Reverend Blair said:
So were we. What the hell is wrong with you?
You can't possibly believe this. Before there was talk of the invasion, oil was hovering under $30, now it has doubled in price over the past 3 or 4 years.
How much would have have risen if Iraqi oil weren't available? The only possib;e answer is "MORE".
That is completely inaccurate. Speculators hold oil and gold as a hedge against the US dollar. Higher oil prices mean a lower US dollar.
Iraq had switched to the Euro and was encouraging other oil-producing nations to do the same. They were pushing for OPEC to make the official changeover, giving a lot of impetus to Chavez's push, which would have made the Euro the defacto currency of the planet. Chavez had a lot of pull within OPEC, since he pretty much single handedly resurrected it. Iraq, because of it's oil resources, represented the power to drive Opec to the Euro.
The US knew it couldn't maintain the sanctions for much longer...the entire world was complaining about them because they weren't working.
Don't piss around, crit...some of us are old enough that we taught our dogs that "Boutros Boutros Ghali" meant milkbone. Those dogs have a far better grasp of the situation than you are exhibiting.
Forget the dogs, the pigeons are singing. There's a reason why us landfill-dwelling, pig-humpers are so successful at money-sucking. We look for the pigeons to fleece.
Reverend Blair said:
Oil is cheaper than it would have been if Iraq hadn't been invaded.
Iraq was producing about 1.6 MM bbl/d before the invasion. Officially, Iraq now produces about 1.4 MM. Even if you believe that figure, that extra 200,000 barrells lost does not double the price of oil. But the production figures are phony because all, or almost all, OPEC countries bust their quota. In fact, Iraq is pumping closer to 1.6-2 MM bbl/d. And the price wasn't going to go up if the US hadn't invaded because there's no way Hussein would have stopped producing. There was supposed to be an embargo on Iraqi oil, remember? What a good job it did of keeping oil off the market. The lifeblood of Hussein's regime was oil revenues.
Venezuela produces about 2-3 MM, depending on who you want to believe. OPEC produces about 30 MM while the world produces about 83 MM. Between the two countries, the two produced no more than 15% of all OPEC production. Adjusting for the technical capacity available since Chavez has driven so many away from PDVSA, Venezuela has been producing flat-out. Its production, like Iraq's over the last 5-10 years, has been falling, not rising. To say that Chavez single-handedly revised OPEC is not credible.
Of course Iraq was pushing for an official change-over to the Euro - why would you want to hold the currency of your enemy? - but the original idea came from Saudi Arabia when the dollar price of crude began to skyrocket but the Euro price did not. Since then, the Euro price of oil has risen as well, so that idea has gone away.
The Euro as a defacto global currency? Dollars at central banks account for 65% of global reserves, yet the US economy accounts for 40% of global production. There's a reason why - the US is the deepest, most liquid, most dynamic modern economy in the world. The European economies are sclerotic because of all the policies you Lefties hold so dear. There's no way the world will replace the dollar with the Euro. And the defeat of the EU constitution by the French and Dutch only deepens the concern about the Euro. Now I think investors certainly should be diversifying away from dollars into other currencies - particularly countries that produce basic materials such as Canada and Australia - as well as gold, but those reasons have nothing to do with politics.
Reverend Blair said:
Oil is cheaper than it would have been if Iraq hadn't been invaded. It also serves to prop up the failing US dollar.
This is just flat out wrong. A high price of oil is bad for the dollar, not good because more dollars are flowing out of the country to pay for a barrell of oil.