Liberals have nine percentage point lead over Conservatives: Poll
Mark Carney has a 63 per cent approval rating compared to 39 per cent for Pierre Poilievre
Author of the article:Jane Stevenson
Published Feb 16, 2026 • Last updated 1 day ago • 1 minute read
An elector casts a ballot in the 2025 federal election.
An elector casts a ballot in the 2025 federal election. Photo by HANDOUT /Elections Canada
A new national survey reveals if a federal election were held today, the Liberal Party would hold a substantial nine-point lead over the Conservatives.
The poll, done by Liaison Strategies, found among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals hold 43% support, while the Conservatives stand at 34%.
“It looks like we are settling into a new normal with the Liberals consistently posting strong leads over the Conservatives. So far, we don’t see very much movement,” David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said in a statement.
“Regionally, the Liberals show strong support in Atlantic Canada (59%) and Ontario (47%), while the Conservatives maintain their stronghold in Alberta with 53%.
“Demographically, the Liberals see their highest levels of support among voters aged 50-64 (51%), whereas the Conservatives are most competitive in the 18-34 and 35-49 age brackets, where they are tied or close to the Liberals.”
The New Democratic Party (NDP) follows with 10%, while the Bloc Quebecois holds 6% nationally and the Green Party and the People’s Party (PPC) are tied at 2% each.
Carney scores high while Poilievre doesn’t
The Weekly Federal Tracker shows high approval ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre continues to face high unfavourable numbers.
“Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy strong public support, with a national approval rating of 63%,” said Valentin.
“Only 32% of Canadians disapprove of his performance, while 5% remain unsure. Carney’s approval is highest in Ontario (70%) and among those aged 65 and older (68%).
“In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre faces a net unfavourable rating. Currently, 39% of Canadians view him favourably, while 52% hold an unfavourable view. His highest favourability is found in Alberta (55%) and among voters aged 18–34 (47%).”
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from Feb. 2-14, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
jstevenson@postmedia.com
A new survey says if a federal election were held today the Liberals would have a 9 point lead over the Conservatives. Read more.
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