The idea of Moral Progress in Western Civilization is a Judeo-Christian concept which assumes the perfectibility of humanity as it seeks to follow the righteous path laid out by the prophets and Jesus Christ.
Moral Progress in the Dharmic religions exists through detachment from the material world over the course of innumerable births and rebirths.
Islam believes in following the Word of Allah and his Prophet, but is more determinist than Christianity.
The Secular West believes in Social Progress and again...until recently...believed in the social perfection of the human community.
Taoism doesn't believe in a human trajectory except for each individual to live a simple life at peace with himself/herself. Inner harmony is the objective.
Imo, there is no trajectory, moral, social or otherwise. For a trajectory to exist it must be consistent with the principles of time and history.
The reason for someone to study history is to gain insight. With sufficient study one can stroll through time and escape the limitations of time, space and personal experience.
In most of Western civilization history has been viewed as linear in dimension. In Confucian cultures history is generally seen as cyclical.
In my opinion history is neither linear nor cyclical. It is random. The limitations of human nature and the circumscribed expanse of human behavior make the course of events seem cyclical.
Conceptualize history as a pinball machine. Once the lever is pulled the ball takes on a life of its own. However, if one is skilled it is possible to use the opportunities presented by the movement of the pinball to score. When one is prepared and the opportunities present themselves it is possible for a society to advance. But there must be an alignment between preparation and opportunity. In the absence of either there is no advancement.
A society or civilization is like a complex organism with many different systems that must work together for the organism to live and prosper. Societies and civilizations don't fall or collapse because a single system fails. They fall when enough systems fail that the society or civilization can no longer breath, circulate, digest, and live.
That is what happened to Late Period Egypt prior to the Macedonian Conquest. That is what happened to the Roman Empire in the West.
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...k-civilization.
And that is what happened to Qing Dynasty China. It is all a question of the alignment of preparation and opportunity to create dynamic equilibrium.
No polity or society in all or recorded history has survived a prolonged and protracted period of financial instability. None. Not one. The story is always the same whether it be Bourbon Dynasty France in 1789, Qing Dynasty China in 1911, or the Soviet Union in 1989.
America won't survive financial collapse either. America is not exempt from the forces and processes of history. America is not exempt from economic collapse. All that is required for economic collapse is for enough people to lose faith in America. The Emperor Marcus Aurelius said something in his
Meditations to the effect that that which is old shall be new again. He didn't mean that in a good way.