Polls

[DasFX]

Re: RE: Polls

They only polled 500 people. I'll wait for more data, thanks.

What do you want 30 million, oops that would be a election.

Badboy, can I assume that your understanding of statistics is poor at best? Otherwise you would understand why most polls are garbage and why ones with a small sample size are especially bad.

The larger the N value, the more statistical confidence one can have in the result. Obvious, there limitations for a simple poll, you can't survey a hundred thousand people, but you really can't let 500 people speak for 20 or so million voters.

Frankly, they don't provide enough information about the survey to give me any confidence. Who did they survey, when, where. What questions did they ask before that may have perhaps lead the respondent to vote a certain way.

If you take your average voter who is not enthusiastic for any party, and ask them whom they support immediately after talking about the Gomrey inquiry, whom do you think they aren't going to support?

Be careful what you believe!

 

[badboy]

Re: RE: Polls

They only polled 500 people. I'll wait for more data, thanks.

What do you want 30 million, oops that would be a election.

Badboy, can I assume that your understanding of statistics is poor at best? Otherwise you would understand why most polls are garbage and why ones with a small sample size are especially bad.

The larger the N value, the more statistical confidence one can have in the result. Obvious, there limitations for a simple poll, you can't survey a hundred thousand people, but you really can't let 500 people speak for 20 or so million voters.

Frankly, they don't provide enough information about the survey to give me any confidence. Who did they survey, when, where. What questions did they ask before that may have perhaps lead the respondent to vote a certain way.

If you take your average voter who is not enthusiastic for any party, and ask them whom they support immediately after talking about the Gomrey inquiry, whom do you think they aren't going to support?

Be careful what you believe!

and you point ?

Just put a couple of people at each station and remind people just before they vote WTF this Gov't did to us. I bet I can predict the outcome.

Canadians have a short memory. too short

 

[Reverend Blair]

And yet with all of that, polls can be an accurate way to determine trends. That's why I like them. Single polls are basically not worth the paper they written on. Several polls from several pollsters for several different clients do show what people are thinking though.

 

[no1important]

The Liberals have recovered from a scandal-provoked plummet in the polls only weeks ago and are back up to 34.7 per cent support nationally, the Star/La Presse EKOS poll shows, while the Conservatives are at 28.3 per cent and the New Democrats at 18.4 per cent. The Bloc Québécois is at 12.6 per cent and the Green party 5.7 per cent.

In Ontario, which has 106 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals lead the Tories by 15 percentage points — 45 per cent to 30 per cent.


Click Here For rest of Article.



Ekos
17/05/2005
Liberal 35
Cons 28
NDP 18
Bloc 13
Green 6

 

[Reverend Blair]

Just put a couple of people at each station and remind people just before they vote WTF this Gov't did to us. I bet I can predict the outcome.

Campaigning at polling stations is illegal.

 

[badboy]

Just put a couple of people at each station and remind people just before they vote WTF this Gov't did to us. I bet I can predict the outcome.

Campaigning at polling stations is illegal.

across the road ain't

 

[Reverend Blair]

After Stronach's announcement, EKOS pollsters found that 58 per cent of Canadians predicted the Liberals would win a future election — a full 11 percentage points higher than the 47 per cent who forecast a Liberal win on the four preceding days of polling.

Only 20 per cent of respondents thought the Conservatives would win the election after hearing of the Stronach defection, compared to 31 per cent who thought that was possible in polling from May 13-16.

Like I said, I'll wait for more data.

 

[no1important]

Here This article may interest you Rev.

 

[Jay]

Re: RE: Polls

Here This article may interest you Rev.

"The Liberals have recovered from a scandal-provoked plummet in the polls only weeks ago and are back up to 34.7 per cent support nationally,..."

It's no wonder people drink.

 

[Reverend Blair]

That's the article I was quoting from, No1.

I said at the time that Sponsorship didn't have the legs to win the Cons an election, Jay. Canadian politics has been full of scandal since Sir John was drinking vodka in the House. He preferred scotch, but vodka looks like water...at least that's the story.

 

[Jo Canadian]

 

[no1important]

Leger Marketing
22/05/2005
Liberal 38
Cons 27
NDP 17
Bloc
Green

Conservatives are definitely slipping. So does Harper still think he will win anything if he brings down government. I am surprised he still wants too.

Harper ain't a very bright boy. If he was, him and his conservative buddies could of capitalized more on Gomery and been ahead in the polls. But never did except for a week or so.

If conservatives want to win next election Harper must go. I guess Belinda was right to jump ship.

 

[Derry McKinney]

The conservatives are done, No 1. Until they make a public decision to purge themselves of the Harperites, there is nothing there that Canadians want. If it wasn't for blind regional support they'd be ten points lower than they are.

 

[no1important]

Click here for link and story

The link just goes to national news and not right to the story for some reason. So here is whole article:

Liberals lead slumping Tories but 'whipsawed' voters are volatile: poll
at 12:30 on May 28, 2005, EST.

OTTAWA (CP) - The Conservatives continue to slump in voter support despite daily allegations of Liberal sponsorship misdeeds, a new poll suggests.

The phone survey by Decima Research Inc. puts the Liberals ahead with 36 per cent of decided voters compared to 27 per cent for the Conservatives and 21 per cent for the NDP.

In the crucial battleground of Ontario where one-third of Commons seats are centred, the Liberals lead by 16 percentage points.

The separatist Bloc Quebecois has a hammerlock on Quebec with 53 per cent of support, versus 21 per cent for the Liberals, 12 per cent for the Tories and nine per cent for the NDP.

Prime Minister Paul Martin has promised a federal election call within 30 days of a report by Justice John Gomery on the sponsorship scandal. His conclusions are expected in December but could be delayed.

And the minority Liberals may be brought down sooner if the Conservatives force and win a non-confidence vote.

Decima polled just over 1,000 adults across Canada from May 19 to 22.

Polling began two days after Belinda Stronach's stunning defection to the Liberals from the Conservatives. Losing the urban Ontario social moderate was a major blow to the Tories and leader Stephen Harper.

But the survey suggests voter intentions are anything but stable.

Decima CEO Bruce Anderson calls it a "whipsawing effect."

Almost half of those polled, 48 per cent, said they had changed their mind in recent months about which party to support. One in four said they are struggling to decide and have switched loose allegiances repeatedly.

Of those respondents - most are low-income women aged between 25 and 44 - more than one-third now say they'd support the Liberals, 27 per cent would vote NDP and 24 per cent Tory.

Such volatility is normally reserved for election campaigns, Anderson says.

But many voters have been paying close attention to the Gomery inquiry and the political upheaval on Parliament Hill as parties jockey for power.

The resulting uncertainty helps explain sharp swings from one poll to the next, Anderson says.

"These whipsawed voters are different from traditionally defined undecided voters, who often are those with a fairly passive interest in politics.

"Instead, the whipsawed voters are responding actively to events of the day, most notably the Gomery commission, the debate over election timing and the functioning of the House of Commons."

The good news for Conservatives is those voters may well change their minds again.

The Decima survey is considered accurate within 3.1percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

[Derry McKinney]

I doubt they'll switch to the Conservatives. Harper and his buddies have shown themselves to be scary on too many issues and, with their latest antics, have managed to look both power hungry and incompetent.

 

[Derry McKinney]

NDP Leader Jack Layton fared best in terms of personal trust. Twenty-seven per cent said he was the political leader most likely to return your wallet if you lost it.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper came second, followed by Prime Minister Paul Martin and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe. But 14 per cent thought none of the leaders would return it.

Of all the political parties, the NDP was considered the most trustworthy. Twenty-three per cent said the party was the most suited to run a government with honesty and integrity, up four points from the same time last year.

The Conservatives came in at 22 per cent – the same level as last year.

The Liberal party, possibly feeling the effects from the sponsorship scandal, was chosen by 17 per cent, a five per cent drop from the same time last year.

CBC poll

 

[no1important]

Well I hope it translates into not just more votes for the NDP but more seats. I have a feeling the NDP could (and they should) win 30 seats next election.

 

[Jo Canadian]

Re: RE: Polls

Well I hope it translates into not just more votes for the NDP but more seats. I have a feeling the NDP could (and they should) win 30 seats next election.

It would be interesting to see how they'd be behind the helm for a term. I don't recall having a NDP prime minister (I guess I'm a Young'un)

I DO know the track records of our current rulers, and neither are very much to be proud of. Perhaps if things do happen in threes we'll have to try the NDP at some time to see if they follow in their predecessors footsteps...hopefully knot. :lol:

 

[Vanni Fucci]

No Jo...there's never been an NDP PM...and if the Cons had their way, there never would be...

*psst* They're probably fiscally irresponsible... :wink:

 

[Jo Canadian]

No Jo...there's never been an NDP PM...and if the Cons had their way, there never would be...

*psst* They're probably fiscally irresponsible... :wink:

Ah, I guess I was sleeping through my Canadian history courses. I guess it's been nothing but PC's and Libs from day one. I wonder when people will get fed up with our apparently cycladic political situation?