Major change in UK Met Office global warming forecast

[Locutus]

Well...this is awkward.


via sda:

A forecast the Met Office hoped you wouldn't see.

"...on Christmas Eve the Met Office sneaked on to its website a revised version of the graph it had posted a year earlier showing its prediction of global temperatures for the next five years. Not until January 5 did sharp-eyed climate bloggers notice how different this was from the graph it replaced."


And from Tallbloke:

h/t to eagle eye Richard Smith, from Suggestions.

I’ve edited the images to remove the distracting red overlay on the originals.

Current Met Office image on this page

Decadal forecast - Met Office

Old here until it gets removed www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/l/0/fcst_global_t1.png
And referred to Apr 27, 2012 at 5:06 PM at Bishop-Hill here
A more rational forecast by the Met Office is very welcome.
[update] Bob Tisdale has had time to be more comprehensive on the changes and shows the deleted red overlays too. Link to his article here. (opens in new page) [/update]




Major change in UK Met Office global warming forecast « Tallbloke's Talkshop


Solar Cycle24.com Message and Discussion Board - Global warming temperature predictions



​

 

[taxslave]

One of the problems with computer modeling. Garbage i-garbage out. Sooner or later reality catches up to them.

 

[Tonington]

One of the problems with computer modeling. Garbage i-garbage out. Sooner or later reality catches up to them.

Hmm, if you check the source linked to at Loc's link you can see the current Hadley image, and your assertion of garbage in garbage out doesn't appear to hold at all. See for yourself:

The real garbage is wherever Locutus found this stuff. Someone purposefully removed the red confidence shading and the previous forecasts which appear as the white line in the red shaded area. In fact the previous forecasts have been very good. The white line and black observed temperature lines agree very well indeed. Considering that the noise or fluctuations are random and by definition cannot be predicted, that is in fact a damn fine fit.

Hardly garbage in garbage out.

But if someone explained that to you instead of ripping some graphs and removing the important context, well that wouldn't be very convenient for the garbage point they're trying to make.

 

[Locutus]

Hmm, if you check the source linked to at Loc's link you can see the current Hadley image, and your assertion of garbage in garbage out doesn't appear to hold at all. See for yourself:

The real garbage is wherever Locutus found this stuff. Someone purposefully removed the red confidence shading and the previous forecasts which appear as the white line in the red shaded area. In fact the previous forecasts have been very good. The white line and black observed temperature lines agree very well indeed. Considering that the noise or fluctuations are random and by definition cannot be predicted, that is in fact a damn fine fit.

Hardly garbage in garbage out.

But if someone explained that to you instead of ripping some graphs and removing the important context, well that wouldn't be very convenient for the garbage point they're trying to make.

Old here until it gets removed www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/l/0/fcst_global_t1.png

 

[darkbeaver]

It's getting warmer I tell you. You will pay the tax we will fix the heating problem. More scientist recommend Carbon Taxation than the other leading climate ripoffs.

 

[Locutus]

Don't sweat it man. :lol:

 

[Tonington]

And if the perspiration gets to be too much, remove the tinfoil hat! :lol:

 

[darkbeaver]

It's aluneum, three layers, not as good as real tin of course that's why the government made the good stuff hard to get in 57. Alco is a little thicker than most. Ask for it at the supermarket.