Trump Making Alberta 51st State
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Could Alberta become 51st state with referendum?
The prediction market is taking bets on whether Alberta will schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027
Author of the article
enette Wilford
Published Mar 16, 2026 • 2 minute read
Premier Danielle Smith speaks during a press conference at McDougall Centre in Calgary on Jan. 2, 2026.
Premier Danielle Smith speaks during a press conference at McDougall Centre in Calgary on Jan. 2, 2026. Photo by Gavin Young /Postmedia
Alberta could become America’s 51st state if the province’s projected referendum goes according to plan.
The western province has not been quiet about it wanting its independence from Canada and this is the year it could happen, according to Polymarket.
The prediction market is taking bets on whether Alberta will schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027, with bettors suggesting a “55% chance” that the province could become the 51st state — with that figure only going higher on Polymarket’s live page.
While one person noted that last year it was only at 20%, someone on X called 55% “a long shot.”
However, another commented on the inevitable: “Alberta is so done with Canada.”
One commenter pointed out that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith already announced the referendum for Oct. 19, 2026, and “publicly committed to adding the independence question to that ballot if the petition succeeds.”
They added: “So once signatures are verified, the referendum is effectively already scheduled,” while also noting that the question — ‘Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?’ — “unambiguously satisfies the market’s resolution criteria of a referendum concerning secession, whether binding or non-binding.”
One apparent Alberta resident wrote: “As much as Albertans love America and Americans, we’re not trying to become the 51st state. We want to chart our own course, do our own thing, not be a small voiceless part of a large confederation.”
They added: “We’d be a great friend and ally to America though.”
In December, a pollster said separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec are unlikely to succeed as long as Canadians feel a persistent sense of insecurity and anxiety about the future.
But if a clear majority of Alberta vote yes to separating, the federal government, and the rest of the provinces, would be required by law to deal with an independent Alberta in good faith, Brian Lilley reported in a previous column.
“A clear majority vote in Quebec on a clear question in favour of secession would confer democratic legitimacy on the secession initiative which all of the other participants in Confederation would have to recognize,” the Supreme Court stated.
Alienation of the western provinces — namely, Alberta and Saskatchewan — is what’s fueling support for separation, with people in both provinces “either at the tipping point or have passed it when it comes to wanting to go it alone,” Lilley wrote.
British Columbia’s pipeline stance isn’t exactly helping with national unity either. In fact, Lilley noted that if the need for a pipeline route to the Pacific goes through the U.S. instead of B.C., like Smith has suggested, it could be seen that Alberta’s prosperity would be better served working with the Americans than with other Canadian provinces.
polymarket.com
torontosun.com
The prediction market is taking bets on whether Alberta will schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027
Author of the article
enette WilfordPublished Mar 16, 2026 • 2 minute read
Premier Danielle Smith speaks during a press conference at McDougall Centre in Calgary on Jan. 2, 2026.
Premier Danielle Smith speaks during a press conference at McDougall Centre in Calgary on Jan. 2, 2026. Photo by Gavin Young /Postmedia
Alberta could become America’s 51st state if the province’s projected referendum goes according to plan.
The western province has not been quiet about it wanting its independence from Canada and this is the year it could happen, according to Polymarket.
The prediction market is taking bets on whether Alberta will schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027, with bettors suggesting a “55% chance” that the province could become the 51st state — with that figure only going higher on Polymarket’s live page.
While one person noted that last year it was only at 20%, someone on X called 55% “a long shot.”
However, another commented on the inevitable: “Alberta is so done with Canada.”
One commenter pointed out that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith already announced the referendum for Oct. 19, 2026, and “publicly committed to adding the independence question to that ballot if the petition succeeds.”
They added: “So once signatures are verified, the referendum is effectively already scheduled,” while also noting that the question — ‘Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?’ — “unambiguously satisfies the market’s resolution criteria of a referendum concerning secession, whether binding or non-binding.”
One apparent Alberta resident wrote: “As much as Albertans love America and Americans, we’re not trying to become the 51st state. We want to chart our own course, do our own thing, not be a small voiceless part of a large confederation.”
They added: “We’d be a great friend and ally to America though.”
In December, a pollster said separatist movements in Alberta and Quebec are unlikely to succeed as long as Canadians feel a persistent sense of insecurity and anxiety about the future.
But if a clear majority of Alberta vote yes to separating, the federal government, and the rest of the provinces, would be required by law to deal with an independent Alberta in good faith, Brian Lilley reported in a previous column.
“A clear majority vote in Quebec on a clear question in favour of secession would confer democratic legitimacy on the secession initiative which all of the other participants in Confederation would have to recognize,” the Supreme Court stated.
Alienation of the western provinces — namely, Alberta and Saskatchewan — is what’s fueling support for separation, with people in both provinces “either at the tipping point or have passed it when it comes to wanting to go it alone,” Lilley wrote.
British Columbia’s pipeline stance isn’t exactly helping with national unity either. In fact, Lilley noted that if the need for a pipeline route to the Pacific goes through the U.S. instead of B.C., like Smith has suggested, it could be seen that Alberta’s prosperity would be better served working with the Americans than with other Canadian provinces.
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
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Could Alberta become 51st state with referendum?
Alberta could become America’s 51st state if the province’s projected referendum goes according to plan. Find out more.