Split over Bexit....Chaos in UK.

White_Unifier

Senate Member
Feb 21, 2017
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The UK could come out of Brexit reasonably well with a proper plan, but unfortunately its only plan was to leave with no idea what to replace it with.

Hi Walter.

I predict that the present government will either sign something similar to the Norwegian model or cancel Brexit and call a new clearer referendum. even if it adopts the Norwegian model, this would probably lead to a second referendum anyway. either way though, the leave option will be more clearly worded to end all ambiguity on the matter.
 
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White_Unifier

Senate Member
Feb 21, 2017
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Boris quit and has run away to join the circus.

I assume he has some basic level of education. From what I've gathered, he's expressed the desire for the UK to have the power to negotiate its own trade deals. That essentially means the Canadian model. So why does he not just say so but be honest about the fact that that will deny the UK tariff-free access to the UK market and will still impose a need on the UK to negotiate trade deals with other countries too which will take much time.

While I'd be open to unilateral free trade as a way to accelerate trade deals (which would be essential to compensate for the loss of tariff-free access the EU market), the Canadian model that he seems to be proposing would be disastrous for the UK.

To put it simply, if the UK wants to truly break away from the EU while minimizing the long-term damage (the short-to-term is inevitable), then the only option I can see is unilateral free trade since the UK would need to compensate in a major way to compensate for the loss of tariff-free access to the EU market. Sorry, UK, but you can't have your cake and eat it too.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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I assume he has some basic level of education. From what I've gathered, he's expressed the desire for the UK to have the power to negotiate its own trade deals. That essentially means the Canadian model. So why does he not just say so but be honest about the fact that that will deny the UK tariff-free access to the UK market and will still impose a need on the UK to negotiate trade deals with other countries too which will take much time.

While I'd be open to unilateral free trade as a way to accelerate trade deals (which would be essential to compensate for the loss of tariff-free access the EU market), the Canadian model that he seems to be proposing would be disastrous for the UK.

To put it simply, if the UK wants to truly break away from the EU while minimizing the long-term damage (the short-to-term is inevitable), then the only option I can see is unilateral free trade since the UK would need to compensate in a major way to compensate for the loss of tariff-free access to the EU market. Sorry, UK, but you can't have your cake and eat it too.
One thing that hurts the UK (and the USA) in their trade relations are their relatively muscular currencies. High valued Sterling and Greenbacks favour purchasing but not selling. If you are big and self-sufficient like the United States is, it probably doesn't matter if you sell much overseas but the British are not in that situation. Their goods and services are too expensive to sell overseas when the sweetheart deals with the EU come to an end.

Trump is going there for "trade negotiations" with the Brits but they are in for a bit of a shock. The US is selling, not buying. The Brits need to sell, not buy but they compete against the US in their output. Trump has zero interest in reciprocity. The Brits will find no help, there.
 

Ocean Breeze

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Jun 5, 2005
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One thing that hurts the UK (and the USA) in their trade relations are their relatively muscular currencies. High valued Sterling and Greenbacks favour purchasing but not selling. If you are big and self-sufficient like the United States is, it probably doesn't matter if you sell much overseas but the British are not in that situation. Their goods and services are too expensive to sell overseas when the sweetheart deals with the EU come to an end.

Trump is going there for "trade negotiations" with the Brits but they are in for a bit of a shock. The US is selling, not buying. The Brits need to sell, not buy but they compete against the US in their output. Trump has zero interest in reciprocity. The Brits will find no help, there.
talk about timing too. Having to deal with Trump while they are in a bit of a crisis. He will be meeting the queen too. (bet she just can't wait ;-)
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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One thing that hurts the UK (and the USA) in their trade relations are their relatively muscular currencies. High valued Sterling and Greenbacks favour purchasing but not selling. If you are big and self-sufficient like the United States is, it probably doesn't matter if you sell much overseas but the British are not in that situation. Their goods and services are too expensive to sell overseas when the sweetheart deals with the EU come to an end.

Trump is going there for "trade negotiations" with the Brits but they are in for a bit of a shock. The US is selling, not buying. The Brits need to sell, not buy but they compete against the US in their output. Trump has zero interest in reciprocity. The Brits will find no help, there.

Let's not exaggerate. Even in a bad-case scenario like the UK leaving the EU with no deal, falling back to WTO rules, and leaving it at that, the UK could still survive, but it would soon become a second-tier economy as it loses the benefits of comparative advantage and economies of scale.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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He will be PM soon.

Coup d'etat?

Let's not exaggerate. Even in a bad-case scenario like the UK leaving the EU with no deal, falling back to WTO rules, and leaving it at that, the UK could still survive, but it would soon become a second-tier economy as it loses the benefits of comparative advantage and economies of scale.

They will have to let the value of Sterling free-fall.
 

White_Unifier

Senate Member
Feb 21, 2017
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Coup d'etat?



They will have to let the value of Sterling free-fall.

The market would take care of that. Now my question is why would any Briton with even a basic understanding of economics want to adopt the Canadian model (which works for Canada only because we don't depend as much on the EU as the UK does) or fall back to WTO rules (which the UK could survive but at a great price in both the short and long terms essentially eliminating the UK as an economic world power over time).

In all honesty, I can see only two reasonable ways out for the UK: stay in the EU or adopt unilateral free trade. Unilateral free trade would inevitably hurt in the short-to-medium term since it would require an adjustment period and it's debatable which of the two options would benefit the UK the most in the long term (both being more or less tied for their potential benefits to the UK). Any other option would hurt the UK in both the short and long term.

With that, if Brexiteers really want to make a hard break with the EU, it might be time for them to be brutally honest with the British people that to make a successful hard Brexit would mean unilaterally dropping all tariffs and subsidies, that it would inevitably hurt the UK economy at least in the short-to-medium term, and that economists are divided as to whether remaining in the EU or unilateral free trade would benefit the UK the most but that either way, even if unilateral free trade would benefit them more, that they'll have to go through much short-to-medium-term pain for the small long-term advantage.

If they are brutally honest with the British people on this, maybe, just maybe, the British people might choose short-to-medium-term pain for unilateral free trade as a potentially, debatably more beneficial long-term arrangement for the UK. But at least they'd now be making an informed decision.
 

Curious Cdn

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Feb 22, 2015
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The market would take care of that. Now my question is why would any Briton with even a basic understanding of economics want to adopt the Canadian model (which works for Canada only because we don't depend as much on the EU as the UK does) or fall back to WTO rules (which the UK could survive but at a great price in both the short and long terms essentially eliminating the UK as an economic world power over time).

In all honesty, I can see only two reasonable ways out for the UK: stay in the EU or adopt unilateral free trade. Unilateral free trade would inevitably hurt in the short-to-medium term since it would require an adjustment period and it's debatable which of the two options would benefit the UK the most in the long term (both being more or less tied for their potential benefits to the UK). Any other option would hurt the UK in both the short and long term.

With that, if Brexiteers really want to make a hard break with the EU, it might be time for them to be brutally honest with the British people that to make a successful hard Brexit would mean unilaterally dropping all tariffs and subsidies, that it would inevitably hurt the UK economy at least in the short-to-medium term, and that economists are divided as to whether remaining in the EU or unilateral free trade would benefit the UK the most but that either way, even if unilateral free trade would benefit them more, that they'll have to go through much short-to-medium-term pain for the small long-term advantage.

If they are brutally honest with the British people on this, maybe, just maybe, the British people might choose short-to-medium-term pain for unilateral free trade as a potentially, debatably more beneficial long-term arrangement for the UK. But at least they'd now be making an informed decision.

The British people are not buying that there will be any pain, at all. Brexit has been sold to them as a rejection of European opression and that they will suddenly prosper when they are free of the Brussels bureaucrats.

This is no more rational than Trump tearing up NAFTA because 80 year old steel mills in Pennsylvania were shuttered two decades ago.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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The British people are not buying that there will be any pain, at all. Brexit has been sold to them as a rejection of European opression and that they will suddenly prosper when they are free of the Brussels bureaucrats.

This is no more rational than Trump tearing up NAFTA because 80 year old steel mills in Pennsylvania were shuttered two decades ago.

Agreed. Even if we take Canada as an example. Could unilateral free trade benefit Canada in the long run? Sure it can. But (and this is a big but) Canadian farmers and others who presently enjoy protection through tariffs and subsidies would indeed suffer in the short-to-medium term. There is just no getting around it. Yes we would benefit more from comparative advantage and economies of scale. But some Canadians would inevitably need to go through some growing pains for the rest of us to get there.

To take another North American example. In a simple referendum to remain in or leave NAFTA, I would not dare vote to leave since I would have no clue what the government would intend to replace NAFTA with. In a referendum between NAFTA and unilateral free trade, I could vote for unilateral free trade for its long-term benefits, but I'm also under no illusion that it would probably hurt the Canadian economy in the short-to-medium term maybe for at least a generation even with the government needing to invest heavily in trades and professional education for the unemployed to help Canada through the difficult transition period. i would vote for it for the long term benefits, but I'd be under no illusion about its short-to-medium term effects.

I think for anything like this, it is important to be brutally honest with the people of both the pros and cons of the actions being proposed.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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Didn't the Brexiteers tell us that a leave vote would solve everything?

That was the main problem with Brexit.

Firstly, most alterantives to remaining in the EU would hurt more in both the short and long term than just remaining in the EU.

Secondly, though a legitimate argument exists for unilateral free trade, and though it could potentially bring about long-term benefits, it would inevitably bring about short-to-medium-term pain. The brexiteers' high priests should have been brutally honest with the voters about that to ensure that the voters would be making an informed choice on the matter.
 

taxslave

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Nov 25, 2008
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what a ridiculous waste of time and money

You would think there would be something worthwhile these people could be doing.

Like speeding up the process of leaving the EU before it is too late. If Germany beats U.K. Out the door guess who gets left holding the bag ?
Hint.. it won't be France.

California will leave the USA.

The US wouldn't be that lucky.