This summer may see first ice-free North Pole

Gilgamesh

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This summer may see first ice-free North Pole


SETH BORENSTEIN
The Associated Press


WASHINGTON A leading ice scientist says there's a 50-50 chance that the North Pole will be ice-free this summer, which would be a first in recorded history.
He says the weather and ocean conditions in the next couple of weeks will determine how much of the sea ice will melt, and early signs are not good.
Mark Serreze is a senior researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colo. He says the chances for a total meltdown at the pole are higher than ever because the layer of ice coating the sea is thinner than ever.
Mr. Serreze says there is nothing scientifically significant about the North Pole, but there is a cultural and symbolic importance.
Last August, the Northwest Passage was open to navigation for the first time in memory.
Preliminary February and March data from a NASA satellite shows that the circle of ice surrounding the North Pole is considerably thinner than scientists have seen during the five years the satellite has been taking pictures, NASA ice scientist Jay Zwally said Friday. He thinks there is slightly less than a 50-50 chance the North Pole will be ice-free.
Last year was a record year for ice melt all over the Arctic and the ice band surrounding the North Pole is even thinner now.
A large area at the North Pole and surrounding the North Pole is first-year ice, Mr. Serreze said. That's the stuff that tends to melt out in the summer because it's thin.
A more conservative ice scientist, Cecilia Bitz at the University of Washington, put the odds of a North Pole without ice closer to 1-in-4. Even that is far worse than climate models had predicted, which was 1-in-70 some time in the next decade, she said.
But both she and Mr. Serreze agree it's just a matter of time.
I would guess within the next 10 years it would happen at least once, Ms. Bitz said.
Already, figures from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show sea ice in the Arctic as a whole at about the same level now as it was at its low point last year in late June and early July.
The explanation is a warming climate and a weather phenomenon, scientists said.
For the last couple of decades, there has been a steady melt of Arctic sea ice, which covers only the ocean and which thins during summer and refreezes in winter. In recent years, it has gradually become thinner because more of it has been melting as the Earth's temperature rises.
Then, this past winter, there was a natural weather shift called the Arctic Oscillation, sort of a cold weather cousin to El Nino. That oscillation caused a change in winds and ocean that accelerated a normal flushing of sea ice in the Arctic. That pushed the older thicker sea ice that had been over the North Pole south toward Greenland and eventually out of the Arctic, Mr. Serreze said. That left just a thin one-year layer of ice that previously covered part of Siberia.
This would not be surprising and it would not be new.

This happens regularly and was noted even back in the 1600's.
 

Curious Cdn

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European explorers trying to find a way through the Northern passage.

Do you have anymore moronic questions?

European explorers in the 1600s didn't get anywhere near the pole. You need to look at a globe, sometime. The Pole is one hell of a long way North of Baffin Island (3000 kms!) which, by the way, is still the same latitude as the UK. There were no explorers near enough to the Pole to measure anything until the turn of the 20th century. Nice try, though.
 

taxslave

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European explorers in the 1600s didn't get anywhere near the pole. You need to look at a globe, sometime. The Pole is one hell of a long way North of Baffin Island (3000 kms!) which, by the way, is still the same latitude as the UK. There were no explorers near enough to the Pole to measure anything until the turn of the 20th century. Nice try, though.
And no Europeans were in North merica until 1492.
 

Gilgamesh

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Strange as it may seem, the 1600's were 200 years after the 1400's.

Explorers may not have been exactly at the pole per se but they noted that ice coverage varied greatly.

Segue forward to the 1950's when the USS Skate surfaced exactly at the pole and the picture shows no ice at all in any direction. Subsequent years following had huge ice buildups.

Of course, as Suzuki usually suggests, this was all part of a plot by Big Oil.

A short incomplete list of expeditions into the Arctic sea.

This list of Arctic expeditions is a timeline of historic expeditions in, and explorers of, the Arctic. 1 Pre-expedition; 2 1400s; 3 1500s; 4 1600s; 5 1700s; 6 1800s; 7 1900s -------------
 

Curious Cdn

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Strange as it may seem, the 1600's were 200 years after the 1400's.

Explorers may not have been exactly at the pole per se but they noted that ice coverage varied greatly.

Segue forward to the 1950's when the USS Skate surfaced exactly at the pole and the picture shows no ice at all in any direction. Subsequent years following had huge ice buildups.

Of course, as Suzuki usually suggests, this was all part of a plot by Big Oil.

A short incomplete list of expeditions into the Arctic sea.

This list of Arctic expeditions is a timeline of historic expeditions in, and explorers of, the Arctic. 1 Pre-expedition; 2 1400s; 3 1500s; 4 1600s; 5 1700s; 6 1800s; 7 1900s -------------

They didn't go anywhere near the Pole.

You must live in Calgary. That's where all of the country's climates experts seem to be "clustered".
 

Curious Cdn

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We absolutely refuse to allow Suzuki to live in YYC and as we all know, the center of global warming knowledge has it's epicenter on on an expert that focuses on studying fruit flies have sex.

I don't give a flying feck about Suzuki or his agenda. The Arctic Pole ice is getting thinner and there are big gaps, now, in the summer and we can see it from space. Suzuki didn't invent any of this and you can't make it go away for ideological reasons.

PS Walter is an asshole.
 
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Danbones

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This summer we would like to see an ice free georgian bay.
;)
...and we are halfway between the equator and the north pole.
 

captain morgan

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I don't give a flying feck about Suzuki or his agenda.

'Experts in climate'... Your words

The Arctic Pole ice is getting thinner and there are big gaps, now, in the summer and we can see it from space. Suzuki didn't invent any of this and you can't make it go away for ideological reasons.

Thinner?... So what?

Are you aware that the globe has experienced multiple episodes of continental glaciation long before mankind ever walked the Earth?

Did you ever get the memo on that?
 

Danbones

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Yes, it is much thinner than the two miles thick it was 12000 years ago when the sea was 400 feet lower. Like...Steven King Thinner.

As a matter of fact, if you believe these nuts that say there was no civilizations before ours,
:)
then global warming made man.
 

Curious Cdn

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Over a year into his administration, Trump still hasn't been able to muzzle NASA ... yet. Maybe, after sacking Tillerson, his connections to Dallas are waning, a bit.

 

Gilgamesh

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They didn't go anywhere near the Pole.

You must live in Calgary. That's where all of the country's climates experts seem to be "clustered".
1. No one knows exactly where they got to. Even you.


You are wrong again.

2. Not even remotely near to Calgary or even Alberta.

Wrong yet again.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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1. No one knows exactly where they got to. Even you.


You are wrong again.

2. Not even remotely near to Calgary or even Alberta.

Wrong yet again.

Yes, asshole. Explorers didn't go to the North Pole in the Rennaissance.

I have to conclude that you come from somewhere in the United States, based on your obviously sub-standard education.
 

Gilgamesh

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Nov 15, 2014
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Yes, asshole. Explorers didn't go to the North Pole in the Rennaissance.

I have to conclude that you come from somewhere in the United States, based on your obviously sub-standard education.
Your ignorance of history shines like a new moon.

Hint: The 1600s were indeed a time of exploration including unsuccessful attempts at finding a Northwest Passage. That plus geophysical evidence shows the ice coverage can vary dramatically from year to year.


I am a product of limeyland post graduate education which of course is irrelevant to this discussion.

Now go play in your sandbox,fool.
 

darkbeaver

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Yes, it is much thinner than the two miles thick it was 12000 years ago when the sea was 400 feet lower. Like...Steven King Thinner.

As a matter of fact, if you believe these nuts that say there was no civilizations before ours,
:)
then global warming made man.

The insane idea that hominoids could change planetary physics speaks to that subjects not being fully and honestly covered or instilled in the average taxpayer during thier stay in public education. An entirely entertaining qlimpse at ruins left arround in heaps all over the world reveals stone cutting that requires CNC like quality, these products were not made with bronze chisles in diorite stones nor basalt, nor granite etc, history is fictionized as soon as it happens.
Last week is clouded in mystery.
Ice free , free of ice, much reduced winter, they preached, they,d better have soom soon to save them from the gallows that they so richly deserve. You spoke of palm trees blooming in Nova Scotia, where are they? I would rather wring your neck than pay a carbon tax. You want me to believe that money can change the climate, reposition the planet, you shouldn,t be allowed to operate a motor vehicle!

I don,t mean you Db. I ,m just overreacting a bit to the notion of us skin bags changeing planetary phizics. The fukking math precludes such an event in my opinion. The Sun clearly rules in these coordinates I reckon. We are much better off to drink the tax monies levied upon us for carbon sequestration than to pay it and invest in fraud and lunacy. Koolaid for the house, it,s on me. Digital dollars, big fukkin deal, you can live how long on a digital diet?