Francis, I think it was easy for the Democratic base to switch from Hillary to Obama when it looked like he may be electable. Obama is more liberal, more to the left of Hillary.
On the Republican side however, Joan of Arc is so far to the right that it is difficult to conceive of anybody to the right of her who could still be considered electable. So it is highly unlikely that the base will switch away from her en masse. What is more likely is that there may be vote splitting by the Republican base among several far right candidates.
How could it have been easy for Democrats to switch..
Obama was painted as a radical with a Minister that was not helping and past acquaintances that were in trouble.. He was virtually unknown outside Illinois and only had the gift of being able to sell himself in discussion as his best asset..
Hillary Clinton had a full year campaigning start with a full kitty to go..
The difference was Obama had started to work the membership to those who would be crucial in his campaign and knew that networking and the Internet would be key to winning. While Hillary spent a lot of the upfront money with Bill, she was so confident, that she thought the race had ended when in fact it was barely started..
Palin is trying to make herself middle of the road and softer. I watched her interview the other night and she is trying to appeal to more centre of the road people.. "The common guys" who works for a living but also has everyday issues and is not as tough as she was made out to be by the McCain team. These tell all interviews will not make her friends and will surely get her enemies.
Personally I see Palin as damaged goods that can re-coop only with a really strong team. She hasn't shown that strong team yet so time will tell.