Luck and crew caught lying once again. #TrumpAlwaysLies
#TrumpWon the debate? Legitimate polls show otherwise
Online 'polls' pegged Donald Trump as the presidential debate winner, but scientific polls did not
The hashtag #TrumpWon was trending on Twitter Tuesday. Partially boosted by sarcasm, it was fuelled primarily by Donald Trump, who was quick to claim he won Monday's debate by citing a slew of online polls that pegged him as the winner.
But there's a problem. None of the polls Trump has pointed to are actually legitimate polls. Instead, all of the scientific, real polls published so far have shown him to be the loser of the debate by significant margins.
In the world of public opinion research, the "online polls" that litter news websites are a plague. Whereas real surveys try to assemble representative samples of the population, these online polls are more of a gimmick or a game. Anyone can answer them. Often people can answer them multiple times. They can invite their friends, who likely think just like them, to answer the online polls on social media.
And then they can point to these completely unrepresentative and meaningless results as if they signal something important.
At their very best, these online polls are only a sample of a given website's audience — at least those who see the online poll while it is posted and are interested enough to participate. It is no coincidence that two of the online polls Trump has quoted come from conservative websites like Drudge and Breitbart (the latter run by Trump's campaign CEO).
These online polls are not the same as the legitimate surveys conducted by pollsters that sample from a demographically representative internet panel. And they are certainly not the same as the legitimate surveys that randomly sample from the general population via telephone.
These legitimate polls also differ in their results.
Four scientific polls published since the debate using legitimate surveying methods have shown that debate-watchers saw Hillary Clinton as the better performer and the winner of Monday's debate:
A CNN/ORC poll of 521 debate-watchers taken the night of the debate found that 62 per cent thought Clinton had done the best job, compared to 27 per cent for Trump.
A PublicPolicyPolling survey of 1,002 debate-watchers also taken the night of the debate showed 51 per cent of viewers thought Clinton had won, while 40 per cent gave the nod to Trump.
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll of 1,253 likely voters on Sept. 26 and 27 found that 49 per cent thought Clinton had won, while 26 per cent thought Trump did.
A YouGov poll of 1,145 Americans conducted on Sept. 26 and 27 found that 57 per cent of those who viewed the debate thought Clinton won, against 30 per cent for Trump.
#TrumpWon the debate? Legitimate polls show otherwise - Politics - CBC News
#TrumpWon the debate? Legitimate polls show otherwise
Online 'polls' pegged Donald Trump as the presidential debate winner, but scientific polls did not
The hashtag #TrumpWon was trending on Twitter Tuesday. Partially boosted by sarcasm, it was fuelled primarily by Donald Trump, who was quick to claim he won Monday's debate by citing a slew of online polls that pegged him as the winner.
But there's a problem. None of the polls Trump has pointed to are actually legitimate polls. Instead, all of the scientific, real polls published so far have shown him to be the loser of the debate by significant margins.
In the world of public opinion research, the "online polls" that litter news websites are a plague. Whereas real surveys try to assemble representative samples of the population, these online polls are more of a gimmick or a game. Anyone can answer them. Often people can answer them multiple times. They can invite their friends, who likely think just like them, to answer the online polls on social media.
And then they can point to these completely unrepresentative and meaningless results as if they signal something important.
At their very best, these online polls are only a sample of a given website's audience — at least those who see the online poll while it is posted and are interested enough to participate. It is no coincidence that two of the online polls Trump has quoted come from conservative websites like Drudge and Breitbart (the latter run by Trump's campaign CEO).
These online polls are not the same as the legitimate surveys conducted by pollsters that sample from a demographically representative internet panel. And they are certainly not the same as the legitimate surveys that randomly sample from the general population via telephone.
These legitimate polls also differ in their results.
Four scientific polls published since the debate using legitimate surveying methods have shown that debate-watchers saw Hillary Clinton as the better performer and the winner of Monday's debate:
A CNN/ORC poll of 521 debate-watchers taken the night of the debate found that 62 per cent thought Clinton had done the best job, compared to 27 per cent for Trump.
A PublicPolicyPolling survey of 1,002 debate-watchers also taken the night of the debate showed 51 per cent of viewers thought Clinton had won, while 40 per cent gave the nod to Trump.
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll of 1,253 likely voters on Sept. 26 and 27 found that 49 per cent thought Clinton had won, while 26 per cent thought Trump did.
A YouGov poll of 1,145 Americans conducted on Sept. 26 and 27 found that 57 per cent of those who viewed the debate thought Clinton won, against 30 per cent for Trump.
#TrumpWon the debate? Legitimate polls show otherwise - Politics - CBC News
