Canadians worried about housing as Ottawa raises immigration targets: poll

The_Foxer

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Aug 9, 2022
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This is an interesting political gamble that's happening here. Trudeau believes that a large number of immigrants will boost the economy by a) filling critical labour shortages and b) being consumers that buy goods and pay taxes thus stimulating the economy while actually producing goods and services the economy wants (so inflation doesn't go ballistic).

If he's right, then by the next election the economy will be improving substantially and inflation will be lower and so on. He can run on that in the election.

But - those concerned about the immigration levels rightly point out that there won't be enough homes and the immigrants can't possibly build homes fast enough to address their population given how long a housing project takes to even get off the ground into the building stage. AND they won't be producing enough tax dollars soon enough for improvements to the medical system which is already trashed.

75 percent of the people were worried about that. Which means that 75 percent are going to blame trudeau and immigration if for ANY reason housing prices remain high or rental rates continue to climb or remain out of reach, and he'll have to wear a lot of the problems with the medical system too. Premiers under pressure from people about their medical system failures will point at trudeau.

SO either trudeau is going to have a good news story in 3 years - or he's going to have one hell of a disaster on his hands and the liberals may find themselves collapsing like the old federal PC party did.
 
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Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
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Immigration tends to circle around The four biggest cities of Toronto, Montreal, & Ottawa….& votes from those cities to decide the fate of the nation…& I’m intentionally not listing Calgary or Edmonton above as we know (ass/u/me) how they’ll vote anyway…

Those cities will see the greatest housing crunch in the next three years also. It won’t be painless but It’ll be interesting.
 

IdRatherBeSkiing

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Immigrants have traditionally voted for the party that admits them at least in the short term. Turning this many immigrants into citizens pulls in that many Lieberal voters. He might be viewing it as buying the next election.
 
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The_Foxer

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Immigration tends to circle around The four biggest cities of Toronto, Montreal, & Ottawa….& votes from those cities to decide the fate of the nation…& I’m intentionally not listing Calgary or Edmonton above as we know (ass/u/me) how they’ll vote anyway…

Those cities will see the greatest housing crunch in the next three years also. It won’t be painless but It’ll be interesting.
Very true of course, but there is a secondary effect - a lot of the people who already live here and feel more comfortable out of the ethnic communities in the big cities tend to move to the suburbs or further when the price-pressure hits. I did - bought a much nice place in the country for less money so why not. And thousands of others do the same. Especially with more work-from home opportunity.

So it tends to put price pressure on the outlying areas as well. For example - while vancouver is ballistic price wise for rent abbotsford and langley and even chilliwhak were starting to get pretty darn high as well pre-pandemic. With immigration flooding in you can bet they'll experience big jumps again as well.

So while the big metros will catch the worst of it, i think you'll see a lot of pressure in the general regional areas as well as there's spillover migration
 
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The_Foxer

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Immigrants have traditionally voted for the party that admits them at least in the short term. Turning this many immigrants into citizens pulls in that many Lieberal voters. He might be viewing it as buying the next election.
Immigrants can't vote. They would have to become full citizens and that won't happen in time for the next election.
 

The_Foxer

Council Member
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I think they can finish the process in 3 years can they not?
In theory but it's usually a little more than that. they can apply after three years. Which means the ones he brought in last year might possibly get citizenship MAYBE if they've cleared that horrible backlog, but none of the people this year or forward will have any chance.

Mind you they can technically donate or work on the campaigns.
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
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….SO either trudeau is going to have a good news story in 3 years - or he's going to have one hell of a disaster on his hands and the liberals may find themselves collapsing like the old federal PC party did.
Immigrants can't vote. They would have to become full citizens and that won't happen in time for the next election.
Immigrants have traditionally voted for the party that admits them at least in the short term. Turning this many immigrants into citizens pulls in that many Lieberal voters. He might be viewing it as buying the next election.
2 years for PR.
OK… A portion of this year‘s crop of new immigrants will be able to vote, and a portion of last year‘s, and a portion of the previous years…etc…

Anyone with a pulse that applied for it got Covid bucks from the federal government. Babysitters, whatever….$1800/month… month after month. Apply for COVID cash & you got it. Apply for welfare & you got COVID cash. Apply for EI or UIC or EIEIO & you got COVID cash.

Ottawa unveiled plans to admit 500,000 immigrants per year starting in 2025 to address a critical labour shortage across the country.

Now, in the 2015 Federal Election, the Liberals got about 1,300,000 MORE votes than the Conservatives…so the Liberals ended up with 184 seats vs the 99 that the Conservatives got. Looks about right.

Then in the 2019 Federal Election, the Liberals got about 200,000 LESS votes than the Conservatives…so the Liberals ended up with 184 seats vs the 99 that the Conservatives got. Looks very weird.

Then in the 2021 Federal Election, the Liberals got about 200,000 LESS votes than the Conservatives…so the Liberals ended up with 157 seats vs the 121 that the Conservatives got. It is what it is.

Bring in another 400,000/year for the next three years (current targets) with Jagmeet locking the Liberals in office for the next three years…& make the announcement at the beginning of cold & flu season…coincidence? Maybe, but maybe not.
 

pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
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OK… A portion of this year‘s crop of new immigrants will be able to vote, and a portion of last year‘s, and a portion of the previous years…etc…

Anyone with a pulse that applied for it got Covid bucks from the federal government. Babysitters, whatever….$1800/month… month after month. Apply for COVID cash & you got it. Apply for welfare & you got COVID cash. Apply for EI or UIC or EIEIO & you got COVID cash.

Ottawa unveiled plans to admit 500,000 immigrants per year starting in 2025 to address a critical labour shortage across the country.

Now, in the 2015 Federal Election, the Liberals got about 1,300,000 MORE votes than the Conservatives…so the Liberals ended up with 184 seats vs the 99 that the Conservatives got. Looks about right.

Then in the 2019 Federal Election, the Liberals got about 200,000 LESS votes than the Conservatives…so the Liberals ended up with 184 seats vs the 99 that the Conservatives got. Looks very weird.

Then in the 2015 Federal Election, the Liberals got about 200,000 LESS votes than the Conservatives…so the Liberals ended up with 157 seats vs the 121 that the Conservatives got. It is what it is.

Bring in another 400,000/year for the next three years (current targets) with Jagmeet locking the Liberals in office for the next three years…& make the announcement at the beginning of cold & flu season…coincidence? Maybe, but maybe not.
Yet somehow we expect to make our emission targets . Only in liberal land .
 

spaminator

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 26, 2009
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This is an interesting political gamble that's happening here. Trudeau believes that a large number of immigrants will boost the economy by a) filling critical labour shortages and b) being consumers that buy goods and pay taxes thus stimulating the economy while actually producing goods and services the economy wants (so inflation doesn't go ballistic).

If he's right, then by the next election the economy will be improving substantially and inflation will be lower and so on. He can run on that in the election.

But - those concerned about the immigration levels rightly point out that there won't be enough homes and the immigrants can't possibly build homes fast enough to address their population given how long a housing project takes to even get off the ground into the building stage. AND they won't be producing enough tax dollars soon enough for improvements to the medical system which is already trashed.

75 percent of the people were worried about that. Which means that 75 percent are going to blame trudeau and immigration if for ANY reason housing prices remain high or rental rates continue to climb or remain out of reach, and he'll have to wear a lot of the problems with the medical system too. Premiers under pressure from people about their medical system failures will point at trudeau.

SO either trudeau is going to have a good news story in 3 years - or he's going to have one hell of a disaster on his hands and the liberals may find themselves collapsing like the old federal PC party did.
1668657417121.png
 

Taxslave2

Electoral Member
Aug 13, 2022
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We aren't really growing the population with immigration. We are replacing the dead/dying and the lack of newborns.
We are already overpopulated. More people just makes more problems. Even more so when TurdOWE insists on bringing in immigrants from third world countries that we have to educate and medicate.
 
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petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Far from overpopulated. Too many people murdered their babies or were too selfish to have any. Why do you think you can't get decent service anywhere anymore or have to deal with morons? Population is shrinking fast.
 
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The_Foxer

Council Member
Aug 9, 2022
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You guys are killing me.

By no possible metric are we 'overpopulated'. The US actually has less livable land mass than us and close to 10 times the population. And even THEY aren't overcrowded. The lower mainland in bc can easily accomodate a million new homes (homes, not just people) without blinking. Edmonton and Calgary could be greatly expanded quite comfortably. We haven't even scratched the two other prairie provinces. And the maritimes are shutting entire towns down because there's nobody to live in them.

The idea that somehow the second largest country in the world is "at max capacity" with only 40 million people is beyond laughable. The challange is that we simply don't bother building the infrastructure we need for the population we do have. Not enough homes or medical facilities/services, not enough schools, not enough infrastructure, and we do little to encourage investment or growth outside the cores. If you have only 2 people in the whole country, but only enough infrastructure for 1, it would feel crowded even tho it obviously isn't. So overcrowding isn't the problem.

And one only has to be able to count to realize we are NOT a shrinking population. Thanks to immigration we're growing at a significant rate. Natural growth is very low or non existant but that's a problem in every major country right now - you need two incomes to get by and people do that instead of having kids We screwed ourselves over pretty bad when we allowed that to happen in the 70's, but that's the way it is. But at the end of the day our population is still growing.

What people are concerned about is the rate of growth compared to the rate at which we can put in new infrastructure - homes, schools, doctors, etc. IF that ratio is unbalanced, there's going to be a problem. And they are afraid it is.
 

petros

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And one only has to be able to count to realize we are NOT a shrinking population.
Without enhanced immigration, we're shrinking....FAST.


Lowest population growth rate since 1916 because of COVID-19​

Canada's population growth in 2020 was vastly reduced because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the year, the population increased by 149,461 (+0.4%) to reach 38,048,738 on January 1, 2021, about one-quarter of the growth seen in 2019 (575,038 or +1.5%). This was the lowest annual growth since 1945 (in number) and 1916 (in percent), both periods in which Canada was at war.

The population grew in most provinces and territories in 2020, albeit at a slower pace than in 2019 (except for Nunavut). Ontario (+0.4%) had its lowest annual growth rate since 1917 and British Columbia (+0.4%) had its lowest annual growth rate since 1874. Growth was negative in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.6%), while the population was stable in Saskatchewan (-0.0%) and the Northwest Territories (+0.0%).

Deaths reach record high​

In 2020, deaths in Canada surpassed 300,000 (309,893) for the first time in Canadian history. The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reported that 15,651 or 5.1% of deaths in 2020 were caused by COVID-19, meaning that the pandemic is estimated to have been the cause of about 1 in 20 deaths in Canada. This proportion was lower than what was estimated in the United Kingdom (12.3%), the United States (11.2%) and France (9.7%) but higher than in Australia (0.7%) and New Zealand (0.1%).

Despite the increase, the number of deaths in 2020 was still lower than the number of births (372,727). Accordingly, natural increase (births minus deaths, +62,834) fell to its lowest annual level since at least 1922.

However, the increased number of deaths was not the main source of lower population growth in 2020. The most significant demographic impact of the pandemic came from changes to international migration.

International migration curtailed by the pandemic​

International migration has accounted for more than three-quarters of the total population growth since 2016, reaching 85.7% in 2019. Following border and travel restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020, this percentage fell to 58.0%. Population increase through international migration in 2020 was over 80% lower than it was in 2019.

This trend of lower international migration is not unique to Canada and has been observed elsewhere in the world. For example, net migration in New Zealand decreased by 39.6% in 2020, even though it was not hit as hard by the pandemic as Canada was.

Canada welcomed 184,624 immigrants in 2020, down by almost half from 2019 and the lowest in any year since 1998. The pre-pandemic target for immigration set by Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada was 341,000.

The decrease in the number of non-permanent residents caused by COVID-19 played a major role in the slower growth in 2020. More non-permanent residents left Canada than came to the country in 2020 (-86,535)—the largest net loss since comparable data have been available. By comparison, Canada had a net gain of 190,952 non-permanent residents in 2019. Every province and territory except Prince Edward Island had a net loss of non-permanent residents in 2020—almost entirely because there were fewer work and study permit holders.

Travel and border restrictions in 2020 also impacted the movement of Canadians leaving and returning to the country (and changing their usual place of residence minus net emigration). In 2020, the population change brought about by these movements was just over one-quarter of the levels observed in 2019.

Canadians continue to move between provinces, but fewer than in 2019​

There were 8.8% fewer people moving from one province or territory to another in 2020 than there were a year earlier. British Columbia (+20,994) had the highest net gain through interprovincial migration for the sixth consecutive year. This was also the largest net gain in the province since 2016. Saskatchewan had the largest net loss to other provinces or territories (-10,318) for the third straight year.

Signs of recovery for most components of population growth, except deaths, in the fourth quarter​

Deaths in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached a record high for any quarter since comparable records became available (81,759). This was mainly due to more deaths from COVID-19 in the fourth quarter (6,324 according to the PHAC) during the resurgence of the pandemic.

International migration started to rebound slightly in the fourth quarter. Both the number of immigrants and net non-permanent residents were much lower than they were during the same period one year ago, but were up from the third quarter.

Immigration was about half of what it was in 2019, but was up 2.6% from the third quarter of 2020. The net number of non-permanent residents was negative in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-2,560), following the typical seasonal pattern, but was up from the record low in the third quarter (-65,754). This change was mostly due to an increase in the number of work permit holders.

By the fourth quarter, the number of interprovincial migrants was beginning to return to its pre-pandemic levels. In the third quarter, levels were down by 21.7% from the previous year. Although they were still down in the fourth quarter, the year-over-year decrease was smaller (-10.6%) than it was in the third quarter.

 
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The_Foxer

Council Member
Aug 9, 2022
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Without enhanced immigration, we're shrinking....FAST.

But... we HAVE immigration.. So it isn't.

Sooooo ..,,, not shrinking.

So when we're talking about whether or not in the real world canada's population is growing or shrinking, it's growing. At a fairly good clip actually.

This isn't going to turn into one of those things where you try to defend a position that's utterly ridiculous is it? Our population is growing. We're not shrinking. That's a fact. If your argument is that if thinks were different than they are then they'd be different,... er, sure. Sure they would.

Canada is not overcrowded, nor is our population shrinking. Neither of those two things are actual issues we face.
 
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