Latest polling - Mainstreet: CPC at 38 percent

The_Foxer

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Aug 9, 2022
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xc20zf1dbfz91.jpg

so - the interestnig thing about the CPC numbers is that their support is already pretty saturated in most of the west, and pretty low in the east if they're around 35 percent. In otherwords, EVERYBODY in alberta votes for them at that rate but nobody in ontario.

So every time the points go up for the CPC, they're going up in areas that the CPC badly needs more support in.

35 is a loss for the cpc (miority gov't tho). 38 is probably a win. And the Libs have once again lost ground despite their fall economic updates and other 'good news' events they hoped would prop them up.

Most of the rest of the movement is within the margin so it's not all that interesting, except the bloc. The bloc has fallen as well. Which is VERY interesting.
 

Ron in Regina

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View attachment 16394

so - the interestnig thing about the CPC numbers is that their support is already pretty saturated in most of the west, and pretty low in the east if they're around 35 percent. In otherwords, EVERYBODY in alberta votes for them at that rate but nobody in ontario.

So every time the points go up for the CPC, they're going up in areas that the CPC badly needs more support in.

35 is a loss for the cpc (miority gov't tho). 38 is probably a win. And the Libs have once again lost ground despite their fall economic updates and other 'good news' events they hoped would prop them up.

Most of the rest of the movement is within the margin so it's not all that interesting, except the bloc. The bloc has fallen as well. Which is VERY interesting.
Weirdly, depending on how it’s spread out, CPC with 38% & Liberals with 32-33% could still be a Liberal Minority in a federal election….seriously. Liberals could end up with 30+ more seats with the above scenario but guaranteeing the CPC official opposition status, and the NDP as obsolete by 2025 but still more MP’s than the Green Party.

If Eastern BC & AB & SK and Western ON are extremely saturated towards CPC…and the other CPC votes are spread out…it could happen. Check out the popular vote in the last couple federal elections, then take that to an….outlier…
 
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The_Foxer

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Weirdly, depending on how it’s spread out, CPC with 38% & Liberals with 32-33% could still be a Liberal Minority in a federal election….seriously. Liberals could end up with 30+ more seats with the above scenario but guaranteeing the CPC official opposition status, and the NDP as obsolete by 2025 but still more MP’s than the Green Party.

If Eastern BC & AB & SK and Western ON are extremely saturated towards CPC…and the other CPC votes are spread out…it could happen. Check out the popular vote in the last couple federal elections, then take that to an….outlier…
Well like i said those areas are ALREADY saturated. So when we see growth we're not seeing it in those areas, they're already about as big as they can get. So once you hit 36 or so the growth is happening in other areas such as ontario and quebec.

38 percent would be unlikelyl to produce a liberal minority. it's' TECHNICALLY possible but it would be unlikely. Remember - harper pulled off a majority with just under 38 percent.

There are a LOT of ridings where the cpc lost by only a small amount. A thousand or even a few hundred votes. A small increase in support can very quickly translated into winning those seats by a few hundred or a thousand. And suddenly you've got a majority.

38 percent with the libs at 30 is a winning number for the CPC.
 

Taxslave2

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Aug 13, 2022
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So, basically whichever side pulls in the NDP gets the Big Chair.
Not necessarily. Seat count is heavily in favour of Ontario and Quebec. Depending on what happens with the Bloc in Quebec can have a significant change in Liberal seats. Likewise, what happens with disaffected NDP in BC can make the difference. Conservatives have won the popular vote the last couple of elections but didn't get the gold.
 

Tecumsehsbones

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Not necessarily. Seat count is heavily in favour of Ontario and Quebec. Depending on what happens with the Bloc in Quebec can have a significant change in Liberal seats. Likewise, what happens with disaffected NDP in BC can make the difference. Conservatives have won the popular vote the last couple of elections but didn't get the gold.
Very true. Same here.

I am NOT saying our system is better than yours (it clearly isn't), but it seems odd to me that the PM seems to hold ALL the power.
 

The_Foxer

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He does. Also our Senate is appointed, not elected. Great way to stack the deck. THe King is the ceremonial head of the country , and the PM is supposed to get things done.
Not always - because we have a multi party system we can and frequently do have minority gov'ts. Sure - this one is a bad example because Jagmeet sold out his people so that he could get a pension and is basically a vassal of Trudeau but NORMALLY this prevents a prime minister from having all the power. And most of our gov'ts since 2000 have been minorities. Amusingly the vast majority have been minorities :)

We've had a majority in 2011, 2015 and thats it.

So there are checks and balances, the people can and often do clip the PM's wings and make him work and play well with others to get anything done.
 

The_Foxer

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So, basically whichever side pulls in the NDP gets the Big Chair.
No, athough it's a common liberal tactic to appeal to ndp voters to 'support the Liberals for this election only to stop the evil CPC (or conservative party of the day, used to be PC). "

But honestly it rarely works and even then, there's just not that many who are willing to switch sides to make a massive difference in most cases. And the ndp is pulling just as hard often enough to steal liberal voters and keep their own. People who support the ndp don't tend to care that the ndp isn't going to win, they think of the ndp as the 'official conscience' of the house and that it's job is to bring critical issues forward and uncover dirty dealings by the power in charge. A role they have performed historically with a reasonable amount of success. And of course in a minority they hold a LOT of power. Usually.

It would be more reasonable to say that whomever pulls ontario and quebec wins. Those two provinces make up more than 50 percent of the population and more than 50 percent of the seats. Thats why historically the liberals have been wiling to hurt the west badly to benefit those two provinces to win the votes.

When i was younger you knew who the prime minister was going to be and if it was a majority before the first seat was counted in the west and before the polls even closed in BC. Now they have laws not to announce that so that people in bc and the western provinces don't feel so bad :) But - the west is gaining more seats as our population grows. So now it's actually hard to win a majority without significant support in the west. The western provinces combined have more votes than quebec now. They can't just be completely ignored or screwed over like they could before.
 
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The_Foxer

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So, basically whichever side pulls in the NDP gets the Big Chair.
It's also worth noting one more thing. Prior to the end of ww1, there was a very serious and consistent policy of greatly limiting growith in the western provinces both in industry and in population. That's why america has about as many people living in the west as the east whereas that is not true in Canada at all, and until recently it wasn't even remotely close.

Many of those policies still drifted around for years after the official policy had ended as well. For example, even during my mom and grandfather's day it cost more money to ship goods east on the rail lines than it did to ship west - to protect eastern manufacturing and producers from western competition. Etc etc.

Now after 100 years the west's population is slowly starting to catch up, which means our political power is growing. But it's got a long way to go to catch up.
 

Taxslave2

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It's also worth noting one more thing. Prior to the end of ww1, there was a very serious and consistent policy of greatly limiting growith in the western provinces both in industry and in population. That's why america has about as many people living in the west as the east whereas that is not true in Canada at all, and until recently it wasn't even remotely close.

Many of those policies still drifted around for years after the official policy had ended as well. For example, even during my mom and grandfather's day it cost more money to ship goods east on the rail lines than it did to ship west - to protect eastern manufacturing and producers from western competition. Etc etc.

Now after 100 years the west's population is slowly starting to catch up, which means our political power is growing. But it's got a long way to go to catch up.
The crow rate was in effect when I was young. Largely why BC lumber went south and west more than east.
 

The_Foxer

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The crow rate was in effect when I was young. Largely why BC lumber went south and west more than east.
Yup. And why the prairies only shipped turkeys back east at xmas. :)

And it wasn't the only legacy policy. It was illegal for farmers in the west to sell their own crops, they HAD to sell through the wheat board - but in the east you could opt in or out.

I mean we still see anti western policy today but in those days it was a pretty hard core policy - no industry may be allowed to grow in the west and no major economic strengths either. It wasn't till bc managed to control it's own lumber and later alberta was able to control it's oil that we saw any kind of economic development in the west.

So it's no shocker that our population are nothing like the east despite centuries of development. But - with MOST of those restrictions gone we're starting to catch up.
 

Ron in Regina

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….So it's no shocker that our population are nothing like the east despite centuries of development. But - with MOST of those restrictions gone we're starting to catch up.
Define “the east” in the above statement. Where does “the east” start & stop (?) and is there a portion of Canada east of “the east” in your definition (?) & if so how is it differentiated from “the east” ???

(Personally, when I think Of Eastern Canada I’m meaning the Canadian Dong portion of Ontario & most of Quebec….& I’m not referring to most of Ontario, or NFLD or NB or NS or PEI….that’s why I ask)
 

The_Foxer

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Define “the east” in the above statement. Where does “the east” start & stop (?)
the east starts at the manitoba border (eastern one) and everything east of it is east. As every person raised in the west knows. Only in the east do they differentiate between "central" and "atlantic".

is there a portion of Canada east of “the east” in your definition (?) & if so how is it differentiated from “the east” ???
No. There is not.

(Personally, when I think Of Eastern Canada I’m meaning the Canadian Dong portion of Ontario & most of Quebec
Very very unusual for someone born here. I've had thousands of conversations with people from every western province and to them the east is the east. At best they might think of atlantic canada as being sort of the 'houseboy' of ontario and quebec who doesn't have much say and does what master tells them to, But - their values are far more closely aligned to 'eastern' values we'd see in ontario and quebec than any western values.
 
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Ron in Regina

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the east starts at the manitoba border (eastern one) and everything east of it is east. As every person raised in the west knows. Only in the east do they differentiate between "central" and "atlantic".
So you see this:
1668400788366.png
Very very unusual for someone born here. I've had thousands of conversations with people from every western province and to them the east is the east. At best they might think of atlantic canada as being sort of the 'houseboy' of ontario and quebec who doesn't have much say and does what master tells them to, But - their values are far more closely aligned to 'eastern' values we'd see in ontario and quebec than any western values.
When I think Of Eastern Canada I’m meaning the Canadian Dong portion of Ontario & most of Quebec….& I’m not referring to most of Ontario, or NFLD or NB or NS or PEI….but if you’re qualifying close alignment based upon values…is Vancouver in Eastern Canada?…Because it might be in my view of things. 😁 So I see Western Canada as the dark blue continuous portion similar to below:
1668401234887.png
 

The_Foxer

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When I think Of Eastern Canada I’m meaning the Canadian Dong portion of Ontario & most of Quebec….& I’m not referring to most of Ontario, or NFLD or NB or NS or PEI…
Like i said - very very very unusual way of thinking about the east. To the point where despite having had conversations like this for decades and with literally thousands of people over those decades this is the first time i've ever heard anyone claim that is "the east" the way you do.

but if you’re qualifying close alignment based upon values…is Vancouver in Eastern Canada?

Vancouver is not bc. It's not even 'vancouver' - there's blue and red ridings in vancouver itself and plenty of red blue and orange in "greater" vancouver as well.

SO your assertion is nonsensical. Unless you want to drill down to a riding by riding level - THIS riding is east and THAT riding is west... it makes no sense. Hell why stop there, lets drill down to the individual level - individual people are east or west! That makes sense right? :)

Further - you seem to be claiming that people's values can ONLY be expressed by the votes in their riding or the political party their ridings vote for. If your assertion is to be given any credit, we must assume that ONLY the dominant politics in a riding or area express people's values in general. You'll note i didn't mention anything about how people voted. You've presented 'votes' as the sole determining factor for people's values. And not just individual votes but rather entire areas.

And i think if you revisit that you'll immediately realize that claim is ALSO nonsensical. While how people vote may be affected by some of their values, it's not the definition of their values in their entirety. Or even their values at all, maybe they just like one of the policies that a politician is putting out there, or they think that this party can get the best deal for their province (bloc for example). Their vote may have little to do with their personal values.

And not to be THAT guy but... i think most would agree that a minimum prerequisite for being in the east is that you'd at least have to be in the east. Rather than the westernmost point.

Because it might be in my view of things.

Yes, well... i think we've established that your view of things in this particular regard is.... unique ;) Which is fine, nothing wrong with being unique. But it would mean we don't have a common frame of reference to discuss.
 

Serryah

Senate Member
Dec 3, 2008
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New Brunswick
So you see this:
View attachment 16418

When I think Of Eastern Canada I’m meaning the Canadian Dong portion of Ontario & most of Quebec….& I’m not referring to most of Ontario, or NFLD or NB or NS or PEI….but if you’re qualifying close alignment based upon values…is Vancouver in Eastern Canada?…Because it might be in my view of things. 😁 So I see Western Canada as the dark blue continuous portion similar to below:
View attachment 16419

There'in is the problem for anyone from the Maritimes.

We get thrown in the lot of "Oh the East!" with Quebec and Ontario, when we shouldn't be. Depending on the election, we can swing from red to blue pretty easily, especially in some areas.

Considering the number of people who live in "The West" that come from the Maritimes, calling us "The East" might be insulting :p
 
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