Recent polling by
Strength in Numbers and Verasight paints a dismal picture for Donald Trump and the GOP as they head into the midterms. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to the mid-to-low 30s, driven mostly by plummeting approval with Republicans. In years past, Trump’s approval ratings with Republicans hovered in the high 80s or low 90s. Today, it stands at closer to 70 percent.
These numbers are driven by public anger at the state of the
economy, the increasing cost of living, and Trump’s poor leadership. A plurality of voters says that this midterm election is a
referendum on Trump (
who isn’t on the ballot), with independents saying this the most. As a result, the generic congressional ballot favors Democrats by
12 points among registered voters in one poll, and by
11 points among likely voters in another.
Polling shows the president in free fall. Unfortunately, a number of his most reactionary policies still have disturbing levels of support.
apple.news
Rep. Jim Himes, likely chair of the House Intelligence Committee if the Democrats take control of the House with the upcoming midterm elections, talks with Jen Psaki about how Democrats intend to investigate Trump administration corruption like pay-to-play deals if they are able to take control...
apple.news
September 19, 2026, 6:00 AM ET President Donald Trump looks at his phone during a roundtable at the State Dining Room of the White House June 18, 2020. President Donald Trump has made more securities trades since returning to office than every member of Congress combined. According to a...
apple.news
With control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate at stake, Democrats begin October with a surprisingly rosy outlook as more congressional seats are seen as in play.Republicans, meanwhile, appear to be in damage control, pouring millions of dollars into races once seen as secure victories while injecting more funding into a handful of marquee showdowns.
Political trackers have long projected Democrats will take control of the US House of Representatives in the November 3 vote.
Winning a majority in the 435-member chamber from Republicans would give the party renewed legislative power to assert leverage over Trump, while launching investigations into his administration’s dealings. Top Democrats have already signalled that probes into Trump’s family
business dealings would be top priorities.
Democrats enter final stretch with surprisingly positive outlook as Republican money seeks to stem damage.
apple.news
With 30 days left to go, “there’s much more drama in the Senate than the House races” once considered a pipe dream for Democrats, who need a net gain of at least four seats to win a slim majority, the 100-member chamber has moved within a more comfortable striking distance. Unlike in the House, where every seat is up for re-election, only 35 Senate seats are up for grabs in this cycle, creating a far narrower pathway to control.
Donald Trump publicly called Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton "a pain in the ass" during a speech at a manufacturing plant in Denton, Texas. Trump's jab followed leaked audio of Paxton telling donors that the recent Republican convention headlined by Trump negatively impacted GOP poll numbers.
apple.news
In 2024, Mr. Trump did well among Hispanic voters, but they’ve soured on him. That will cost Republicans, especially in Texas and Florida. Plus, there’s the usual midterm swing against the president’s party, the unpopular Iran war, gas prices, some dreadful Republican candidates chosen by primary voters (see Texas) and Mr. Trump’s unpopularity, especially on key issues such as affordability. In some states, such as Texas, gerrymanders have spread Republican voters too thinly to survive a big blue wave – another Trump-led campaign strategy that may backfire.
In 2016 and 2024, non-MAGA Republicans stuck with their party and gave Mr. Trump his victories. If the election were held today, Republicans are at about 43 per cent on the
“generic ballot,” indicating that many will vote Republican again. Still, non-MAGA Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents are a big portion of the “don’t knows” regarding their 2026 choice. Very few will vote Democrat, and some will stay home or vote for a third party, but there are still unknowns and undecideds.
Polls cannot capture the fact that elections activate partisanship. The most powerful forces in American politics are partisanship (attachment to your party) and negative partisanship (animosity toward the opposition). It’s hard to overstate how little the actual candidates matter to Americans’ voting choices. The closer election day gets, the more voters’ partisan identities kick in and override candidate preferences or dissatisfaction with the president. Republican leaders are counting on partisanship kicking in again this year, but polls won’t capture it.
It’s hard to overstate how little the actual candidates matter to Americans’ voting choices
apple.news
Political analysts and institutional frameworks suggest that a midterm loss for the Republican party would significantly constrain President Trump's legislative agenda, though his
use of executive power would likely trigger intense court battles. A loss of the governing trifecta would establish a divided government, completely shifting the balance of power in Washington.
Trump has given public indications about how he would approach a potential loss. During interviews, he stated that he would act as a "
blocker" to
veto Democratic legislation for the final two years of his term.
However, historically and behaviorally, a president facing a hostile Congress often relies heavily on
executive orders, national emergency declarations, and administrative rule-making to bypass the legislature. Because these unilateral actions frequently test the constitutional limits of executive authority,
they inevitably lead to major legal challenges.
and participants in business deals brokered by Trump family members 
are expected to be among the first targets 
of investigations if Democrats take control of the House or Senate in November's midterm elections, multiple Capitol Hill staffers, lawmakers and attorneys told Reuters in recent days.
”
