The Tarriff Hype.

Twin_Moose

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Apr 17, 2017
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Mexico is the real target. They got the same "warning". Showing a softening with Canada mitigates the threat to Mexico. Smith is playing the game.

When US refineries are begging for heavy oil feedstock the alternative to Canada is Venezuela.

Despite becoming more energy independent due to rising oil production, US refineries are becoming increasingly more reliant on Canada's heavy crude, which is required to meet feedstock specifications.

Total US crude imports have declined to less than 7 million bbl/day in 2019, down from a high of 14 million bbl/day in 2005. At the same time, imports from Canada have risen from 500,000 bbl/day in the early 1980s, to almost 4 million bbl/day by the end of 2019.

About three-quarters of those imports are heavy, with an API density of less than 25°. The fraction of Canadian crude in US refinery feedstock has steadily risen from 7% in 1990, to about 22% by the end of 2019.

Although the Midwest (PADD 2) is by far Canada's largest customer, Midwest refineries already run on a diet of 70% Canadian crude, and that number is unlikely to get bigger. Much like the Midwest, the Rocky Mountains region (PADD 4) also sources 100% of their foreign oil imports from Canada, with very limited capacity for expansion.

The two largest opportunities for Western Canadian producers are the USGC (PADD 3) and California (part of PADD 5). The USGC is a much larger market, but is unfortunately located a great distance from central Alberta, resulting in relatively high shipping costs. Although California's refining capacity is much comparatively smaller, it is geographically cut-off from domestic supplies, and relies heavily on expensive seaborne imports. Shipping crude from Canada to West Coast refineries, which are well-suited to process heavy/sour crude, is much cheaper than shipping to the USGC, making it a highly desirable customer.
True I meant as Trump targets conduits to Chinese goods, to bring them to heel and restart the Chinese trade deal that was agreed to just before COVID hit
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Are you kidding? Steak is 1/2 to 2/3 cheaper in the US.
And cheese… pretty much all dairy products are similarly priced as a fraction of what you pay in Canada. Same with alcohol and cigarettes, etc… I’m in the trucking industry, so I’ve got an idea of what my drivers are bringing back on a continuous basis with their personal exemptions.
 

Dixie Cup

Senate Member
Sep 16, 2006
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I'm a big fan of common currency. Seems to me having different currencies only benefits people who play with money for a living. The euro is not without its problems, but it beats hell outta having to get a dozen different kinds of colored paper for a trip to the Continent.
Isn't that how Soros made his money using various countries' currencies? I do know he's damaged many economies.
 
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Taxslave2

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Announcing details of the plan, Canada's minister of finance and intergovernmental affairs said the federal government would devote C$1.3bn ($900m; £700m) to the plan.
Any self respecting bureaucrap could squander that without putting 1 extra guard on the boarder.
 
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Taxslave2

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How Trump could declare a national emergency to hit Canada with 25 per cent tariffs
Author of the article:Canadian Press
Canadian Press
Kelly Geraldine Malone
Published Jan 11, 2025 • 4 minute read

WASHINGTON — United States president-elect Donald Trump may declare a national emergency in order to turn his threat to slap Canada with 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs into a reality.


With less than two weeks to go until Trump returns to the White House, it’s still not clear how the Republican leader will enact his tariff agenda. Greta Peisch, the former general counsel for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, said the incoming president could use the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA).

“When you look at the link that the president-elect makes between tariff action and issues such as fentanyl and border security, he has not explained what authority he would use, but it would seem to be most closely linked to IEEPA,” Peisch said.

IEEPA is a national security statute that gives the U.S. president authority to control economic transactions after declaring an emergency.


While its predecessor, the Trading With The Enemy Act, was used during the Nixon administration to briefly impose a 10 per cent tariff on all imports into the U.S., no president has used IEEPA for tariffs.

“(It) would be a new tool in the tariff toolbox,” Peisch said.

Trump is aware of the power of the statute. He threatened to use it to impose five per cent tariffs on Mexico if it didn’t address issues around the border and illegal immigration during his first administration.

“That never came to pass because a deal was worked out and the tariffs were never imposed,” Peisch said.

It’s been reported in the U.S. that Trump and his team are looking at declaring an economic emergency to use the statute this time around.

It’s not the only tool he has. Trump’s team also may be considering a section of the Trade Act of 1974, which was used to impose tariffs on China during his first administration, or a section of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which put duties on Canadian steel and aluminum, Peisch said.


The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, negotiated during Trump’s first administration, will not shield America’s closest neighbours. The agreement allows member countries to take measures considered necessary for their own essential security, Peisch said.

Soon after winning the election, Trump threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico and Canada unless the two countries stop drugs and people from illegally crossing their borders with America. He has said the action would be one of his first executive orders on Jan. 20, when he assumes office.

In response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc travelled to Mar-a-Lago to discuss the duties last year. A few weeks later, LeBlanc announced a series of measures to beef up border security with a $1.3-billion package.


But Trump has not dialed down his threats.

“We don’t have tariffs on them yet but that will happen,” Trump said about Canada Thursday.

Instead, the president-elect has said repeatedly that Canada should become the 51st state. He escalated that rhetoric this week by suggesting that he would use “economic force” to make it happen.

While Trudeau has said there’s not a “snowball’s chance in hell” that Canada would join the U.S., Canadian officials are preparing for a very real tariff threat.

“We have to be ready,” Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly told reporters Friday morning on Parliament Hill, ahead of a meeting of ministers on the Canada-U. S. cabinet committee to discuss the retaliatory measures Ottawa would deploy if tariffs are applied.


Ottawa is looking at its own tariffs targeting American steel, ceramics, plastics and orange juice.

Federal and provincial leaders also made frequent appearances on American news shows to warn that tariffs on Canada will harm U.S. consumers and businesses.

Wolfgang Alschner, an associate professor in international economic law at the University of Ottawa, said the current situation goes beyond a mere trade threat — and Canada is not dealing with the same issues it did during the first Trump administration, when the Republican leader imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Alschner said the magnitude of the threatened tariffs and their connection to border security concerns qualify them as “economic coercion” — the use of abusive or excessive measures to affect trade and interfere with a foreign government’s exercise of its sovereign rights.


“We are seeing the U.S. using economic tools to achieve non-economic policy gains and that is the poster definition of economic coercion,” he said. “And that is something we really hadn’t seen in the Canada-U.S. relationship during Trump 1.”

Alschner said relying on targeted retaliatory tariffs won’t be enough, given the gravity of the situation. Canada also needs to offer the incoming Trump administration solutions on economic security, get rid of trade irritants and work on resetting the bilateral relationship, he said.

“It’s really imperative that this kind of game, because we are really playing with fire here, doesn’t get out of hand.”
Two can play that game. We can ban the export of all natural resources to the US under the guise of National Security. The Emergency Powers act should be used for something more important than removing bouncy castles.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Are they exiting stage left to the theme song for YMCA?
Absolutely.

To the cartels en Mehico, they deal in cash USD. If there is a switch to a digital Can/Usa digital dollar without Mehico coming to existence which requires proof of source of USD or CAD income/origin for exchange of cash to digital and If all cash needed to be converted within 30 days, imagine the shit storm.

Its coming bud. Its coming.
 

Tecumsehsbones

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Isn't that how Soros made his money using various countries' currencies? I do know he's damaged many economies.
I have no idea. Probably. Every large fortune in the world is based at least partly on playing games with colored paper.

Why do you ask? I don't know anything about Soros, except he's a rich guy who likes to give money to Democrats. I know that makes him a demon from the ninth circle of Hell to you.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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I have no idea. Probably. Every large fortune in the world is based at least partly on playing games with colored paper.

Why do you ask? I don't know anything about Soros, except he's a rich guy who likes to give money to Democrats. I know that makes him a demon from the ninth circle of Hell to you.
Isn’t he the one that’s always in the memes for that world domination club thing where he wants all the peons to eat bugs?
 
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