No clear winner forseen in Iraq
By Dexter Filkins The New York Times
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2005
BAGHDAD As Iraqi and American troops fanned out Wednesday to prepare for nationwide elections, Iraqi leaders predicted a split verdict from the voters, dividing the country almost evenly between secular and Islamist parties and beginning a period of protracted bargaining that will determine the shape of the new government here for the next four years.
The voting, which is expected to draw as many as 10 million Iraqis to the polls Thursday, will mark the formal end to the American-backed political process that was designed to foster a democratic government following the American invasion in March 2003.
The elections are also expected to lay the groundwork for what could be the beginning of significant reductions in the number of American troops here from their current level of about 150,000.
Iraqi and American official said preliminary results of the election will not be ready for about one week.
The results will determine not just the shape of the next Iraqi government, but will also exert a more lasting impact on the country, due to the special four-month period that Iraqi leaders decided to give to the Parliament to amend the new Iraqi constitution.
The cleric-led Shiite coalition is expected to get the largest number of votes but to fall short of capturing a majority of the 275 Parliament seats that would enable Adil Abdul Mahdi, the group's likely nominee for prime minister, to form a government.
Arrayed against the Shiite bloc is likely to be a largely secular grouping of political parties led by Ayad Allawi, the former Baathist and secular Shiite who has attracted a large following among Sunni Arabs. The Sunnis, who largely sat out the elections in January, are expected to turn out in significantly higher numbers this time and may become the single most influential voting bloc.
Along with the Sunnis, Allawi is hoping to bring together the two major Kurdish parties, whose leaders share his secular outlook. Yet even Allawi's coalition, if it comes together at all, is not expected to gain an absolute majority, at least not initially.
The deadlock sets the stage for a lengthy period of intense political maneuvering, as the two major blocs try to secure the necessary allies to form a government. Some Iraqi political leaders are predicting that it will take weeks - or even months - to form a government. After the January elections, when the Shiite coalition was able to secure a majority, the government did not take power until April.
"We will need much more time to negotiate things," Mahdi said. "Instead of negotiating between two slates, as we did in January, there will be negotiations between three and even more."
The formation of the next Iraqi government is expected to be further complicated and delayed by the requirement of a two-thirds majority vote for the election of a "presidential council" that will nominate the prime minister to the Parliament. That means that any Iraqi leader hoping to form a government will effectively have to muster a super-majority to do so.
In a post-election environment expected to be split, garnering the necessary votes may take time.
In addition, Iraqi leaders say that proposed amendments to the constitution will probably enter into the negotiations over the new government as well, with some members of the Parliament seeking certain changes to the charter in exchange for their support.
This is particularly likely in the case of Sunnis who are elected to the new Parliament; many believe that the new constitution could fatally weaken the Iraqi central government, like the provision that would grant broad powers to smaller regions inside the country.
Finally, the formation of a new government is likely to be further complicated by the demand, now in the constitution, the Parliament pass as many as 50 laws implementing some of its more general provisions.
The shape of that legislation, which is supposed to deal with such sensitive issues as the procedures for allowing regions of the country to gain autonomy, could further complicated the negotiations.
The biggest question hovering over the election is whether to Shiite coalition - a diverse gathering of 18 conservative Shiite parties - can hang together after the election or whether it will be picked apart by other politicians like Allawi, or Ahmed Chalabi, a secular Shiite politician who is leading his own slate of candidates.
At the moment, the two weak spots in the coalition appear to be the Islamic Fadhela Party, whose leaders have threatened to leave, and the Sadr Movement, which is associated with Muqtada Al Sadr, the young radical Shiite cleric.
It is not certain where those parties would go, but they could move toward Chalabi or, less likely, to Allawi.
For their part, the leaders of the Shiite coalition insist that for all the pressure on the alliance to break up they will, in the end, stick together.
"You remember last time, people said it wouldn't last," Mahdi said. "But it did. It is by interest, not by orders. Once people feel it is not in their interest, they will leave."
The single most novel aspect of this election, as opposed to the one last year, is likely to be significant participation among Sunni voters.
All indications are that the Sunnis will turn out in large numbers, except perhaps in Anbar Province, the center of the guerrilla insurgency.
Many Sunni candidates, whom American and Iraqis officials are eager to bring into the political process, say they are running primarily to amend the charter, which they say could, if left unchanged, fatally cripple the central government and push Iraq closer to civil war.
For the moment, the prospect of electing its own representatives to the Parliament appears to have driven a significant wedge into the Sunni-backed insurgency, with some guerrilla groups, like the Baathist-backed Islamic Army, calling for a cessation of attacks on polling centers Thursday.
Earlier this week, an Internet message posted by five militant groups operating in Iraq, including Al Qaeda, denounced the elections and threatened to wreak havoc Thursday.
To protect against insurgent attacks, some 225,000 Iraqi police and soldiers, 90,000 more than in January, are taking up positions around the country to try to combat the efforts to disrupt the vote. They are being backed up by American troops.
BAGHDAD As Iraqi and American troops fanned out Wednesday to prepare for nationwide elections, Iraqi leaders predicted a split verdict from the voters, dividing the country almost evenly between secular and Islamist parties and beginning a period of protracted bargaining that will determine the shape of the new government here for the next four years.
The voting, which is expected to draw as many as 10 million Iraqis to the polls Thursday, will mark the formal end to the American-backed political process that was designed to foster a democratic government following the American invasion in March 2003.
The elections are also expected to lay the groundwork for what could be the beginning of significant reductions in the number of American troops here from their current level of about 150,000.
Iraqi and American official said preliminary results of the election will not be ready for about one week.
The results will determine not just the shape of the next Iraqi government, but will also exert a more lasting impact on the country, due to the special four-month period that Iraqi leaders decided to give to the Parliament to amend the new Iraqi constitution.
The cleric-led Shiite coalition is expected to get the largest number of votes but to fall short of capturing a majority of the 275 Parliament seats that would enable Adil Abdul Mahdi, the group's likely nominee for prime minister, to form a government.
Arrayed against the Shiite bloc is likely to be a largely secular grouping of political parties led by Ayad Allawi, the former Baathist and secular Shiite who has attracted a large following among Sunni Arabs. The Sunnis, who largely sat out the elections in January, are expected to turn out in significantly higher numbers this time and may become the single most influential voting bloc.
Along with the Sunnis, Allawi is hoping to bring together the two major Kurdish parties, whose leaders share his secular outlook. Yet even Allawi's coalition, if it comes together at all, is not expected to gain an absolute majority, at least not initially.
The deadlock sets the stage for a lengthy period of intense political maneuvering, as the two major blocs try to secure the necessary allies to form a government. Some Iraqi political leaders are predicting that it will take weeks - or even months - to form a government. After the January elections, when the Shiite coalition was able to secure a majority, the government did not take power until April.
"We will need much more time to negotiate things," Mahdi said. "Instead of negotiating between two slates, as we did in January, there will be negotiations between three and even more."
The formation of the next Iraqi government is expected to be further complicated and delayed by the requirement of a two-thirds majority vote for the election of a "presidential council" that will nominate the prime minister to the Parliament. That means that any Iraqi leader hoping to form a government will effectively have to muster a super-majority to do so.
In a post-election environment expected to be split, garnering the necessary votes may take time.
In addition, Iraqi leaders say that proposed amendments to the constitution will probably enter into the negotiations over the new government as well, with some members of the Parliament seeking certain changes to the charter in exchange for their support.
This is particularly likely in the case of Sunnis who are elected to the new Parliament; many believe that the new constitution could fatally weaken the Iraqi central government, like the provision that would grant broad powers to smaller regions inside the country.
Finally, the formation of a new government is likely to be further complicated by the demand, now in the constitution, the Parliament pass as many as 50 laws implementing some of its more general provisions.
The shape of that legislation, which is supposed to deal with such sensitive issues as the procedures for allowing regions of the country to gain autonomy, could further complicated the negotiations.
The biggest question hovering over the election is whether to Shiite coalition - a diverse gathering of 18 conservative Shiite parties - can hang together after the election or whether it will be picked apart by other politicians like Allawi, or Ahmed Chalabi, a secular Shiite politician who is leading his own slate of candidates.
At the moment, the two weak spots in the coalition appear to be the Islamic Fadhela Party, whose leaders have threatened to leave, and the Sadr Movement, which is associated with Muqtada Al Sadr, the young radical Shiite cleric.
It is not certain where those parties would go, but they could move toward Chalabi or, less likely, to Allawi.
For their part, the leaders of the Shiite coalition insist that for all the pressure on the alliance to break up they will, in the end, stick together.
"You remember last time, people said it wouldn't last," Mahdi said. "But it did. It is by interest, not by orders. Once people feel it is not in their interest, they will leave."
The single most novel aspect of this election, as opposed to the one last year, is likely to be significant participation among Sunni voters.
All indications are that the Sunnis will turn out in large numbers, except perhaps in Anbar Province, the center of the guerrilla insurgency.
Many Sunni candidates, whom American and Iraqis officials are eager to bring into the political process, say they are running primarily to amend the charter, which they say could, if left unchanged, fatally cripple the central government and push Iraq closer to civil war.
For the moment, the prospect of electing its own representatives to the Parliament appears to have driven a significant wedge into the Sunni-backed insurgency, with some guerrilla groups, like the Baathist-backed Islamic Army, calling for a cessation of attacks on polling centers Thursday.
Earlier this week, an Internet message posted by five militant groups operating in Iraq, including Al Qaeda, denounced the elections and threatened to wreak havoc Thursday.
To protect against insurgent attacks, some 225,000 Iraqi police and soldiers, 90,000 more than in January, are taking up positions around the country to try to combat the efforts to disrupt the vote. They are being backed up by American troops.
sure.......there IS a clear winner.......and it is who controls the massive invading military there. Everything else is just window dressing.
