It wouldn't take a genius to realize what a dumb statement that is. Where do you think all the rig workers live when not actually on the rigs?
Beware of statisics, they can be very misleading
- Thread starter JLM
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It wouldn't take a genius to realize what a dumb statement that is. Where do you think all the rig workers live when not actually on the rigs?
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Most people who deride the use of statistics will at one time or another bring up this quote, but most will not know that the original use of this quote had more meaning than just those who use statistics to strengthen a weak argument. It was also meant to convey that people disparage statistics which don't support their position.
Ironic.
Most people who deride the use of statistics will at one time or another bring up this quote, but most will not know that the original use of this quote had more meaning than just those who use statistics to strengthen a weak argument. It was also meant to convey that people disparage statistics which don't support their position.
Ironic.
Your son has not met 'Newfies' working rigs, in the context of this conversation. He has met Albertans formerly from Newfoundland. Living in Alberta, paying taxes to Alberta. Very few work here and live back in Newfoundland. The unemployment rate of Newfoundland doesn't mean that Albertans start shrugging off troubles in their own back yard, just because you don't like the way a news report presented the stats.
Her point is that saying the change in unemployment is X% is bull**** because Newfies are working on oil rigs is a non sequitur, ie. conclusion does not follow from the supporting assertion.
There's probably some Philipinos working there too. Maybe they have seniority?
I have a cousin who is a consultant in Calgary, and is currently looking for work, with not much luck. She tells me the job market sucks. She works in Human resources...
Point is, probably anyone who knows people in Calgary can name friends or family that have a job, and that are looking for work. This is the whole point of statistics. We need some better way to gauge the labour market, better than anecdotal evidence.
Actually, I read an article recently (maybe in Readers Digest) about that very subject, there are lots of workers in Alberta who in fact do live in Nfld. they fly out for 30 days or so and then fly back for 30 days and live with their families in Nfld. while not working, not all in the patch, some at other jobs. They are in fact Nfld. residents, own homes there, their kids attend school there, they are on Nfld. medical etc. etc.
They don't. I never brought up that aspect of the debate. You said that Albertans weren't competing against Halgonians for jobs. I just pointed out that Newfies were indeed working in Alberta and I think if they weren't there unemployed Albertans could fill those jobs. However these are all moot points. All I've ever asserted was that statistics are unreliable and all this just goes to bear that out.
Aha, an easy question to anwswer. A year ago the media was reporting "virtually zero" unemployment in Alberta and Alberta had to import workers from other places. As stated in my original post, 300% added to zero doesn't make sense. The correct way to report this would be to say X number of people are unemployed in Alberta. I've never disagreed with your assertion that thousands of workers are currently unemployed in Alberta, so don't understand what all the commotion is about.
Many Newfies who are working in Alberta have actually moved there. There are some who work for terms and then fly home, and back and forth, but I wouldn't think they are a significant portion of the employees in Calgary or Edmonton who are losing jobs. You mentioned oil and gas rig workers from Newfoundland. Well that sector (not just rig jobs) is approximately ten percent of the total number of jobs in all of Alberta. Those are the types of jobs where people would be moving back and forth, and they probably would not be living in Edmonton or Calgary, because that's not where the rig jobs are.
So it's a meaningless comparison to the subject of Calgary and Edmonton employment numbers...which is the subject of this thread I believe.
They aren't unreliable. The percent change comes from the raw numbers that you said you would report. How can that be unreliable then, unless the raw numbers are actually unreliable? In which case, it's not the statistics that are the problem, but the public service collation of the job data.
If the number of unemployed is up 300%, then that's notable. Especially given that it is part of a marked trend in the regions mentioned, and larger than any other change across Canada.
What is so hard to accept about that? If the economic workhorses are where the greatest job losses are occurring, that has impacts across the entire economy...
Okay I stand corrected on that. A year ago my son was working steadily in the patch near Red Deer, but after that things dried up. He just went back to R.D. last week, supposedly about 100 holes to test. He's pretty much had enough after 20 odd years and has been roofing during the slack periods, but now roofing has dried up for the season here. So I guess he's hoping for one more winter in the patch and then retire from it.
Alright. I'll re-word it slightly. Stats are not crap when they are not altered. Too often they are altered to suit conditions and that's why they are often an un-reliable source of true information. Companies pay for altered stats. It makes them look better than they really are.
I know of a couple of people here in town that hoped to work in oil for the winter but it didn't happen for them. In fact, for one of them, this is year two. Blows me away when I read in yesterday's news that the Royal Bank says that the rise in the cost of housing is slowing buyers. I don't understand the "rise" at this time. They did say in BC but with our mounting Olympic debt, I don't understand it.8O