Tories widening lead over Liberals: poll
- Thread starter CBC News
- Start date
Yep! I saw the news on CBC Winnipeg News@6 /w Janet Stewart today.
They are treading in majority territory...the conservatives. Nationally 36% rating nation-wide.
Same rating they had when they came in power.
NDP and Green are tied! Wow, the Greens may have a shot at 1 seat next election! (serious, not sarcastic).
The NDP is struggling, they are not going to be the ones that pop the gun for an election.. they would have a big devastation.
Only 27% for Dion, its been going down ever since Dion took over!
AND, in Ontario, very key province, 40% support our leader Harper! And Libs. got 32% in that province.
In Ontario BOTH the Liberals and Conservatives are above the national average and the NDP and Green are taking a strange pattern...
5% error on this.
Wow, Harper is getting more popular more and more! Conservatives won't be pulling the election, but if the polls continue they may set up a budget that the Liberals decline and set off an election.
And I think this time the Canadian people may just award him a majority.
They are treading in majority territory...the conservatives. Nationally 36% rating nation-wide.
Same rating they had when they came in power.
NDP and Green are tied! Wow, the Greens may have a shot at 1 seat next election! (serious, not sarcastic).
The NDP is struggling, they are not going to be the ones that pop the gun for an election.. they would have a big devastation.
Only 27% for Dion, its been going down ever since Dion took over!
AND, in Ontario, very key province, 40% support our leader Harper! And Libs. got 32% in that province.
In Ontario BOTH the Liberals and Conservatives are above the national average and the NDP and Green are taking a strange pattern...
5% error on this.
Wow, Harper is getting more popular more and more! Conservatives won't be pulling the election, but if the polls continue they may set up a budget that the Liberals decline and set off an election.
And I think this time the Canadian people may just award him a majority.
And the next one will suggest otherwise. Polls are the byproduct of public mood, not actual election night results.
Yeah, put we all like polls.
Its gets us chatting!
You are right though, its the public feel at the current time. If next week the Conservatives introduced anti-abortion legislation it would plummet, but if they introduced justice reform it would surge (due to the public's fury over the current state of the justice system).
All depends on the current legislation.. and alot of Canadians are up and at it at the Liberals b/c of Dion's lack of leadership, and the Liberals shooting down an act that allows arrest without reason with incarsiration for up too 72 hours, in situations where terrorist suspects are involved and it is needed.
Its gets us chatting!
You are right though, its the public feel at the current time. If next week the Conservatives introduced anti-abortion legislation it would plummet, but if they introduced justice reform it would surge (due to the public's fury over the current state of the justice system).
All depends on the current legislation.. and alot of Canadians are up and at it at the Liberals b/c of Dion's lack of leadership, and the Liberals shooting down an act that allows arrest without reason with incarsiration for up too 72 hours, in situations where terrorist suspects are involved and it is needed.
And it makes you question Liberal judgment. What would possess the party to coronate a man without presence? Dion simply isn't leadership material. A great cabinet minister maybe but a frontman for a national party? Looks like they'll be having another leadership convention in the next two years. Yawn...
Help me with the math on this one. The Conservatives got into power with a slim minority, in fact the slimmest since Confederation... they have finally pulled themselves up to that same number as during Ad-Scam when they were voted in, despite the opposition having no leader... how are they treading in majority territory?
The threshhold for majority has always been around 40% but in this case it is certainly not for three reasons:
1. The imbalance of almost complete support in Alberta and Saskatchewan drains total support away from other regions necessary to win enough seats for a majority, because;
2. At least 2/3 of their support needs to come from Ontario and Quebec, where the 40% derived from (since they represent 60% of the seats), and it is simply not the case here. Ya missed this nugget from the story: "The poll recorded 35 per cent support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec... The Liberals followed the Bloc in Quebec with 23 per cent, with the Green party at 13 per cent, and the NDP with seven per cent." That fact alone snuffs out a Conservative majority.
3. There is an extra party factoring in on this.
The fact that the only right wing party still is supported by only 1/3 of people who are polled isn't exactly something to be joyous about, especially considering the inclinations of unknown/swing voters to vote Liberal. As well, I honestly cannot see 12% of people actually voting Green when they get to the ballot box; I expect the final number around 7%, as it's just too unlikely to see an 'unknown' party triple its national vote share within a year (they garnered 4.49% last time out) - either way their vote patterns are still too spread out to actually win more than (possibly) one seat.
It don't matter how it's sliced, or who leads it: it's another slim minority, bank on it. If BQ support holds steady until election time, it will be the (new) slimmest of Conservative minorities; if BQ support falls outside of Montreal, or NDP support continues to fall, it'll be a slightly-less tiny Liberal minority. Either way Canadians get SFA in the end.
A lot of people do, and have been for years. And every election, no matter where, stunned news commentators and political pundits get this shocked look, like they never saw it coming. Sad.
Even last time, all the talk was of this possible Conservative majority, even as late as the exit polls; how well did that pan out?
All reasonable thoughts.....but one could hope.
A Conservative majority would be good for the country.
If the trend continues..............
And the Greens will take votes from all EXCEPT the CPC.
Remember, because of the split conservative vote, Liberals ruled the country for 13 years.....Turnabout is fair play! I believe the Liberals only broke 40% in the last majority. The CPC is getting quite close, with 40% in Ontario.
Of course, the only poll that counts is on election day.
And where did you learn to lie to pollsters --The government teach you ??
Imagine these are the leaders of the country teaching us to lie, cheat and steal --really good role models
Imagine these are the leaders of the country teaching us to lie, cheat and steal --really good role models