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Harper seen as most trusted leader, poll finds
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has not only been judged the winner of Monday's leaders' debate, he is now the leader Canadians most trust to become prime minister, a new poll says.
The poll, prepared by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, had people picking the winner as follows (percentage-point change from the December post-debate poll in brackets):
Stephen Harper: 37 per cent (+26)
Paul Martin: 14 per cent (-7)
Jack Layton: 8 per cent (+2)
Gilles Duceppe: 3 per cent (-12)
DK/NA/Ref: 37 per cent
Here's how respondents rated the leaders on whether they did better than worse than expected (percentage-point change from December post-debate poll in brackets):
Stephen Harper: +21 (+26)
Jack Layton: -7 (-17)
Gilles Duceppe: 0 (-5)
Paul Martin: -20 (-16)
Here are the numbers on trust (percentage-point change from Nov. 24-27 pre-election poll in brackets):
Stephen Harper: 32 per cent (+5)
Paul Martin: 25 per cent (-8)
Jack Layton: 17 per cent (-3)
Gilles Duceppe: 6 per cent (-3)
None/other: 13 per cent (+5)
DK/NA/Ref: 7 per cent (+3)
Stunningly, Quebec respondents now trust Harper (27 per cent) as much as they do Duceppe (26 per cent). These results do not include any reaction to Tuesday's French-language debate.
When it comes to overall impressions, here are the ratings in percentage points (percentage-point change from Dec. 18-20):
Gilles Duceppe: +50 (unchanged)
Jack Layton: +30 (+8)
Stephen Harper: +10 (+20)
Paul Martin: -24 (-22)
Harper now has a net favourable rating in Quebec of +6. In comparison, Martin is -60. To make things worse for Martin, three per cent of Quebec respondents look on him very favourably, while 46 per cent look on him very unfavourably.
"That's like, 'we don't even want to know you'," Tim Woolstencroft of the Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Wednesday.
Woolstencroft said those numbers have him thinking the Liberals' strategy at this point is to "rebuild the bridge" between the public and that which they previously found dislikeable or scary about Harper.
He wants to see whether the new attack ads unleashed Tuesday will have an impact on blunting Tory momentum and popularity.
Popularity, momentum numbers
Here is how national support for parties is allocated (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3, when the Grits and Tories were tied):
Conservatives: 39 per cent (+7)
Liberals: 28 per cent (-4)
NDP: 16 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (-1)
Greens: 5 per cent (-1)
For the rest of Canada outside Quebec, the Tories hold a 43-31 lead over the Liberals.
In terms of momentum, Woolstencroft said the Tories may have stopped growing, but with 64 per cent of respondents rating them as having the most momentum, compared to 12 per cent for the Liberals, they have lots of breathing room.
In Quebec, the Tories continue to rise, while the Liberals fall and the Bloc hovers around the 50 per cent mark (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3 in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 50 per cent (-2)
Conservatives: 23 per cent (+10)
Liberals: 16 per cent (-10)
NDP: 7 per cent (+2)
Greens: 4 per cent (unchanged)
The Conservatives have seen a four-point drop in support in Ontario in the last few days. Here are the current numbers (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3 in brackets):
Liberals: 37 per cent (unchanged)
Conservatives: 36 per cent (+2)
NDP: 19 per cent (-2)
Greens: 8 per cent (unchanged)
Besides Quebec, B.C. is also contributing strongly to the Conservatives' overall growth in popularity (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3 in brackets):
Conservatives: 47 per cent (+12)
Liberals: 26 per cent (-8)
NDP: 24 per cent (-1)
Greens: 3 per cent (-3)
The Tories remain overwhelmingly dominant on the Prairies.
Harper seen as most trusted leader, poll finds
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has not only been judged the winner of Monday's leaders' debate, he is now the leader Canadians most trust to become prime minister, a new poll says.
The poll, prepared by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, had people picking the winner as follows (percentage-point change from the December post-debate poll in brackets):
Stephen Harper: 37 per cent (+26)
Paul Martin: 14 per cent (-7)
Jack Layton: 8 per cent (+2)
Gilles Duceppe: 3 per cent (-12)
DK/NA/Ref: 37 per cent
Here's how respondents rated the leaders on whether they did better than worse than expected (percentage-point change from December post-debate poll in brackets):
Stephen Harper: +21 (+26)
Jack Layton: -7 (-17)
Gilles Duceppe: 0 (-5)
Paul Martin: -20 (-16)
Here are the numbers on trust (percentage-point change from Nov. 24-27 pre-election poll in brackets):
Stephen Harper: 32 per cent (+5)
Paul Martin: 25 per cent (-8)
Jack Layton: 17 per cent (-3)
Gilles Duceppe: 6 per cent (-3)
None/other: 13 per cent (+5)
DK/NA/Ref: 7 per cent (+3)
Stunningly, Quebec respondents now trust Harper (27 per cent) as much as they do Duceppe (26 per cent). These results do not include any reaction to Tuesday's French-language debate.
When it comes to overall impressions, here are the ratings in percentage points (percentage-point change from Dec. 18-20):
Gilles Duceppe: +50 (unchanged)
Jack Layton: +30 (+8)
Stephen Harper: +10 (+20)
Paul Martin: -24 (-22)
Harper now has a net favourable rating in Quebec of +6. In comparison, Martin is -60. To make things worse for Martin, three per cent of Quebec respondents look on him very favourably, while 46 per cent look on him very unfavourably.
"That's like, 'we don't even want to know you'," Tim Woolstencroft of the Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Wednesday.
Woolstencroft said those numbers have him thinking the Liberals' strategy at this point is to "rebuild the bridge" between the public and that which they previously found dislikeable or scary about Harper.
He wants to see whether the new attack ads unleashed Tuesday will have an impact on blunting Tory momentum and popularity.
Popularity, momentum numbers
Here is how national support for parties is allocated (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3, when the Grits and Tories were tied):
Conservatives: 39 per cent (+7)
Liberals: 28 per cent (-4)
NDP: 16 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (-1)
Greens: 5 per cent (-1)
For the rest of Canada outside Quebec, the Tories hold a 43-31 lead over the Liberals.
In terms of momentum, Woolstencroft said the Tories may have stopped growing, but with 64 per cent of respondents rating them as having the most momentum, compared to 12 per cent for the Liberals, they have lots of breathing room.
In Quebec, the Tories continue to rise, while the Liberals fall and the Bloc hovers around the 50 per cent mark (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3 in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 50 per cent (-2)
Conservatives: 23 per cent (+10)
Liberals: 16 per cent (-10)
NDP: 7 per cent (+2)
Greens: 4 per cent (unchanged)
The Conservatives have seen a four-point drop in support in Ontario in the last few days. Here are the current numbers (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3 in brackets):
Liberals: 37 per cent (unchanged)
Conservatives: 36 per cent (+2)
NDP: 19 per cent (-2)
Greens: 8 per cent (unchanged)
Besides Quebec, B.C. is also contributing strongly to the Conservatives' overall growth in popularity (percentage-point change from polling conducted Dec. 30-31, Jan. 3 in brackets):
Conservatives: 47 per cent (+12)
Liberals: 26 per cent (-8)
NDP: 24 per cent (-1)
Greens: 3 per cent (-3)
The Tories remain overwhelmingly dominant on the Prairies.
