Believe it or not, a Republican could win again TheStar.com - USElection - Believe it or not, a Republican could win again
February 06, 2008
Thomas Walkom
Lost in the excitement over the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is a possibility that once seemed remote but that now does not. In the end, regardless of the hype surrounding their rivalry, neither might win the U.S. presidency. In the end, another Republican – probably John McCain – may well end up replacing George W. Bush.
At one level, this should be obvious. The U.S. primaries, including last night's Super Tuesday extravaganza, are designed to pick Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. The full-bore race for America's top job won't take off until late summer.
However, the sheer drama of the Clinton-Obama contest makes many of us forget that fact. Behind the fascination with the details of last night's primaries – such as how California's 370 Democratic delegates will eventually be apportioned – lies the assumption that one of these two will become president and thereby put paid to the disastrous Bush presidency.
Outsiders look at America and ask how voters could make any other reasonable choice. They see Republican Bush as having presided over a botched war and a stumbling economy. Many (including many Canadians) say America is now the gravest threat to world peace. What sane person could wish for more of that? And for a while it did seem that the Republicans had little hope in 2008. They were repudiated in the mid-term congressional elections. Their presidential contenders, or at least those considered likely to win nomination in a party still dominated by the religious right, seemed fatally flawed.
Conservatism itself seemed in retreat as the ideological factions within the Republican party began sniping at one another.
But then three things happened. First, Bush's so-called troop surge in Iraq has worked, if not permanently, at least enough to remove the war from the front burner of domestic politics.
Second, Republican voters in the early primary contests delivered a rebuke to the purists of their own party by voting in significant numbers for the candidate best positioned to attract Democrats and independents – McCain. He is not yet a shoo-in. But he continued to slowly and steadily amass delegates last night with wins from New York to Oklahoma. (Democrats are beginning, belatedly, to realize that McCain will be the one to beat. Hence the recent spate of blogging attacks on him for his temper, his policy flip-flops and the fact that his grandfather took part in America's late-19th century subjugation of the Philippines.)
Third, the sheer amount of attention paid to Clinton and Obama, as well as their sniping at one another, has reminded Americans why so many mistrust the Democrats. Clinton, in spite of years of edge softening, still comes across as the great schemer. As for Obama, there is a children's crusade element to his campaign that is reminiscent less of John Kennedy than of George McGovern, the Democratic senator who lost to Richard Nixon in 1972.
And finally there are the questions most are too polite to ask. When it comes to race, sex and religion, Americans are a remarkably conservative people. In Canada, Roman Catholics have routinely served as prime ministers since the 19th century. But Americans did not elect their first Roman Catholic president until 1960.
Come November, will U.S. voters be willing to elect either a woman or a black man? The Republican party, by bringing to the fore a candidate that can be presented as reasonable, is giving them an excuse to do neither.
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/300934