What makes the chattering classes so confident in their prediction?
They claim Charest is a political unifier and bridge-builder, while Poilievre is a political disruptor and bridge destroyer. They depict Charest as a member of polite society, and Poilievre as a member of the angry societal underbelly. They’re comfortable with what they perceive as Charest’s moderate conservative ideology, and uncomfortable with what they perceive as Poilievre’s hard right ideology. They believe Charest’s leadership could help the Conservatives return to power, whereas Poilievre’s leadership could slide the party into permanent political oblivion.
These are fascinating and creative political narratives. Not a single one has even a microscopic kernel of truth to it, however. Charest, rather than Poilievre, is actually the biggest threat to Conservative unity and creating a major split within the Conservative party. Why? He represents a milquetoast version of conservatism of the past that most Conservatives don’t ever want to experience again.
There’s a popular narrative that Canada’s chattering classes enjoy spouting to anyone within earshot. If Pierre Poilievre becomes the next Conservative leader instead of Jean Charest, they say, he’ll create a massive split in Canada’s conservative movement and guarantee a fourth consecutive...
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Hence, Charest is a safe, boring choice for the chattering classes to go up against Trudeau and likely lose. Poilievre drives them nuts, but his uncanny ability to win over Conservatives and non-Conservatives makes him unpredictable and a real threat to bring down the Liberals. They’re genuinely worried, even if they don’t say so publicly — and it shows far more than they’re letting on.
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