Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Talk

Reverend Blair

Council Member
Apr 3, 2004
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RE: Canada's Oil Reserves

Is it accurate? How far in the future does it predict? Does it take droughts in the year 2150 into account? Hurricanes in 2212? What price does it put on a human life? An extinct species?
 

Reverend Blair

Council Member
Apr 3, 2004
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Winnipeg
Re: Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Ta

Malthusians have been around forever.

So what's a human life worth? What's a species being forced into extinction worth? If you take into account all of the environmental factors (and I'll go easy on you and skip the likely wars that will start because of over-consumption etc) what were the real costs of the USA's emissions this year.
 

Toro

Senate Member
May 24, 2005
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Re: Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Ta

Reverend Blair said:
So what's a human life worth? What's a species being forced into extinction worth? If you take into account all of the environmental factors (and I'll go easy on you and skip the likely wars that will start because of over-consumption etc) what were the real costs of the USA's emissions this year.

Well, that's a good question Rev. I have read what the costs are but I cannot remember the number.

I don't argue that economics has all the answers because it doesn't. There are many things of value beyond tangible wealth. The environment is one of those. If society puts a value on an intangible, I have no problem with government restricting an action, i.e. pollution. One of the problems of markets is that all participants do not have all relevant information to make decisions. That's called assymetrical information. Government definitely has a role in providing the information to all. Then if people still want to do dumb things - i.e. smoke - then its up to them.

The question is whether or not we truly understand the issue. Global warming is one of them. I tend - that's tend - to believe in the global warming thesis. But I also know that the models used to predict global warming are somewhat flawed, and that many of the same people who are yelling about global warming were yelling about a new ice age 30 years ago. Its inexact. Having said that, I think its best we err on the side of caution. But the question is what do we do about it? What are the true costs? This is something that tends to get brushed over by the environmentalists. After all, its not them who are going to lose there jobs.

Here's a question for you. Who is the biggest spender on solar energy technology research?
 

I think not

Hall of Fame Member
Apr 12, 2005
10,506
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The Evil Empire
Re: Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Ta

Toro said:
I think not said:
British Petroleum?

And the winner is...

ITN!

And maybe Said too.

YAY!
 

Reverend Blair

Council Member
Apr 3, 2004
1,238
1
38
Winnipeg
RE: Canada's Oil Reserves

First of all, the ice age thing is a myth. Please don't perpetuate it. It was a minor scientific theory full of ifs and buts, a tiny and controversial segment of the science related to global dimming (which is very real btw), and the media got a hold of it and blew it out of all proportion. Now every global warming denier on the planet spouts off about the ice age not happening like it was a major stand-alone theory that every scientist on the planet endorsed.

Now that we have that cleared up...How come, if you and others on the right insist that the only true measure of success is the economy, and you do, do you not factor in all of the other parts of existence on this planet into that?

If the models are flawed, then take the worst case scenario and adjust as the models get better and the situation is better known. How come the environmental index isn't part of the nightly business report? How come there's no social index in the investment magazines?

You know as well as I do that economics is not anything close to an exact discipline. To suggest that it is a science is a bad joke. You also know that analysts regularly refer to intangibles like "consumer confidence" and the "mood of investors". So why aren't other things, which are far more measurable and tangible even if they aren't absolutes, figured in?

You know the answer to that too, I suspect. The truth is that those numbers, even if a relatively optimistic view is taken, show that our current way of doing things is a sham. It is unsustainable and that unsustainability makes it dangerous. The result is that it isn't spoken about by those on the right and when anybody on the left brings it up every effort is made to write us off as cranks.

You've tried that yourself with your claims that the left knows nothing about economics and your attempts to denigrate Linda McQuaig and others. The truth is that you are being asked questions that you don't even want to consider the answer to.
 

Toro

Senate Member
May 24, 2005
5,468
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Florida, Hurricane Central
Re: RE: Canada's Oil Reserves

Reverend Blair said:
Now that we have that cleared up...How come, if you and others on the right insist that the only true measure of success is the economy, and you do, do you not factor in all of the other parts of existence on this planet into that?

But we don't believe its the only factor. What we know though is that human progress has occurred primarily through economic progress, i.e. societies getting richer. When societies get richer, societies can focus more on intangibles and other quality of life issues. If you are starving, you don't care if there's pollution above you or not. It is through the profit motive that innovations and new technologies germinate, of which most are beneficial to mankind and make out existence easier, and that includes affording social programs. Its no coincidence that the greatest number of medical compounds are discovered in the country where the innovators are able to make the most money - the US. Comfort for the masses is a relatively recent phenomenom. My wife's great-grandparents moved from the Ukraine to Saskatchewan. They lived their first Saskatchewan winter in a hole in the ground. Literally. We don't want to go back to that.

Reverend Blair said:
If the models are flawed, then take the worst case scenario and adjust as the models get better and the situation is better known. How come the environmental index isn't part of the nightly business report? How come there's no social index in the investment magazines?

That's a fair point. I certainly think there's more to life than the GDP figure. There have been a number of quality of life indices constructed, including the UN one which used to have Canada first. I have no problem with that. But the reason why its not on the business report is because it doesn't involve business. I don't expect to find out what the TSE 300 did on Greenpeace's website either.

Reverend Blair said:
You know as well as I do that economics is not anything close to an exact discipline. To suggest that it is a science is a bad joke. You also know that analysts regularly refer to intangibles like "consumer confidence" and the "mood of investors". So why aren't other things, which are far more measurable and tangible even if they aren't absolutes, figured in?

Oh but it is science. Its not a physical science for sure, but the mathematics are complex and often borrowed from the physical sciences. The problem with any social science is its difficult to construct a test and a control group. You can't say, "Okay, we're going to collapse this country's economy here and not this country's economy and see what happens." But what you can do is understand economic history and model the data from history. That doesn't mean its exact because its not, and never will be because you are dealing with human behavior. But its close. I track the daily economic figures relative to forecasts and the forecasts are never exact but they are usually pretty close. Most of the big, big questions in economics are essentially answered. Now we're dealing with more technical issues.

Reverend Blair said:
You know the answer to that too, I suspect. The truth is that those numbers, even if a relatively optimistic view is taken, show that our current way of doing things is a sham. It is unsustainable and that unsustainability makes it dangerous. The result is that it isn't spoken about by those on the right and when anybody on the left brings it up every effort is made to write us off as cranks.

Sustainability is a matter of opinion. A good example is this debate about oil. Are we going to run out of oil? Maybe. But its not like one day we'll wake up and all the oil will be gone. That won't happen. What will happen is the price will rise over time. It will go to $100, then $300 then $500 a barrel. At some point, demand will fall and/or new technologies will occur to either find a substitute for oil or find alternative forms of consumption less linked to oil. Or economic growth will slow. I'm a big, big believer in human ingenuity. Given the right incentives, mankind will find alternative energy sources. People forget that oil didn't even exist as an energy source 130 years ago, and the global economy was growing fast for a century beforehand.

Reverend Blair said:
You've tried that yourself with your claims that the left knows nothing about economics and your attempts to denigrate Linda McQuaig and others. The truth is that you are being asked questions that you don't even want to consider the answer to.

This whole debate started when you referenced the NAFTA agreement and energy. I've corresponded with Ms. McQuaig. She's a classy woman. But she is no expert on NAFTA and energy. (I also know some of the people whom she quotes in her Crude book, but that's another topic.)

I said that most of the Left does not understand economics. At the heart of economics are markets. Most of the Left does not trust markets, yet markets are the core of wealth creation. The philosophy of "corporations are evil" amongst some on the Left is at the very root of the problem for the Left. That doesn't mean corporations should do anything they want, but the Left must understand that markets and corporations are the repositories of the wealth created during the richest time in the history of the planet. What the Left should be doing is thinking of ways to be progressive while allowing markets and corporations to prosper as opposed to being hostile to those institutions. This is not something new. It actually comes from a few voices on the Left. There is (was? I don't know if he's still alive) a man named Richards, whose first name I can't remember, who was in the Blakeney government and went on to be a prof at Simon Fraser. He was making this argument back in the 1980s.
 

Jay

Executive Branch Member
Jan 7, 2005
8,366
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Re: Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Ta

Reverend Blair said:
The people getting rich off the taxpayers backs are the corporations, Jay.

Like the corporations the teachers pension fund owns...taxpayers money.

Here are a few links...

The first link is in the North Bay region…certainly isn’t a wealthy place. Top civil servant there... over 200K…hard to get poor on a salary like that…


http://www.almaguinnews.com/Articles2004/14_2_4_07_04.htm


You’ll like this one.

http://web2.uwindsor.ca/flipside/vol3/may00/00my24a.htm



http://www.enseignerenontario.ca/en/salary.htm


Look at the salaries of teachers…more than 70K after 10 years…and they just got another raise. Get two teachers in a house hold 140K…straight tax payers money. A few years of that…the perks…you suddenly have lots, and lots of money…some would call you rich, and its not a corporation.

There are doctors who make well over 350K...

Lots of people are soaking the taxpayer of Ontario.
 

Reverend Blair

Council Member
Apr 3, 2004
1,238
1
38
Winnipeg
Re: Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Ta

But we don't believe its the only factor.

And yet current right-wing politics, including those of your president and of that woman in your avatar, insist that the markets should be allowed to dictate other policy. You insist on that yourself, including in the post that I'm responding to.

What we know though is that human progress has occurred primarily through economic progress, i.e. societies getting richer. When societies get richer, societies can focus more on intangibles and other quality of life issues. If you are starving, you don't care if there's pollution above you or not.

Yet your policies push people into poverty and starvation, creating the very conditions where people do not care if there's pollution. Corporations then resist attempts to limit they create by saying that people are starving. It's an ugly circle that exists to create wealth not for the poor, but for the already rich.

It is through the profit motive that innovations and new technologies germinate, of which most are beneficial to mankind and make out existence easier, and that includes affording social programs.

So why haven't you created and developed technologies for environmental sustainability? Don't even try to say that you have. Corporations have been dragging their feet and fighting non-polluting technologies every step of the way. They still are.

My wife's great-grandparents moved from the Ukraine to Saskatchewan. They lived their first Saskatchewan winter in a hole in the ground. Literally. We don't want to go back to that.

That's not an uncommon story at all. However, nobody is suggesting that we go back to that. The corporate refusal to change the way they operate may push us back into it, the economic theories that insist on more and more growth may reduce us to that level, but it isn't the left that controls those things, it is the right.

That's a fair point. I certainly think there's more to life than the GDP figure. There have been a number of quality of life indices constructed, including the UN one which used to have Canada first. I have no problem with that. But the reason why its not on the business report is because it doesn't involve business. I don't expect to find out what the TSE 300 did on Greenpeace's website either.

Greenpeace and other environmental groups actually pay a lot of attention to business. It isn't always negative either. Quality of life and the environment should very much involve business. That you who believe that corporations are the most important thing haven't figured that out yet, then there is something very wrong with corporate culture.

Oh but it is science. Its not a physical science for sure, but the mathematics are complex and often borrowed from the physical sciences. The problem with any social science is its difficult to construct a test and a control group. You can't say, "Okay, we're going to collapse this country's economy here and not this country's economy and see what happens." But what you can do is understand economic history and model the data from history. That doesn't mean its exact because its not, and never will be because you are dealing with human behavior. But its close. I track the daily economic figures relative to forecasts and the forecasts are never exact but they are usually pretty close. Most of the big, big questions in economics are essentially answered. Now we're dealing with more technical issues.

If it is a science, then you have to discard or revise your theories when they fail. Since the theory that free markets solve problems have been shown to be devastatingly wrong, causing the debt crisis, environmental disaster, unbalanced distribution of wealth, and even economic collapse, you should be discarding the theories. Since you have not done that you are either being unscientific or disingenuous about what the conclusion of the theory really is.

Sustainability is a matter of opinion. A good example is this debate about oil. Are we going to run out of oil? Maybe. But its not like one day we'll wake up and all the oil will be gone. That won't happen. What will happen is the price will rise over time. It will go to $100, then $300 then $500 a barrel. At some point, demand will fall and/or new technologies will occur to either find a substitute for oil or find alternative forms of consumption less linked to oil. Or economic growth will slow. I'm a big, big believer in human ingenuity. Given the right incentives, mankind will find alternative energy sources. People forget that oil didn't even exist as an energy source 130 years ago, and the global economy was growing fast for a century beforehand.

Sustainability is not a matter of opinion. Since you use oil as an example....Consider the cost the problems caused in the Middle East since WWI. Consider the environmental problems caused. Consider the health problems. Consider the social impacts. Consider the economic problems that have spun off from those things. Consider one more thing while you are at it...the world economy is dependent on oil so to change anything we have to revise the entire world economy which makes change very difficult. You use oil as an example, but focus only on the price and availability of oil. It is a highly flawed construct that you are using.



This whole debate started when you referenced the NAFTA agreement and energy.

No, this whole debate started when you attempted to deny that NAFTA gives the US massive influence over Canadian resources.

I've corresponded with Ms. McQuaig. She's a classy woman. But she is no expert on NAFTA and energy.

She is a journalist, Toro. I realize that you think that everybody has to have the exact same education and experiences as you to be able to question your methods and your motives, but that simply isn't true. If you read McQuaig's writing, you will find that she has done her research and has her facts straight. You will also find that she is looking at things from a much wider view than simply your narrow economic constructs.

Since she, and others like her, look at things from a wider view they are arguably experts on the impacts of NAFTA and energy and exhibit much more expertise than the alleged experts in these matters.

I said that most of the Left does not understand economics. At the heart of economics are markets.

See, this is where you get it wrong. At the heart of economics are people. Real living, breathing people.

Most of the Left does not trust markets, yet markets are the core of wealth creation. The philosophy of "corporations are evil" amongst some on the Left is at the very root of the problem for the Left. That doesn't mean corporations should do anything they want, but the Left must understand that markets and corporations are the repositories of the wealth created during the richest time in the history of the planet. What the Left should be doing is thinking of ways to be progressive while allowing markets and corporations to prosper as opposed to being hostile to those institutions.

Again, you have it wrong. You show a complete lack of knowledge of the left. While we would limit corporations, we do not think they are evil. Corporations are completely amoral by nature. Because of that they should not be granted the fiction of being citizens and they need to have morality imposed on them by government.

Corporations are not repositories of wealth, they are profit making machines. They redistribute wealth, and they do so in an increasingly uneven manner with the wealth concentrating at the top and shortages occurring at the bottom. That is inequitable and unsustainable at its very heart.
 

Toro

Senate Member
May 24, 2005
5,468
109
63
Florida, Hurricane Central
Re: Canada's Oil Reserves Attract U.S., As American Media Ta

When I say that the Left doesn't understand economics, this is what I mean.

Reverend Blair said:
Yet your policies push people into poverty and starvation, creating the very conditions where people do not care if there's pollution.

Markets do not drive people into poverty, they lift people out of poverty. That is why countries like China and, to a lesser extent, India, following the examples throughout the rest of Southeast Asia, are throwing off the shackles of government restrictions and instead allowing people to invest and create jobs and turn a profit. Markets do the exact opposite of what you claim.

Reverend Blair said:
And yet current right-wing politics, including those of your president and of that woman in your avatar, insist that the markets should be allowed to dictate other policy. You insist on that yourself, including in the post that I'm responding to.

No, what they say is that if government is going to intervene, there has to be a very good reason. The price system creates the most wealth for the most people most of the time. To assume that we have enough wealth is to assume that there are no more poor people, that there are no more diseases to cure, etc.

The unemployment rate in the nation the lady in my avatar ruled is half that of France and Germany, the social models of which the Left would like to replicate in Canada. There is no better social policy than a job.

Reverend Blair said:
So why haven't you created and developed technologies for environmental sustainability?

This is to assume that we are at the end of history. You said earlier that if there was going to be environmentally-friendly technologies, it already would have been invented. That's like saying if there's going to be a cure for cancer, it would have already been discovered. Energy companies spend tens of millions of dollars a year on environmentally-friendly technologies. The largest spender on solar energy technology is BP.

Reverend Blair said:
If it is a science, then you have to discard or revise your theories when they fail.

Because they don't work. That's why there is less government involvement in the economy, or at least in the functioning of market clearing today than there was in the 1970s. We have learned that government trying to dictate the economy is generally a failure. The failure has been on the government intervention in the economy. And like I said,

toro said:
The problem with any social science is its difficult to construct a test and a control group. You can't say, "Okay, we're going to collapse this country's economy here and not this country's economy and see what happens." But what you can do is understand economic history and model the data from history.

Reverend Blair said:
Since the theory that free markets solve problems have been shown to be devastatingly wrong, causing the debt crisis, environmental disaster, unbalanced distribution of wealth, and even economic collapse, you should be discarding the theories. Since you have not done that you are either being unscientific or disingenuous about what the conclusion of the theory really is.

This was the thinking that permeated on the Left in the 1960s and 1970s. The answers provided by the Left lead to unemployment and inflation. Debt crisis? Social spending pushed New Zealand to the wall and gave Canada a debt/GDP ratio of 100% in the 1990s - higher than America ever reached. Government spending on infrastructure in Japan has lead to a debt/GDP ratio of 150%. That ain't because of the market. Environmental crisis? The worst environmental disasters occurred in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. Unbalanced distribution of wealth? I'd rather have that then no wealth creation. Its no coincidence that the US and the UK have grown faster than Western Europe. Economic collapse? Where? Besides, looking through such an ideological spectrum fails to understand that there is a role for government in modern economies, particularly when it comes to monetary policy. Its not that simple.

Reverend Blair said:
Sustainability is not a matter of opinion. Since you use oil as an example....Consider the cost the problems caused in the Middle East since WWI. Consider the environmental problems caused. Consider the health problems. Consider the social impacts. Consider the economic problems that have spun off from those things.

Consider all the good things. In 1900, the country with the longest life span was Sweden at 56 years of age. Today, even most of the poorest countries in the world have a life span as long. Life spans are longer, infant mortality rates are lower, life is easier, people are not as susceptible to disease, technology has made our lives so much easier, etc. This has occurred because of progress, in particular economic progress.

Reverend Blair said:
Consider one more thing while you are at it...the world economy is dependent on oil so to change anything we have to revise the entire world economy which makes change very difficult. You use oil as an example, but focus only on the price and availability of oil. It is a highly flawed construct that you are using.

No, the price and availability is key to it all. If the price is higher, more research will be channelled into other forms of energy. That's how markets work. If other forms of energy are not discovered in time, then growth will slow. But that can't hide the fact that the 20th century saw tremendous economic progress using oil as an energy source. That wealth and knowledge accrued won't disappear.

Reverend Blair said:
No, this whole debate started when you attempted to deny that NAFTA gives the US massive influence over Canadian resources.

No Rev. Go back and read what has been posted. You said that Canada cannot cut back exports to the US even if our consumption falls because of NAFTA. I refuted that.

Reverend Blair said:
She is a journalist, Toro. ...If you read McQuaig's writing,

She has her right to her opinion but she is not an authority on trade or energy matters. Just because she's a journalist does not make her so.

Reverend Blair said:
See, this is where you get it wrong. At the heart of economics are people. Real living, breathing people.

At the heart of economics are people. Real living, breathing people buying and selling, investing and saving. In other words, a market. People are the market. Real living, breathing people. Rocks and trees aren't transacting goods and services. People are.

Reverend Blair said:
Again, you have it wrong. You show a complete lack of knowledge of the left. While we would limit corporations, we do not think they are evil. Corporations are completely amoral by nature.

In my career, I have looked at over a thousand corporations. Its what I do for a living. The idea that corporations by definition are amoral is flat out wrong. Corporations are entities run by people. And like all people everywhere, some are ammoral, some are immoral, but most are moral. The morality of a corporation, just like the morality of a government or a union or an NGO, are as moral as the people involved. Most people and corporations are moral. Some are not. Just like most people are moral but some are not.

Reverend Blair said:
Corporations are not repositories of wealth, they are profit making machines.

This, again, demonstrates that the Left does not understand economics. Economic wealth is a function of profits. Unless an economy is sitting on a wealth of natural resources, such as Dubai, Qatar and the other Gulf states, the health of an economy is highly dependent on the profitability of an economy.