Canada Housing Market Is 63% Overvalued: Deutsche Bank

JLM

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 27, 2008
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agreed


it depends upon your region.. but rule of thumb is 10 to 15 years should double your investment

I wish I had bought earlier...can't say I wasn't told

Back in the old days, there used to be a magic number, I think it may have been 72- divide that by your interest rate to give you the number of years to double your investment, so an investment at 8% should double in 9 years. Not sure if that works anymore. Liars can figure! The finance people have too many tricks up their sleeve. Bastards just tried to screw me out of $226 on my mortgage renewal- good thing it was $226 that didn't show up on the paper I signed. I feel very sorry for people who can't (won't) do the math.
 

Kreskin

Doctor of Thinkology
Feb 23, 2006
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I know a guy who would target property valuation based on a simple formula: rent x 15 years = price. He didn't care much about anything else, if he could cap it at 15 years it was worth buying. Now he has about 25 houses all over Western Canada.

Like anything else the Real estate will usually come back to valautions based on what income can be derived.
 

B00Mer

Make Canada Great Again
Sep 6, 2008
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Sal

Hall of Fame Member
Sep 29, 2007
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Unless the industry your area depends on goes down the tubes.
ours already did....haven't been jobs in Ontario in forEVER.... first our manufacturing tubed and then our high tech folded...we've been hit doubly hard...didn't change anything in the housing market except things have remained stable...everyone predicted this and predicted that...there are so many variables ... seasoned economists can't predict it

what has changed in our area is who owns what...used to be the million dollar plus homes were owned by affluent 40ish and up people...our tech industry changed that dynamic...they became interspersed with 20 something year olds and I don't mean still living with mum and dad I mean they were owners... now...those guys have moved out again or have no mortgages if they were smart and despite the industry fold they are set

We are always behind the USA.. they had their housing bust, we will have ours.. 2015/2016.

Wait till this spring. :)

disagree...the reason theirs went bust was because of their lending policies set by their banks here in Canada to qualify for a mortgage is very different than theirs WAS...they've changed too now

Of course, what demand is there for a home in Winnipeg or Regina, vs Calgary or Vancouver..

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that I don't know but what I do know is that everything changes and those changes are not predictable with certainty but they do follow a set of rules and our rules in Canada are very different region to region

That is putting it very mildly. It wasn't that long ago you could own a 'palace' for $10,000.:)
here in Ontario you haven't been able to own a place for ten grand for decades

Material, labor, overhead and a reasonable profit are what something is worth. The insatiable appetites of the sellers is what determines the cost of something. Worth and cost are two different things.

no it doesn't matter what price you set...it's what the market will bear

you can ask anything you want...it's what people will pay...
 

Angstrom

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May 8, 2011
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And when all the baby boomers sell to move into old age group homes it will be to much at the same time, and so houses value will drop.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
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Well in Calgary and Airdrie, within the last 5 years homes have doubled in price. It ridiculous and over priced.

You're dreaming.

Other than a few select examples of buying a condo a few years before it's completion, housing prices have risen a small amount (read less than 10% combined) in the last 5 years

63% overpriced is about right..

DB says 63% and the Canadian authorities say 30%... The market determines the amount moreso than an analyst that compares affordability metrics and forgets to account for these people using the asset as a long-term retirement vehicle

The banks always win.

That's why it makes sense to act as the bank
 

JamesBondo

House Member
Mar 3, 2012
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If you are waiting for me to sell for less than I paid, you might as well start digging that snow hut in the dark.