Serious question. . . I suppose technically anything could happen, but as I understand it, you're down to a two-horse race for the next PM, True Dope and Poo-lover, right?
Yeah, pretty much, for all intents and purposes, but anything is possible, but most outcomes beyond that are not probable.
Short version. There’s many many federal political parties, but most are just not viable (Communist Left-Handed Vegan Party, etc…for example)…. But of those that have potential currently, or potentially within the next handful of cycles there of the following:
1) Liberals
2) NDP
3) Bloc Québécois
4) CPC (Conservatives)
5) Greens
6) some break away, further right leaning party, whose name I can’t even recall at this point run by Maxine Bernier.
(Dark horses that don’t currently exist, can come out and gain popularity, and within a few cycles be a potential contender)
Out of the above Parties, #’s 5 & 6 are lucky to get 1-3 seats out of the (currently) 338 available.
The Bloc Québécois (#3) is really a regional party only inside and for Quebec, so it’s never going to be anything beyond a voting block for Québec’s interests, so it’s a potential coalition partner, and that’s about it.
(That boils things back down to three parties currently being #’s 1,2, & 4)
With Parties 1 & 2 in something like but not a coalition (let’s call it a non-coalition coalition), with party #2 (no pun intended) propping up party #1 regardless of the ethic scandals or shenanigans…has shown itself (in its current incarnation, until they reinvent themselves, which they’re not gonna do with their current leader) as a yappy disloyal Chihuahua type of party, so it’s probably going to be beyond irrelevant in the near to immediate future. It’s usually (for Canada’s perception of political scale) off to the left of centre somewhat to more than somewhat…
That, as you’ve observed above in your questioning, really leaves two parties (and some potential alliances or coalitions with the other parties) to choose from.
“Usually” they’re not much different than each other, with the Liberals a bit left of center, & the CPC a bit right of center. I say usually as every so often one or the other veers off away from the centre in a somewhat dramatic fashion, and eventually gets spanked by the electorate until they return back to somewhat close to the centre again. Either party can do this and the safeguard is the other party hopefully Stays near the centre to give an alternative to the tangents. That’s how I understand things anyway.
“Usually” a party gets one or two cycles in power, then they get recycled, and the other one gets one or two cycles, and it gets recycled to reset back towards the centre hopefully. There have been a few exceptions over time but that’s usually the pattern.
I’m sure (and would almost be disappointed if) someone else doesn’t see the above situation completely differently and comes along to correct what I’m stating.
The
two dominant political parties in Canada have historically been the current
Liberal Party of Canada and the
Conservative Party of Canada (as well as its numerous
predecessors).
en.wikipedia.org
(Only Liberals or Conservatives have ever held the Office of the PM)