Iranically Iran, Middle East’s Karen…

petros

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Trumps messaging is at best confusingly mixed.
(YouTube & Trump considers 'winding down' Iran war and leaving Strait of Hormuz crisis to 'other nations')
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Most of the comments I’m reading to kinda get a finger on the pulse are similar in their feel. Earlier in the day was this:
(YouTube & Iran threatens world tourism sites and says it's still building missiles - AP explains)
Iran has been stockpiling Ayatollahs, US and Israel lost again.
 

Ron in Regina

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Countries around the world are now scrambling to figure out how to backfill the abrupt halt of LNG shipments from Qatar, which accounts for one-fifth of the world’s supply. Asian spot LNG prices surged nearly 40 percent in the couple of days and a key index of future LNG prices in Europe jumped 70 percent since Friday.
Corn is the largest cash crop in the United States by both planted acreage and total value, contributing over $88 billion in annual production value. It is primarily grown in the Midwest's "Corn Belt," with top uses including livestock feed (95% of feed grain), ethanol production, and human food products like cereal and sweeteners.
(LNG is also a crucial component in fertilizer….& it’s Spring planting season for the northern hemisphere)
On Friday, drone attacks hit Kuwait's giant Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, causing a fire that was later brought under control, a day after a direct hit on Qatar's vital Ras Laffan natural gas facility.

The attack caused "extensive damage" that Qatar's state energy company said could cost $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take five years to repair.

Corn is highly dependent on nitrogen (N) fertilizer, with N acting as the primary nutrient driving vegetative growth, ear development, and final yield. In modern, high-intensity agriculture, corn has a high nitrogen demand, generally requiring roughly 1.0 to 1.2 pounds of nitrogen per bushel of grain produced.

North America does not have the capacity to create a fully self-sufficient nitrogen fertilizer supply before the 2026 spring planting season.

Despite having substantial production capabilities, the U.S. and Canada remain heavily reliant on imports to meet demand, with shortages estimated at approximately 25% for the 2026 spring planting season.

North America is expected to remain vulnerable to global supply shocks throughout the 2026 planting season, with 2027 considered a more realistic timeframe for significant supply improvements to take hold. The shortage is prompting farmers to consider shifting from nitrogen-intensive crops like corn to less-dependent options like soybeans.

This is 2/3’rds of the way through March at this point. How quickly can agricultural producers pivot from corn to soybeans? While switching is fast, farmers are still limited by the machinery they own, the seeds they have already purchased, and existing supply chains. While some acreage can pivot, a total abandonment of corn is impossible due to its integral place in American agricultural economics and fuel markets.
(YouTube & Iran targets Middle East energy infrastructures after Israeli strike on gas field)
Not winning.
Doesn’t sound like it tonight.
 
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petros

The Central Scrutinizer
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.North America does not have the capacity to create a fully self-sufficient nitrogen fertilizer supply before the 2026 spring planting season.

Despite having substantial production capabilities, the U.S. and Canada remain heavily reliant on imports to meet demand, with shortages estimated at approximately 25% for the 2026 spring planting season.
Yara is upping capacity at Belle Plain. Started a year ago.
 
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Ron in Regina

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"President Trump's threat has now placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets. If the ultimatum is not walked back, we will likely see a Black Monday reopening of global equity markets in free fall and oil prices spiking significantly higher," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
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Tehran would likely target Gulf energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which "would deepen and prolong the ⁠pain of higher energy prices and drag the conflict into a broader regional crisis", Sycamore said. Oil prices jumped on Friday and settled at their highest in nearly four years, after Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign firms, Israel attacked a major gas field in Iran and Tehran responded with strikes on neighbours, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait.
Iranian attacks have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow choke point that carries around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, causing the worst oil crisis since the 1970s. Its near-closure sent European gas prices surging as much as 35% last week.
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petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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"President Trump's threat has now placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets. If the ultimatum is not walked back, we will likely see a Black Monday reopening of global equity markets in free fall and oil prices spiking significantly higher," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
View attachment 33778
Tehran would likely target Gulf energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which "would deepen and prolong the ⁠pain of higher energy prices and drag the conflict into a broader regional crisis", Sycamore said. Oil prices jumped on Friday and settled at their highest in nearly four years, after Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign firms, Israel attacked a major gas field in Iran and Tehran responded with strikes on neighbours, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait.
Iranian attacks have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow choke point that carries around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, causing the worst oil crisis since the 1970s. Its near-closure sent European gas prices surging as much as 35% last week.
View attachment 33779
Are energy prices going up or is the USD losing value?
 

Ron in Regina

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Iran’s military capacity, clearly, has been greatly underestimated. Iranically, it was the Ukrainians who warned us about this possibility, years ago. In the third year of his four-year war with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the United Nations that modern warfare had completely changed — because of drones.😳

Drones, Zelenskyy noted, cost just US$10,000 or less — while Patriot missiles cost $4 million. And the main source of the drones Russia was using against the Ukrainian people? Iran.

It is estimated Iran is sitting on a stockpile of 80,000 Shahed drones, which — by any reasonable standard — is a massive stockpile. Iran is producing hundreds of new Shaheds every week, and have deployed more than 2,000 of them across the Gulf region.

Iran’s drones don’t need runways or missile launchers. They require only a small rocket booster and can be launched off the back of pickup trucks and off the decks of small boats, and then travel 2,500 kilometres. The Shaheds can carry 50 kilograms of explosives, which is enough to completely destroy a house or a few floors of an apartment building. The Iranians — and the Russians — have perfected deployed the Shaheds in swarms, too, overwhelming Western-style defence systems.
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President Trump turned down Ukraine's offer of drone experts and technology for the Middle East by stating the U.S. does not need foreign assistance, claiming, "We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually," according to Politico and NPR.
(YouTube & Trump tells Zelenskyy: “You have to be thankful, you don’t have the cards.”)

The rejection reflects an "America First" approach to defense, despite reports that Ukrainian technology was highly effective against Iranian-made drones, so oh well…
Zelenskyy seems absolutely prophetic at this point, and the above video in today’s light…well…you’d have to watch it again yourself.
 
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Taxslave2

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Not the first time US intelligence agencies have seriously underestimated the competition because of their inability to believe other people are smarter than them.
 
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Blackleaf

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Britain sends robotic ships to Iran

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Britain's Royal Navy is to send its fleet of unmanned robotic minesweepers and drone boats to the Strait of Hormuz in response to US calls for assistance.

The Royal Navy currently has three autonomous minesweepers and will soon have 20 autonomous drone ships - 23 autonomous ships.

What she currently has of that fleet she is sending to the Middle East.

In addition, Britain is to lead a coalition of 30 countries in freeing the strait.

Welcome to warfare in 2026...

 
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Ron in Regina

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stressed that while the UK is leading these efforts, they are intended as a collaborative effort to restore freedom of navigation and not as a NATO-led mission.
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I wonder how much Iran will charge for each pass through that strait with a minesweeper with its “Tehran Toll Booth”?

(Between my father and his brothers, two served in the army, two served in the Navy including one uncle that served on a minesweeper north of Cuba in the early ‘60’s, one was in the airborne, and one went to hairdressing school & he was a very cool dude in his own right!)
 

Blackleaf

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stressed that while the UK is leading these efforts, they are intended as a collaborative effort to restore freedom of navigation and not as a NATO-led mission.
View attachment 33815
I wonder how much Iran will charge for each pass through that strait with a minesweeper with its “Tehran Toll Booth”?

(Between my father and his brothers, two served in the army, two served in the Navy including one uncle that served on a minesweeper north of Cuba in the early ‘60’s, one was in the airborne, and one went to hairdressing school & he was a very cool dude in his own right!)

Starmer has only ordered British naval might to the Strait of Hormuz because the United States has been scathing of lack of support from her closest ally. Starmer has been embarrassed into action by the United States. But hopefully a flotilla of Royal Navy autonomous minesweepers and drone ships and Britain leading a coalition of 30 countries will set things right with Trump.

"The British are coming!"
 

Tecumsehsbones

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Starmer has only ordered British naval might to the Strait of Hormuz because the United States has been scathing of lack of support from her closest ally. Starmer has been embarrassed into action by the United States. But hopefully a flotilla of Royal Navy autonomous minesweepers and drone ships and Britain leading a coalition of 30 countries will set things right with Trump.

"The British are coming!"
Rule Brittania!
Brittania rules the waves
The sons of England
Never shall pay these petrol prices!
 

Ron in Regina

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Not the first time US intelligence agencies have seriously underestimated the competition because of their inability to believe other people are smarter than them.
 

Ron in Regina

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As smart? Anyway…Google AI tries to answer my question.

No, you cannot kick a hornet's nest and then negotiate a cease-fire. Once a hornet's nest is disturbed, the insects are driven by intense defensive instincts to protect their queen and larvae, rather than by human concepts of conflict resolution or victory.
Why You Cannot Negotiate with Hornets
  • Automatic Response: Hornets do not differentiate between a "test" kick and an act of war. A disturbance triggers immediate, coordinated aggression.
  • Chemical Alarm System: When threatened, hornets release alarm pheromones. These chemical signals act as a "call to arms," mobilizing the entire colony to attack, which continues even if the original attacker stops moving.
  • No Cease-fire: Hornets cannot be told that you are "done." They will continue to attack until the perceived threat is gone or they lose the scent of the pheromones.
  • Multiple Stings: Unlike honeybees, hornets can sting multiple times, making a counter-attack sustained and severe.
What Actually Happens
  • Aggressive Swarming: A kicked nest results in hundreds of angry, stinging hornets rushing out, aimed at the perpetrator.
  • Tracking the Attacker: Hornets can identify the attacker by detecting the carbon dioxide in their breath.
  • Long-lasting Aggression: If a nest is attacked but not destroyed, the remaining hornets may stay and be aggressive for hours or even days, sometimes attempting to rebuild.
The popular idiom "don't kick the hornet's nest" is a metaphor for this exact scenario: taking a reckless action that causes a large, uncontrollable, and dangerous reaction. The only way to stop the attack is to leave the area immediately.

Iranians aren’t hornets, but an interesting attempt at an answer by Google AI none the less.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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As smart? Anyway…Google AI tries to answer my question.

No, you cannot kick a hornet's nest and then negotiate a cease-fire. Once a hornet's nest is disturbed, the insects are driven by intense defensive instincts to protect their queen and larvae, rather than by human concepts of conflict resolution or victory.
Why You Cannot Negotiate with Hornets
  • Automatic Response: Hornets do not differentiate between a "test" kick and an act of war. A disturbance triggers immediate, coordinated aggression.
  • Chemical Alarm System: When threatened, hornets release alarm pheromones. These chemical signals act as a "call to arms," mobilizing the entire colony to attack, which continues even if the original attacker stops moving.
  • No Cease-fire: Hornets cannot be told that you are "done." They will continue to attack until the perceived threat is gone or they lose the scent of the pheromones.
  • Multiple Stings: Unlike honeybees, hornets can sting multiple times, making a counter-attack sustained and severe.
What Actually Happens
  • Aggressive Swarming: A kicked nest results in hundreds of angry, stinging hornets rushing out, aimed at the perpetrator.
  • Tracking the Attacker: Hornets can identify the attacker by detecting the carbon dioxide in their breath.
  • Long-lasting Aggression: If a nest is attacked but not destroyed, the remaining hornets may stay and be aggressive for hours or even days, sometimes attempting to rebuild.
The popular idiom "don't kick the hornet's nest" is a metaphor for this exact scenario: taking a reckless action that causes a large, uncontrollable, and dangerous reaction. The only way to stop the attack is to leave the area immediately.

Iranians aren’t hornets, but an interesting attempt at an answer by Google AI none the less.
What changed that you now use AI?