Self help is the first step, I wish you the best of luck. You misspelled ego by the way.:smile:
Warning: World Oil Supplies Running Out Fast
- Thread starter dumpthemonarchy
- Start date
Self help is the first step, I wish you the best of luck. You misspelled ego by the way.:smile:
Its just another opinion piece about all the oil running out tomorrow.
The reality is the energy industry is one of the largest and most complex systems on the planet.
Oil is nothing less than the suns energy concentrated and stored in a relatively useful way.
And because oil is non-renewable we started to run out of it the second we burned the very first cupful.
Peak Oil, written by Hubbard(a Shell geologist, I believe) years and years ago was certainly a book far ahead of its time.
And by and large the book is probably mostly correct in all its claims.
And its possible we hit "peak oil" as early as the late 70's or mid 80's.
Depends of course on how you define "peak oil"
I recommend reading the book.
Why read other peoples opinions about a book when you can read the real thing?
In short we are probably plateaued.
And we probably have been for years.
And its complicated.
For example some countries have large reserves and don't produce much comparatively speaking like Iran.
Some countries have lesser booked reserves but produce huge amounts like the Americans which are the third biggest producers in the world.
And some countries are assumed to have large potential reserves but produce relatively little and nobody really knows for sure what they have, like Iraq.
And then there is Canada with huge oil sands reserves( second largest booked reserves in the world) which are pricey to develop and environmentally unfashionable.
So oil is going to get more expensive and thats a fact.
There is lots of it out there but every barrel gets more and more costly to produce.
In the good old days you could bang down a well in a week or two in Texas or Leduc for 3 or 4 hundred thousand.
Complete it and tie it in for probably under half a mill.
And thats a crap well relatively speaking.
In Saudi they punched them down and they came in flowing at up to a hundred thousand barrels a day.
Do the math.
Those days are over.
All the easy oil is found.
So lets go offshore and drill into the unexplored deep-water of the American Gulf Coast.
That semi-sub drilling rig is going to run you a half mill a day rental bare bones.
And you start paying the second you start dragging it out to your location.
Lets just say your little exploratory well costs 100 million to drill.
Rule of thumb is 50% to 75% of exploratory wells are dusters depending on region.
Bummer you just drilled a one hundred million dollar dry hole.
Care to try again?
Or perhaps not?
But the real problem is infrastructure and refineries.
Right now North America is awash in oil.
Rigs are idled from sea to sea.
But the Calgary gas stations are all out of gas.
What's up with that?
Virtually nobody in Canada, the United States or Europe is building new refineries to handle future requirements.
Why?
Blame the regulators and the environmentalists.
With a 10 to 15 year lag time no investor is willing to risk his money building a petrochemical complex these days.
Facing the present safety,governmental and environmental regulations it just becomes a non starter.
So everyone just expands and upgrades the existing old grandfathered in refineries.
Which if you think about is the worst thing we could do environmentally.
We need to mothball those leaky, stinky, archaic old refineries.
And build state of the art new refineries with all available environmental and safety
protocols and emission restrictions in place.
It just ain't gonna happen, carbon just isn't cool these days.
So pretty much all that Alberta crude is now going to flow down to the American mid west and gulf coast to be refined in the rusty old American refineries that are currently in place.
And Canada's few refineries are pretty much being run into the ground at absolute maximum capacity.
And thats why we run out of gas in Calgary.
Even when we are up to our ears in crude oil and all the riggers are getting pink slipped.
And don't even get me started on natural gas.
By far the most environmentally friendly non renewable energy source.
Burn it and you get water vapor and CO2 as an exhaust product.
But CO2 is a bad and evil thing we are told and Obama is going after Canadian hydrocarbon production with his "cap and trade" policies.
The United States of America produces over half of its electricity by burning coal.
Burning coal is the dirtiest, most polluting form of energy production in use today.
But Canada is absolutely awash in natural gas.
Energy and utility companies are shutting it in left ,right and center.
Cant give the stuff away.
By simply switching from dirty coal to clean gas Canada and the United States could massively reduce all air born pollutants.
It's not going to happen.
And here is why.
The environmentalists are going to continue to howl about CO2 being produced by burning natural gas.
And they are going to demand we switch to wind turbines,solar cells and bicycles.
So as a result the dirty old coal fired generators will not be replaced by clean gas fired generating facilities.
And there is no way in hell half the generating capacity of the United States is going to be replaced by solar cells, wind turbines or amphetamine enhanced hamster driven generators.
And so the existing creaky, rusting old infrastructure remains.
With no replacements in sight.
So it's not all about the amount of oil we can pump.
Rigs are racked all over the world, Alberta's roughnecks are getting cut loose on a daily basis.
Alberta now has the highest per capita rate of increase in EU claims provincially.
Oil sands projects are being cancelled non stop.
Gas is being shut in all over North America.
And even if we did run out of oil it's reasonably easy to make synthetic oil replacements out of natural gas and coal.
So excuse me if I feel that we probably are OK for a week or two yet energy wise.
But I do agree that gas at the pump has nowhere to go but up.
Trex
The reality is the energy industry is one of the largest and most complex systems on the planet.
Oil is nothing less than the suns energy concentrated and stored in a relatively useful way.
And because oil is non-renewable we started to run out of it the second we burned the very first cupful.
Peak Oil, written by Hubbard(a Shell geologist, I believe) years and years ago was certainly a book far ahead of its time.
And by and large the book is probably mostly correct in all its claims.
And its possible we hit "peak oil" as early as the late 70's or mid 80's.
Depends of course on how you define "peak oil"
I recommend reading the book.
Why read other peoples opinions about a book when you can read the real thing?
In short we are probably plateaued.
And we probably have been for years.
And its complicated.
For example some countries have large reserves and don't produce much comparatively speaking like Iran.
Some countries have lesser booked reserves but produce huge amounts like the Americans which are the third biggest producers in the world.
And some countries are assumed to have large potential reserves but produce relatively little and nobody really knows for sure what they have, like Iraq.
And then there is Canada with huge oil sands reserves( second largest booked reserves in the world) which are pricey to develop and environmentally unfashionable.
So oil is going to get more expensive and thats a fact.
There is lots of it out there but every barrel gets more and more costly to produce.
In the good old days you could bang down a well in a week or two in Texas or Leduc for 3 or 4 hundred thousand.
Complete it and tie it in for probably under half a mill.
And thats a crap well relatively speaking.
In Saudi they punched them down and they came in flowing at up to a hundred thousand barrels a day.
Do the math.
Those days are over.
All the easy oil is found.
So lets go offshore and drill into the unexplored deep-water of the American Gulf Coast.
That semi-sub drilling rig is going to run you a half mill a day rental bare bones.
And you start paying the second you start dragging it out to your location.
Lets just say your little exploratory well costs 100 million to drill.
Rule of thumb is 50% to 75% of exploratory wells are dusters depending on region.
Bummer you just drilled a one hundred million dollar dry hole.
Care to try again?
Or perhaps not?
But the real problem is infrastructure and refineries.
Right now North America is awash in oil.
Rigs are idled from sea to sea.
But the Calgary gas stations are all out of gas.
What's up with that?
Virtually nobody in Canada, the United States or Europe is building new refineries to handle future requirements.
Why?
Blame the regulators and the environmentalists.
With a 10 to 15 year lag time no investor is willing to risk his money building a petrochemical complex these days.
Facing the present safety,governmental and environmental regulations it just becomes a non starter.
So everyone just expands and upgrades the existing old grandfathered in refineries.
Which if you think about is the worst thing we could do environmentally.
We need to mothball those leaky, stinky, archaic old refineries.
And build state of the art new refineries with all available environmental and safety
protocols and emission restrictions in place.
It just ain't gonna happen, carbon just isn't cool these days.
So pretty much all that Alberta crude is now going to flow down to the American mid west and gulf coast to be refined in the rusty old American refineries that are currently in place.
And Canada's few refineries are pretty much being run into the ground at absolute maximum capacity.
And thats why we run out of gas in Calgary.
Even when we are up to our ears in crude oil and all the riggers are getting pink slipped.
And don't even get me started on natural gas.
By far the most environmentally friendly non renewable energy source.
Burn it and you get water vapor and CO2 as an exhaust product.
But CO2 is a bad and evil thing we are told and Obama is going after Canadian hydrocarbon production with his "cap and trade" policies.
The United States of America produces over half of its electricity by burning coal.
Burning coal is the dirtiest, most polluting form of energy production in use today.
But Canada is absolutely awash in natural gas.
Energy and utility companies are shutting it in left ,right and center.
Cant give the stuff away.
By simply switching from dirty coal to clean gas Canada and the United States could massively reduce all air born pollutants.
It's not going to happen.
And here is why.
The environmentalists are going to continue to howl about CO2 being produced by burning natural gas.
And they are going to demand we switch to wind turbines,solar cells and bicycles.
So as a result the dirty old coal fired generators will not be replaced by clean gas fired generating facilities.
And there is no way in hell half the generating capacity of the United States is going to be replaced by solar cells, wind turbines or amphetamine enhanced hamster driven generators.
And so the existing creaky, rusting old infrastructure remains.
With no replacements in sight.
So it's not all about the amount of oil we can pump.
Rigs are racked all over the world, Alberta's roughnecks are getting cut loose on a daily basis.
Alberta now has the highest per capita rate of increase in EU claims provincially.
Oil sands projects are being cancelled non stop.
Gas is being shut in all over North America.
And even if we did run out of oil it's reasonably easy to make synthetic oil replacements out of natural gas and coal.
So excuse me if I feel that we probably are OK for a week or two yet energy wise.
But I do agree that gas at the pump has nowhere to go but up.
Trex
Because oil is a psychological mind-bending agent, and consumption of oil leads directly to death.
What a load of bs. The world's consumption of oil today is about 30 billion barrels (corrected) a year. The oil reserves in the tar sands alone are about 1.7 trillion or a 50+ year supply (corrected) at current levels. The rest of the world's supply would double that. The most accessible oil has been found, but deep oil, shale oil, ocean oil has yet to be found, much less tapped. It seems with sound technological advancement we will be able to use oil more efficiently. There are theories that have yet to be explored that hydrocarbons might have been produced from non organic origins, and exist deep in the earth's crust.
This oil myth is a recurrent theme of radical environmentalists, and, business operations that will profit from creating an artificial scarcity of oil. In 1970 the Club of Rome put out a book called the Limits of Growth, which projected that we would be out of oil by the start of the 21st Century. In fact we have more accessible reserves now than we did then.
Oil will never reach $300 a barrel in current dollars. The economics of oil predict that if oil is properly managed its cost will reflect the cost of extraction, refining and distribution with a profit margin maybe of 5%. We are well above that now, because of oil company and national 'trust' operations price gouging. Even the tar sands oil break even price is reached when oil is about $50 a barrel. They get away with it because they argue it is a disincentive to use petroleum, and create Anthropocentric Global Warming, a gigantic fraud completely without scientific merit.
The whole industry needs greater national and international regulation. But this article is a load of crap.
This oil myth is a recurrent theme of radical environmentalists, and, business operations that will profit from creating an artificial scarcity of oil. In 1970 the Club of Rome put out a book called the Limits of Growth, which projected that we would be out of oil by the start of the 21st Century. In fact we have more accessible reserves now than we did then.
Oil will never reach $300 a barrel in current dollars. The economics of oil predict that if oil is properly managed its cost will reflect the cost of extraction, refining and distribution with a profit margin maybe of 5%. We are well above that now, because of oil company and national 'trust' operations price gouging. Even the tar sands oil break even price is reached when oil is about $50 a barrel. They get away with it because they argue it is a disincentive to use petroleum, and create Anthropocentric Global Warming, a gigantic fraud completely without scientific merit.
The whole industry needs greater national and international regulation. But this article is a load of crap.
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More like 85,000,000 per day, which works out to 31 billion per year.
But why quibble over simple math errors.
I will submit to binding arbitration, perhaps the modulators can convene a special session in a neutral city and decide the matter before hostilities spiral out of control.:lol:
July 31, 2009
Fossil Fuels Without the Fossils? New Research Says It's Possible
By KATIE HOWELL of Greenwire
A theory long on the fringes of petroleum science gained some support from new research this week, but it is probably not enough to launch the concept into the mainstream.
The idea: What if fossil fuels were not fossil after all? What if hydrocarbons could form from chemical reactions deep inside the earth, rather than from the "pressure cooking" of organic matter?
"[Abiogenic] origin of oil has been proposed by many before, but there are arguments pro and contra," said Alexander Goncharov, a geophysicist at the Carnegie Institution.
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/0...il-fuels-without-the-fossils-new-research-sa-
"The capital fact to note is that petroleum was born in the depths of the Earth, and it is only there that we must seek its origin." -- Dmitri Mendeleyev, chemist, 1877
"It may be supposed that naphta was produced by the action of water penetrating through the crevices of the strata during the upheaval of mountain chains because water with iron carbide ought to give iron oxide and hydrocarbons." -- Dmitri Mendeleyev, chemist, 1877
"Whether naphta was formed by organic matter is very doubtful, as it is found in the most ancient Silurian [Ordovician] strata which correspond with the epochs of the earth's existence when there was very little organic matter; it could not penetrate from the higher to the lower (more ancient) strata as it floats on water (and water penetrates through all strata)." -- Dmitri Mendeleyev, chemist, 1877
"Do these fuels result always and necessarily in one way from the decomposition of a pre-existing organic substance? Is it thus with the hydrocarbons so frequently observed in volcanic eruptions and emanations, and to which M. Ch. Sainte-Claire Deville has called attention in recent years? Finally, must one assign a parralel origin to carbonaceous matter and to hydrocarbons contained in certain meteorites, and which appear to have an origin foreign to our planet? These are questions on which the opinion of many distinguished geologists does not as yet appear to be fixed." -- Marcellin Berthelot, chemist, 1866
"The hydrogen gas evolved from volcanoes, or from chasms in the earth during earthquakes, is generally combined with sulphur or carbon; it is probably formed by the decompostion of water, when it finds access to subterranean fire." -- Robert Bakewell, geologist, 1813
"Petroleum is the product of a distillation from great depth and issues from the primitive rocks beneath which the forces of all volcanic action lie." -- Alexander Von Humboldt, naturalist, 1804
Fossil Fuels Without the Fossils? New Research Says It's Possible
By KATIE HOWELL of Greenwire
A theory long on the fringes of petroleum science gained some support from new research this week, but it is probably not enough to launch the concept into the mainstream.
The idea: What if fossil fuels were not fossil after all? What if hydrocarbons could form from chemical reactions deep inside the earth, rather than from the "pressure cooking" of organic matter?
"[Abiogenic] origin of oil has been proposed by many before, but there are arguments pro and contra," said Alexander Goncharov, a geophysicist at the Carnegie Institution.
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/0...il-fuels-without-the-fossils-new-research-sa-
ScienceDaily (July 27, 2009) — The oil and gas that fuels our homes and cars started out as living organisms that died, were compressed, and heated under heavy layers of sediments in the Earth's crust. Scientists have debated for years whether some of these hydrocarbons could also have been created deeper in the Earth and formed without organic matter. Now for the first time, scientists have found that ethane and heavier hydrocarbons can be synthesized under the pressure-temperature conditions of the upper mantle —the layer of Earth under the crust and on top of the core.
The research was conducted by scientists at the Carnegie Institution's Geophysical Laboratory, with colleagues from Russia and Sweden, and is published in the July 26, advanced online issue of Nature Geoscience.
How original...pfff... big ass rolleyes.The research was conducted by scientists at the Carnegie Institution's Geophysical Laboratory, with colleagues from Russia and Sweden, and is published in the July 26, advanced online issue of Nature Geoscience.
"The capital fact to note is that petroleum was born in the depths of the Earth, and it is only there that we must seek its origin." -- Dmitri Mendeleyev, chemist, 1877
"It may be supposed that naphta was produced by the action of water penetrating through the crevices of the strata during the upheaval of mountain chains because water with iron carbide ought to give iron oxide and hydrocarbons." -- Dmitri Mendeleyev, chemist, 1877
"Whether naphta was formed by organic matter is very doubtful, as it is found in the most ancient Silurian [Ordovician] strata which correspond with the epochs of the earth's existence when there was very little organic matter; it could not penetrate from the higher to the lower (more ancient) strata as it floats on water (and water penetrates through all strata)." -- Dmitri Mendeleyev, chemist, 1877
"Do these fuels result always and necessarily in one way from the decomposition of a pre-existing organic substance? Is it thus with the hydrocarbons so frequently observed in volcanic eruptions and emanations, and to which M. Ch. Sainte-Claire Deville has called attention in recent years? Finally, must one assign a parralel origin to carbonaceous matter and to hydrocarbons contained in certain meteorites, and which appear to have an origin foreign to our planet? These are questions on which the opinion of many distinguished geologists does not as yet appear to be fixed." -- Marcellin Berthelot, chemist, 1866
"The hydrogen gas evolved from volcanoes, or from chasms in the earth during earthquakes, is generally combined with sulphur or carbon; it is probably formed by the decompostion of water, when it finds access to subterranean fire." -- Robert Bakewell, geologist, 1813
"Petroleum is the product of a distillation from great depth and issues from the primitive rocks beneath which the forces of all volcanic action lie." -- Alexander Von Humboldt, naturalist, 1804
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Mea Culpa, my source said oil was up about 3MM barrels a day instead of it was 3MM per day. Even so the the world's supply stands at about 100 years at current levels, assuming NOTHING more is found.
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Now if you believe in commercial conspiracy, and you would be classed an idiot not to, you can of your own thinking put together the plan to keep oil a very much more valuable commodity than it has really ever has been and further to that you get a little taste of who and how humanity is in fact steered by greedy destructive hands indeed.
That statement right there pretty well ensures that every single thing you say is utter and complete bull****.
Shortage? Not very soon ....
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
I don't think the major oil companies actually conspire to jerk us around on pricing, but they sure don't exercise strong competition amongst themselves.
Kind of like the gas stations in this area; as soon as one ups its prices for fuel, within minutes, they all do, regardless if they are still using up the tanks they bought at the lower price. The entire industry is usurious.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
I don't think the major oil companies actually conspire to jerk us around on pricing, but they sure don't exercise strong competition amongst themselves.
Kind of like the gas stations in this area; as soon as one ups its prices for fuel, within minutes, they all do, regardless if they are still using up the tanks they bought at the lower price. The entire industry is usurious.
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There have been multiple wells drilled offshore the BC coast in the 60's and 70's.
Right up into the Charlottes.
All were pretty much dry.
Seismic was also shot offshore at the same time.
More recently Coneco drilled a couple in Whiterock and I think Abbotsford in the 90's.
Traces of gas, no oil.
So its totally unproven and probably unlikely that there is "lots of oil" offshore BC.
There could be some good deposits of natural gas liquids or condensate however.
Because of the complex folding and faulting it is however fairly likely there are multiple traps containing natural gas.
The only way to find out for sure is to see if majors want to drill.
Trex
In this case modesty would be helpful.
You don't have a clue what your talking about.
Oil source rock is marine shales.
Period.
The one or two quibbling exceptions are not worth worrying about.
The marine shales must be capped with an impermeable layer (like salts).
They need to be buried and squeezed at a defined pressure.
They need to be cooked at a defined temperature for a fixed length of time.
If the recipe isn't followed correctly you get coal or natural gas or bitumens.
Thousands upon thousands of earth scientists like sedimentary petrologists, geophysicists, historical geologists and the like spend years and years studying the minutue of the topic.
The nut-bar "deep oil, other sources" crowd that you have quoted in this thread have never been proven.
They have however been disproven countless times.
In fact I personally remember when some nutty folks tried to drill a deep well to prove the "deeper"source of the Fort MacMurray tar sands.
Cost millions and disproved their own wacky theories.
Just quoting some completely unsubstantiated and unproven theory is really not much
to flatter yourself about.
Trex
Ummm,
Since I was directly involved with supplying engineering services to the dry Coneco holes does that make me part of the conspiracy?
And since our services tended to confirm that there was not really produceable amounts of hydrocarbons does that make it my conspiracy?
And why wasn't I told?
Trex
Logic gets you there TenPenny you have but to follow the sticky feet and fingers down the yellow brick road to the velvet curtain. The world is a stranger thing than you or I imagine. If you're wrong about me it at least will make the near future very interesting for you and if you're right it won't make any difference at all to you but it will mean the death of me.