It's Heeeeere

[Reverend Blair]

Whoever is in power always goes on a spending spree just before an election. The Conservatives and NDP know that...they aren't political neophytes and would be doing the same thing themselves if the roles were reversed.

I don't think the punishment will be a real factor. If the election is called on Monday, the media will quit covering it by Friday.

Voter apathy will play a bigger role, but that will stop being mentioned on the news before x-mas and not show up again until the post-election analysis.

The big problem the parties will have is getting volunteers. They become scarce this time of year. That will likely hit the CPC hardest because of their demographic, and the Liberals second hardest. That won't make the news at all because the media never covers the volunteers that make campaigns work.

This election has no central issue though. Whoever frames the question is going to do well. The Liberals will push the economy and how scary Harper is on health care. The Conservatives are poised to scream about corruption. The NDP are going to go with healthcare. Same old, same old.

The election is going to come down to whoever screws up least winning. That will be the Liberals again. They are the ultimate election machine. It's what they do best.

 

[#juan]

Good post Rev

I think the main motivation driving most politicians is the need to get in power. Forcing an election when you have absolutely no chance of winning or changing things significantly is both stupid and irresponsible considering what an election costs. If the Liberals were doing damage to the economy I could understand trying to stop them but the economy is in great shape. Canada's debt to GDP ratio is better than any of the G-7 countries. In the final analysis there is the cost of the sponsership scandal. Right now that seems to be a rather thin excuse for an election that will probably solve nothing.

 

[bevvyd]

Hey Mr. Martin, hows about some tax breaks? It's coming up on year end you know.

 

[Reverend Blair]

The sponsorship scandal is a ridiculous issue because the core issues won't be addressed. That's what I like so much about the Broadbent Ethics package...it would make perfect sense even if there was no scandal. I really think that should be what Layton pushes and he should let his health critic (Jean Crowder) and Deputy Leader (Bill Blaikie) handle the health issue. They also need to get the whole caucus out talking about their portfolios.

The Conservatives need to do the same thing with their caucus. They have portfolios and each portfolio has an issue attached.

They never do that though. Nobody does. They pick a single major issue that the leader trumpets and everybody else echoes. Each party becomes a choir singing only one note. It's bizarre.

Something we don't have access to is internal party polling. Not just the polls they do on the general public, but the casual ones they do within the parties. Leaders keep an eye on those because even if they lose an election, they can still have a career if they don't piss off the party. How many former party leaders are sitting in the house right now? I count three and they are all still influential within their parties. That's because they watched the internal polls and played things right.

 

[no1important]

Winter election to create unique set of problems

A teaser:

Being unable to pound in lawn signs or encountering voters who don't want to lose heat by opening their doors are two problems politicians will likely face if they hit the hustings this winter.

"I guess when the snow gets thick enough, we can stick it in the snow bank," said a headband-wearing Conservative Keith Fountain, who will be running in Ottawa Centre if an election is indeed triggered by a Monday vote of non-confidence in the Liberal minority government.

Well us out here in paradise wont have to worry about not being able to pound signs in our lawns. Nor do we have to worry about the cold either just the possibility of rain and/or fog.

and on another election note:

Martin makes campaign-style speech in B.C.

A teaser:

Prime Minister Paul Martin appeared to be kicking something off during a Grey Cup weekend visit to B.C. -- that something being an election campaign.

"This election campaign will not only talk about where we have come, it's about where we are going as a nation," he told a crowd of party faithful in Vancouver on Saturday.

Saw on the news today the liberal pep rally, they had cabinet ministers from BC run into the room giving hi fives to people on the way in, like they were some sort of athletes or something. ha ha

 

[no1important]

Canada's Martin Ousted by Parliament Over Scandal, Forcing Vote

A teaser:

A minority led by the Conservative Party may be even less effective because it has no natural allies in parliament, said Richard Anderson, a former senior adviser to Preston Manning, Canada's opposition leader between 1997 and 2000.

The Bloc Quebecois is seeking the separation of Quebec from the rest of the country. And animosity between Martin and Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper means an alliance between the country's two largest parties is unlikely.

Harper, 46, has ``managed to create for himself a situation where he can't win a majority and couldn't govern if he had a minority,'' Anderson said.

 

[Jay]

Well I certainly doubt the NDP would b looking to make "parliament work" if the Conservatives were voted into a minority situation.

 

[Roy]

A minority led by the Conservative Party may be even less effective because it has no natural allies in parliament, said Richard Anderson, a former senior adviser to Preston Manning, Canada's opposition leader between 1997 and 2000.

I don't know, because I would bet that we would not be having another election next decemeber or for a few years. I think the Cons would have to ally with the liberals which is good so they would have to be more socially open, while they could be more economically conservative, which I think would do canada some good.

 

[no1important]

A lot of people assume cons and bloc would form a coalition but the Bloc is a left wing party and the cons are the only major far right wing party in Canada.

Personally a conservative miniority would not last as long as Joe Clarks miniority.

 

[Roy]

A lot of people assume cons and bloc would form a coalition but the Bloc is a left wing party and the cons are the only major far right wing party in Canada.

bloq with the cons...yea right. :? I disagree that the conservatives are a far right party, they are pretty close to the liberals in terms of being right or left. Liberals are barely left of center and Conservative is barely right of center.

 

[Jay]

Re: RE: It's Heeeeere

A lot of people assume cons and bloc would form a coalition but the Bloc is a left wing party and the cons are the only major far right wing party in Canada.

Personally a conservative miniority would not last as long as Joe Clarks miniority.

If they were to form a coalilition, it would be based on provincial power; the one thing they both agree on a lot. IMO

 

[Reverend Blair]

The Liberals aren't left of centre at all, Roy. They may run from the left, but if you look at their record they very much govern from the right...especially since Martin took over.

The Conservatives aren't close to centre either. Their basic criticism of the Liberals on everything but social issues is that the Liberals are nasty enough. On social issues, the Conservatives are basically stuck in 1952.

 

[Jay]

Not everyone wants a nanny state Rev.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Not everybody wants a corporate boot on the back of their neck, Jay.

 

[no1important]

What did you guys think of Harpers speech? I thought it was lame. Harper is not a seasoned speaker like Paul or Jack. He does not come across with any authority or determination, just school yard mudslinging.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Harper's speech sounded like the same old thing. He hasn't got an issue that he cares to deal with in public, I guess.

 

[Jay]

I missed his speech. But your right no1, he isn't "seasoned". He isn't a statesman.

 

[no1important]

Well I am first on the street with any lawn signs up.

 

[Reverend Blair]

But your right no1, he isn't "seasoned". He isn't a statesman.

He's spent his entire life in politics one way or another, Jay. If he can't manage to appear statesman-like at the kick-off of a campaign, it speaks to a lack of character.

 

[no1important]

Well I guess we will find out any minute that the election will be on Jan 23,2006. Martin is getting ready to walk to GG's residence. It is on Newsworld and main CBC network if anyone is interested. CBC has much better coverage and analysis than CTV or CTV Newsnet in my opinion.