It's a good thing those pipeline projects didn't go through!
Canada's fossil fuel use to peak in 2019, National Energy Board now projects
The National Energy Board now projects fossil fuel use in Canada will peak in 2019, a major downward revision of similar estimates it has made annually for the past decade.
It's the first time in the 11-year history of the NEB's annual reports on the topic that a peak in fossil fuel demand has been included in the baseline projection.
Previous reports projected demand would increase for the next two or three decades, at least.
The NEB's projections from previous years are indicated by the lines in different colours. The line in black indicates the latest projection, which has Canadian fossil fuel use peaking in 2019 and then declining slowly after that. (National Energy Board)
The NEB now says things have changed on several fronts, and a peak in domestic demand is likely much sooner than previously expected.
"Improving energy efficiency, somewhat slower economic and population growth projections than in previous outlooks, and climate change policies introduced by various federal and provincial governments underlie this change in trajectory," the NEB said in a report released Thursday.
The estimate is based on what the NEB calls the "reference case" — a projection based on current economic outlooks, "a moderate view of energy prices" and a national carbon price of $50 per tonne from 2022 to 2040.
The report also includes two other scenarios that involve an even sharper decline in fossil fuel demand after 2019.
The "high carbon price" scenario, which assumes a carbon price that increases steadily starting in 2022, projects fossil fuel demand will be 7.5 per cent lower in 2040 than it is 2017.
Canada's fossil fuel use to peak in 2019, National Energy Board now projects - Calgary - CBC News
Canada's fossil fuel use to peak in 2019, National Energy Board now projects
The National Energy Board now projects fossil fuel use in Canada will peak in 2019, a major downward revision of similar estimates it has made annually for the past decade.
It's the first time in the 11-year history of the NEB's annual reports on the topic that a peak in fossil fuel demand has been included in the baseline projection.
Previous reports projected demand would increase for the next two or three decades, at least.
The NEB's projections from previous years are indicated by the lines in different colours. The line in black indicates the latest projection, which has Canadian fossil fuel use peaking in 2019 and then declining slowly after that. (National Energy Board)
The NEB now says things have changed on several fronts, and a peak in domestic demand is likely much sooner than previously expected.
"Improving energy efficiency, somewhat slower economic and population growth projections than in previous outlooks, and climate change policies introduced by various federal and provincial governments underlie this change in trajectory," the NEB said in a report released Thursday.
The estimate is based on what the NEB calls the "reference case" — a projection based on current economic outlooks, "a moderate view of energy prices" and a national carbon price of $50 per tonne from 2022 to 2040.
The report also includes two other scenarios that involve an even sharper decline in fossil fuel demand after 2019.
The "high carbon price" scenario, which assumes a carbon price that increases steadily starting in 2022, projects fossil fuel demand will be 7.5 per cent lower in 2040 than it is 2017.
Canada's fossil fuel use to peak in 2019, National Energy Board now projects - Calgary - CBC News
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