I am a volunteer for the PQ and I am very pleased at the tone of this current discussion; very different from many other forums.
Here's what I assume will be voted at the next congress of the PQ which is in june. As soon as the PQ enters power in 2007-2008, he corrects various electoral laws that have been violated by the federal government in the last referendum. It has been proven that in the 1995 referendum, the NO side had 10 times the money of the YES side and that they gave citizenship to tens of thousands of immigrants in quebec, before the time, in order for them to vote no in the referendum. This has been said by many liberal organizers.
After these corrections, the PQ will make an initial constitution of Quebec with some fondamental laws. After that, it will launch a referendum on the accession of Quebec to independence. There will be a vote in the june congress to forget about the "special deal with Canada" for something with a more "international sense". I am for that. I, like most of you, believe that the question should be clear and that it should be made clear in the heads of the population of Quebec that a YES means real independance; we don't vote in further federal elections, we sign our own international treaties, etc... If the people don't want that, then we should not play with the words to get their vote. However, I also think that a negociation would be good. Many services could be kept in common; and we would pay for these services. Like some federal governemental societies like Post Canada. Of course Canadian should agree with that, if they don't we create our own. I am sure that both Quebec and Canada would win by keeping some services in common.
Once the referendum passes, there will be a series of breaking actions towards the federal. (like rapatriation of all taxes, creation of our external affairs ministry, etc...)
It is important to know that for the 18 years the PQ has been in power, even if there wasn't any referendum in sight, they were working for making that transition period easier. They created what we call "l'état québécois". We have way more ministeries that any other provinces, we have our own governmental financial societies, our own heavily funded arts councils, etc... Quebec is already somewhat "a sleeping state". In 1980, Quebec wasn't ready for becoming a country. Now, it is. And today, any country, has small has it may be, can prosper as long as they are part of a large market. And in America, there is no problem about that.
Lastly, there will be a second referendum, after the "tension periods" where there will be the ratification of the first constitution of Quebec. This constitution will have been developped in different forums engaging different people from all regions. It will be the first constitution, this very important document which dictate how we live together as a nation, which will not have been imposed to us by the English Crown.
There's one thing to know about Quebequers it that there are very nationalists, a vast majority of us here don't feel canadian. There is about 40% here who will vote independance no matter what. An additionnal 15-20% percent can be convinced in a referendum period. But these pourcentages could go way higher if they feel that their survivances as a culture is in danger. Like if the supreme court decided one day to make Bill 101 illegal, then Quebec would be out in no time.
To conclude, in my eyes, there is only one possible avenue for Canada as a whole; and this would be an interesting deal for Quebec as for the west. Massive decentralisation. We are a federation right now who wishes to become an unitarian state. If it became again a confederation with various states who take care of their own business but in some issues decide to join power in order to be more efficient. No perequation, no double ministries, no double taxation. Everything is done at the province level.
But this won't happen in a century because canadians "feel" canadian.