Odds over the long term favour gambling on 4th and short as long as you are not pinned in your end. Missing 3 times is a testament to the Rams D. And you are right, had they gotten one of those 4th and shorts converted, the minimum 4 more downs would have chewed off enough clock that the Rams would not have had time to mount the final drive.The game was decided by Cincinnati going for 4th and short and missing every time . IMHO .