not extensive, no
commercial quantities of hydrocarbons have been found. Before and since the
implementation of the moratoria on offshore drilling the federal government and
universities have conducted geological and marine geophysical studies, including gravity,
magnetic and seismic surveys, in the four basins.
Unquote.

Like I said before, no real luck so far.
Structure and sedimentary geology indicate multiple potential gas traps.
Oil not so much, but always possible especially further north.

Gas is pretty much a sure thing offshore BC but these days you cant give the stuff away in any case.
Why spend 1/2 mill a day drilling offshore BC when you can go up to the new Horn River shales on land and drill a great gas well as a sure thing for a tenth of the cost?

Trex

 

[Trex]

NASA - Titan's Surface Organics Surpass Oil Reserves on Earth

Saturn's orange moon Titan has hundreds of times more liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on Earth, according to new data from NASA's Cassini spacecraft. The hydrocarbons rain from the sky, collecting in vast deposits that form lakes and dunes. Image right: An artist's imagination of hydrocarbon pools, icy and rocky terrain on the surface of Saturn's largest moon Titan. Image credit: Steven Hobbs (Brisbane, Queensland, Australia).
+ Browse version of image

The new findings from the study led by Ralph Lorenz, Cassini radar team member from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Md., are reported in the Jan. 29 issue of the Geophysical Research Letters.

"Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material -- it's a giant factory of organic chemicals," said Lorenz. "This vast carbon inventory is an important window into the geology and climate history of Titan."

DB According to the Trex the Luddite Skeptic Titan was covered with forests and dynosaurs.db

No according to Trex oil on the planet earth comes from marine shales as source rock.

Also according to Trex you; DB, know nothing about petroleum geology.

Also according to Trex a couple of wacky Russians have been unsuccessfully trying to prove different origins of oil since the 1940's.
Please note that Russia as a massive producer of oil and gas seems to be concentrating all its drilling budget and vast fleet of drilling rigs on conventionally sourced hydrocarbons. Fairly successfully I might add.

I never said that hydrocarbons did not exist in space.
Methane and ethane are assumed to be fairly common in space.
What does the presence of methane and ethane in outer space have to with the origins of oil on earth anyway?

Ethane and methane do not require marine shales for formation even here on Earth

My limited course load in organic chemistry seemed to indicate that synthesis of some organics simply requires hydrogen, carbon, oxygen, heat and pressure.Or some combination thereof.
I believe the germans synthesized oil from coal as early as the 1940's.

But what does that have to do with you making cut and paste posts about things you really don't understand DB?

Trex

 

[karrie]

according to what I hear in the petroleum industry, conventional oil (cheap drilling fast flowing oil) is all but tapped and gone. That doesn't mean oil is gone, but, it does mean peak oil has hit according to SOME peak oil theory. Other peak oil theory puts peak oil at when it's gone altogether, depending on the brains behind the person writing about it. We haven't hit the vanishing point yet.

What the lack of conventional oil means though is that tar sands, and shale formations, are where we will be needing to seek out oil. That means that it's going to get more and more expensive to get at, as it will require mining, or in situ steam extraction, both pricey propositions compared to conventional oil.

 

[TenPenny]

Back when I was a wee lad, I spent a few summers in a cottage next to a group of Oceanographers from the U of T, who were doing research on the dunes and lagoons on the east coast of NB. Their research was into how the dunes formed and changed, and the organic growth in the lagoons behind the dunes...it was partly funded by the oil companies, because it allowed them to learn more about where the oil would be found in Alberta.

 

[Trex]

Todays sand dunes are tomorrows sandstones.
Petroleum reservoirs are primarily carbonates (old reefs) or sandstones (old beaches and dunes).
For those researchers it was probably time and money well spent.
And it sounds like a nice spot to work as well.
Gotta beat 8 hours a day in a cube.

Trex

 

[AnnaG]

About the Max speed limit on the highway, dropping speed to 100 Kmph from 110 Kmph is effective at using less fuel but it isn't nearly as effective as simply keeping a steady rate of speed instead of constantly speeding up and slowing down.

Anyway, when prices went screwy last year (just before tourist season as usual), it didn't make much of a dent in our bank account because we simply traveled less (went to visit fewer neighbors, went boating less, went to town for supplies every 2nd week instead of every week, etc). We cut back more this year when the prices started going up (just before tourist season as usual). The more prices go up the less fuel people will use, IMO. But people will buy a new vehicle at $20K to replace their older vehicle ($10K for a decent used) that got 5 kliks less per liter than the new one. That's funny as hell, IMO, as it takes a lot of time before the extra 5kliks per liter adds up to the $10K difference.

 

[MHz]

I see you've got your paranoia switch set to 'high' this morning.

Do you ever get tired of it?

What you see isn't always what you get. Sometimes 'facts' just don't support 'similar facts'. Finding out why is sometimes worth it. For instance, court cases that last 20 years. I know of two, one a treaty issue between Members of the First Nations and the Federal Gov. The 2nd is a case involving a friend who had a company that was 'conspired' into the hands of a 3rd party, a #rd Company in Alberta. The gravel pit turns out not to be most valuable for the gravel (although when exhausted it is not small either) because of location. Turns out that there was prior knowledge by the ' #rd Company' that the location was 1 of 4 for the site of a Grand Alberta Paper Mill. There were also Lawyers involved as being not so nice and quite willing to commit crimes in order to achieve his goals.
The reason I am interested is in the 'partnership contract' that allowed the foothold was a legal document. When an end was sought it would be through registered letters. The way they did it was to arrive at the pit in a big black car, demand he get in, drove him to their office and told him to sign some papers that set in motion the sale of the pit to my former employer.
Ah....the plot thickens.
Seriously, more than 20 years to sue an old business partner???? At 10 or 12 years I got in touch with the Law Society of Alberta to ask if things were usually run the way this particular case was being run. I thought it was usually the Law Society who reigned in wayward Lawyers, and pay damages to those wronged. Apparently not in this case. I find that strange, that makes me curious (and worth further investigation).

The cases for the treaty issue should be able to be accessed to see if there were any deliberate delaying tactics, in the other case not one publication by any court (that I have been able to find, online does not go that far back so it might be as easy to fix as a search done from a courthouse). I also find that a bit strange and also worth further investigation.

How is the above any different from what DB mentioned? Documents are out there that confirm those statements. You don't believe them, you believe some other document somebody has shown you.

 

[MHz]

About the Max speed limit on the highway, dropping speed to 100 Kmph from 110 Kmph is effective at using less fuel but it isn't nearly as effective as simply keeping a steady rate of speed instead of constantly speeding up and slowing down.

How about raising the fast lane to 150 if there are at least 10 vehicles that are 'drafting' each other.

 

[AnnaG]

How about raising the fast lane to 150 if there are at least 10 vehicles that are 'drafting' each other.

lol Some places in Canada just don't have the room for much more than 2 lanes. (Around here for instance) but I always liked the idea of an autobahn. People on the freeway at the coast usually do like 40 kliks over or else they do the speed limit. It's tough to find a middle speed where you aren'y holding up traffic and aren't slowing down for some nitwit. lol And they ALL draft if you do hold them up.

 

[petros]

It is not so much the oil companies that are ripping us off with high gas prices, rather it is speculators who play on the commodities market. All they own is a phone and a computer. Make them take physical delivery and prices will soon be in line with production costs.

It is speculators who raise the prices by a nickle every long weekend or raise prices by a dime to fund refineries and pipelines?

Wow. Who knew?

 

[petros]

How about raising the fast lane to 150 if there are at least 10 vehicles that are 'drafting' each other.

There is no "fast lane". All lanes have the same speed limit.

 

[MHz]

lol Some places in Canada just don't have the room for much more than 2 lanes. (Around here for instance) but I always liked the idea of an autobahn. People on the freeway at the coast usually do like 40 kliks over or else they do the speed limit. It's tough to find a middle speed where you aren'y holding up traffic and aren't slowing down for some nitwit. lol And they ALL draft if you do hold them up.

I'm sure they have the room, what they lack is the volume of traffic that would warrant the cost of twin lanes.

There is no "fast lane". All lanes have the same speed limit.

What does a sign that reads 'slower traffic keep to the right except for passing' indicate?

 

[darkbeaver]

No according to Trex oil on the planet earth comes from marine shales as source rock.

Also according to Trex you; DB, know nothing about petroleum geology.

Also according to Trex a couple of wacky Russians have been unsuccessfully trying to prove different origins of oil since the 1940's.
Please note that Russia as a massive producer of oil and gas seems to be concentrating all its drilling budget and vast fleet of drilling rigs on conventionally sourced hydrocarbons. Fairly successfully I might add.

I never said that hydrocarbons did not exist in space.
Methane and ethane are assumed to be fairly common in space.
What does the presence of methane and ethane in outer space have to with the origins of oil on earth anyway?

Ethane and methane do not require marine shales for formation even here on Earth

My limited course load in organic chemistry seemed to indicate that synthesis of some organics simply requires hydrogen, carbon, oxygen, heat and pressure.Or some combination thereof.
I believe the germans synthesized oil from coal as early as the 1940's.

But what does that have to do with you making cut and paste posts about things you really don't understand DB?

Trex

Me, a know nothing? What a revelation. When and if you ever understand that, of yourself, then it will be important.