Nova Scotia may turn Orange

[Finder]

I have my fingers crossed for the NDP. We all know how FPTP can mess up the populer vote. It's going to be very close they say, and with the Liberal party expected to get even worse results this time around, who knows. I'm hoping just for a strong NDP showing really. I think they already have that in the bag. Taking Nova Scotia from the Conservatives who are still progressive enough might be a little hard, but could happen. The Liberals are fighting to stay alive, if they do that they will win in their own way.

 

[Jersay]

Wrapping themselves in Canadian flags and such and stuff like that. What kind of bull is that.

The only PM I have ever heard wrapping himself in a flag was good old Johnny McDonald, a CONSERVATIVE.

 

[athabaska]

Of course no NDP PM has wrapped himself up in the flag..there hasn't been one. the party is still a distant 4th place party in the House of Commons after 18 federal elections. A party is still a non-player in large parts of Canada and among large segments of the population.

 

[Jersay]

Oh really. When the Cons only have 3 million more votes in the last election and the NDP had 2.5 million voters I don't think it is the party it is the system we are in, they could of clearly had 60 to 70 seats.

 

[nelk]

Just updating this thread:
Conservatives won >>>>>another Minority government
New Democrats came close>>>>> improved rural presence
Liberals soundly defeated>>>>>Provincial Partyleader not elected at all
Greens starting to enter picture>>>>approx 2 % of popular vote[/b]

 

[Finder]

Well again FPTP kills another Victom. The Nova Scotian Liberal party was soundly not defeated! but recieved 24% of the vote!!!! But only gained 9 seats! while the NDP gained 35% of the vote yet got 20 seats, the conservatives who won 40% of the vote recieved 23 seats.

In actuality the only party which got the amount of seats they should have were the Torys, and may have lost a seat because of FPTP. The Liberals should have gotten 3-4 more seats with there support and the NDP benifited greatly from the FPTP in which they should have only revieced no more then 19-18 seats.

Also in a mixed system of MMP the seat results would have most likely had given the Torys more power in parliment and would have represented there win a little better in this case. It would have degressed the seat power of the NDP slightly and would have given the Liberals at least one or two extra seats just of the PR part of MMP.

Though I support the NDP in almost every province, I think it would be the test of the Provincial NDP top support electoral reform in there province to which they are the party which benifits from the current FPTP system the most and in which FPTP may be the only way they could gain power in that province. I really hope they put the path to power behind electoral reform.

All and all because of how Nova Scotian vote the results are not as bad as the federal results from elections.

 

[BitWhys]

The reason why I asked specifically about the Bush tax cuts was because its an example of attributing false causality (or at least the last tax cuts). The conservatives in America argue that the economy began to turn the quarter the final tax cuts were implemented, ergo the economy turned because of the tax cuts. (I've seen this graphically depicted several times and I will post it if I find it again.) This is highly unlikely since there is a lag anytime a new fiscal policy is implemented. Thus its certainly false for the Republicans to claim the last tax cuts ended the recession.

Recessions have a natural bottoming point, just like expansions have a natural topping point. What happens is that when the recession has both lowered costs and reduced inventory to a certain point, the investment cycle will begin again because the lower costs and reduced inventory will raise prospective returns. This investment will increase jobs, which will spur demand. (However, it is only clear that the bottom of the recession has occurred ex-post. And the amplitudes of this cycle have been lessening over the past few decades for several reasons, but due at least in part to better understanding of fiscal and monetary policy.)

This is important because one should not to mix up cause and effect. And it is also why its incorrect to plug and play a few numbers by adding and subtracting in an excel spreadsheet and draw any big conclusions, as anyone who has taken econometrics would testify.

To demonstate, take an extreme example. Let's say the NDP government increased the deficit by 3% to to buy a rocket from the United States so they could put it at Queen's Park so everyone could admire it. Would one then come to the conclusion that the economy would have been 3% less if they hadn't purchased that rocket? No.

I lived in Ontario during the beginning then again at the end of Rae's term, and what I recall at the beginning of his term was that he was increasing spending on items that wouldn't much alleviate the economic problems while jacking up the deficit. I believe he increaed civil servants salaries quite a bit, only then to rescind part of those raises through his "Rae Days." Now, there's nothing necessarily wrong increasing pay for government employees, but its not the best way to stimulate the economy when deficit financing. (Similarly, a poor way to stimulate the economy in a recession is to cut the estate tax.) That's what I meant earlier about respecting Rae later in his term since he acknowledged his mistake, reversed course and swam against the tide of his party for the good of the province.

Anyways, this is a far cry from Nova Scotia.

By "turning orange", I guess that means Nova Scotians will be cheering for Holland at the World Cup, eh?

Bob Rae bought a rocket? 8O

 

[Finder]

I may not be a big Rae fan but all the provinces of Canada were in recession and Bob Rae took power around the time it hit. If it were a Conservative, Liberal or a Communist instead of the NDP there would have been no difference. Like Many Ontarioians we have mixed opionions about the Ontario NDP and Bob Rae, both the Left and the Right do not like him very much because of the social contracts the Rae days and so on.

I think Rae's biggest fault is he didn't stick with one economic goal long enough for it to work and flip flopped from Socialist to Neo-Con idea's on the dim. As I have said before near the end of his time in office he empressed NEO-Con idea's and even a softer version of theTorys "Common sence revolution". Two things killed the NDP im Ontario, that was the recession which had little to do with the NDP and the lack of Leadership from Bob Rae during the crisis.

Economically I may not be fare from the new labour views of Bob Rae on the lines of the British labour social democratic movement which has gained more conservative economic idea's then the NDP in Canada, but as a leader I am against his bid for the leadership of the Liberal party (unless this is away to kill the Liberal party) because of the off chance the liberals masy get into power.

 

[BitWhys]

The funny part is that Rae's reasoning for his economic policies may have been all over the map but his instincts were spot on. He spent while the economy was in decline and pulled up around the same time the recession did. He couldn't have timed it better. Probably a total fluke, but like the sharks will tell you its better to be lucky than good.

 

[Finder]

Yeah, but my main problem with Rae was him as a leader. He has away of generating dislike from both the left and the right. I do not believe he would be able to lead the liberals without a lot of in fighting (worse then under the last two).

 

[BitWhys]

You're probably right. I never had to vote for an Ontario premier so I never paid much attention to the politics. My interest in his antics only extend as far as they provide fodder for the deficit spending debate.

 

[Jersay]

Just updating this thread:
Conservatives won >>>>>another Minority government
New Democrats came close>>>>> improved rural presence
Liberals soundly defeated>>>>>Provincial Partyleader not elected at all
Greens starting to enter picture>>>>approx 2 % of popular vote[/b]

Thanks for the update.

 

[Finder]

It's amazing how the Greens havn't caught on that much in Nova Scotia. Even with someone riding in each riding they still only recieved 2% of the vote which is really bad. Even in a direct PR system they move likely wouldn't get a seat with such a low vote.