Predicting the 2012 Presidential election

[Icarus27k]

That is, the Electoral College vote. As you may know, there are 538 Electoral College votes and the first candidate to reach 270 wins. Each state is worth a certain number of EC votes, and a candidate wins those EC votes by winning the popular vote in each state.

I'll predict...

Hawaii 4 ECs - Obama
Alaska 3 ECs - Romney
California 55 ECs - Obama
Oregon 7 ECs - Obama
Washington 12 ECs - Obama
Idaho 4 ECs - Romney
Nevada 6 ECs - Obama
Utah 6 ECs - Romney
Arizona 11 ECs - Romney
Montana 3 ECs - Romney
Wyoming 3 ECs - Romney
Colorado 9 ECs - Obama
New Mexico 9 ECs - Obama
North Dakota 3 ECs - Romney
South Dakota 3 ECs - Romney
Nebraska 5 ECs - Romney
Kansas 6 ECs - Romney
Oklahoma 7 ECs - Romney
Texas 38 ECs - Romney
Minnesota 10 ECs - Obama
Iowa 6 ECs - Obama
Missouri 10 ECs - Romney
Arkansas 6 ECs - Romney
Louisiana 8 ECs - Romney
Wisconsin 10 ECs - Obama
Illinois 20 ECs - Obama
Mississippi 6 ECs - Romney
Alabama 9 ECs - Romney
Georgia 16 ECs - Romney
Florida 29 ECs - Obama
Tennessee 11 ECs - Romney
Kentucky 8 ECs - Romney
Indiana 11 ECs - Romney
Michigan 16 ECs - Obama
Ohio 18 ECs - Obama
South Carolina 9 ECs - Romney
North Carolina 15 ECs - Romney
West Virginia 5 ECs - Romney
Virginia 13 ECs - Obama
District of Columbia 3 ECs - Obama
Maryland 10 ECs - Obama
Delaware 3 ECs - Obama
Pennsylvania 20 ECs - Obama
New Jersey 14 ECs - Obama
New York 29 ECs - Obama
Connecticut 7 ECs - Obama
Rhode Island 4 ECs - Obama
Massachusetts 11 ECs - Obama
Vermont 3 ECs - Obama
New Hampshire 4 ECs - Obama
Maine 4 ECs - Obama

For a grand total of Obama 332, Romney 206.

We'll see how close I come. And I'll be sure to check back after Election Day.

 

[JLM]

That is, the Electoral College vote. As you may know, there are 538 Electoral College votes and the first candidate to reach 270 wins. Each state is worth a certain number of EC votes, and a candidate wins those EC votes by winning the popular vote in each state.

I'll predict...

Hawaii 4 ECs - Obama
Alaska 3 ECs - Romney
California 55 ECs - Obama
Oregon 7 ECs - Obama
Washington 12 ECs - Obama
Idaho 4 ECs - Romney
Nevada 6 ECs - Obama
Utah 6 ECs - Romney
Arizona 11 ECs - Romney
Montana 3 ECs - Romney
Wyoming 3 ECs - Romney
Colorado 9 ECs - Obama
New Mexico 9 ECs - Obama
North Dakota 3 ECs - Romney
South Dakota 3 ECs - Romney
Nebraska 5 ECs - Romney
Kansas 6 ECs - Romney
Oklahoma 7 ECs - Romney
Texas 38 ECs - Romney
Minnesota 10 ECs - Obama
Iowa 6 ECs - Obama
Missouri 10 ECs - Romney
Arkansas 6 ECs - Romney
Louisiana 8 ECs - Romney
Wisconsin 10 ECs - Obama
Illinois 20 ECs - Obama
Mississippi 6 ECs - Romney
Alabama 9 ECs - Romney
Georgia 16 ECs - Romney
Florida 29 ECs - Obama
Tennessee 11 ECs - Romney
Kentucky 8 ECs - Romney
Indiana 11 ECs - Romney
Michigan 16 ECs - Obama
Ohio 18 ECs - Obama
South Carolina 9 ECs - Romney
North Carolina 15 ECs - Romney
West Virginia 5 ECs - Romney
Virginia 13 ECs - Obama
District of Columbia 3 ECs - Obama
Maryland 10 ECs - Obama
Delaware 3 ECs - Obama
Pennsylvania 20 ECs - Obama
New Jersey 14 ECs - Obama
New York 29 ECs - Obama
Connecticut 7 ECs - Obama
Rhode Island 4 ECs - Obama
Massachusetts 11 ECs - Obama
Vermont 3 ECs - Obama
New Hampshire 4 ECs - Obama
Maine 4 ECs - Obama

For a grand total of Obama 332, Romney 206.

We'll see how close I come. And I'll be sure to check back after Election Day.

Looking over the list I'd say you are pretty close..........Obama for Mass. for sure, and probably the entire west coast, Romney will take a couple of the Rocky Mtn. states and Texas, Obama should take Fla.

 

[PoliticalNick]

I predict another useless shill for banks and corps will win ;-)

Check back after the day to see if .....never mind, I am right!

 

[eh1eh]

I predict another useless shill for banks and corps will win ;-)

Check back after the day to see if .....never mind, I am right!

Nice ambiguity, almost.

 

[The Old Medic]

What Ickarus27K forgets is that not all States give all of their votes to whoever "won" in their state. There are a number of states that divide up the electoral votes according to the actual votes. In other words, if a State has 36 Electoral votes, the State can apportion those votes in whatever way it chooses to do so.

The Federal Constitution is silent about how those votes are to be divided, or whether or they even need to be apportioned.

 

[JLM]

What Ickarus27K forgets is that not all States give all of their votes to whoever "won" in their state. There are a number of states that divide up the electoral votes according to the actual votes. In other words, if a State has 36 Electoral votes, the State can apportion those votes in whatever way it chooses to do so.

The Federal Constitution is silent about how those votes are to be divided, or whether or they even need to be apportioned.

I believe there is ONE state that does that, not sure which one. Iowa?

 

[DaSleeper]

I believe there is ONE state that does that, not sure which one. Iowa?

I think only Nebraska and Maine....

 

[JLM]

I think only Nebraska and Maine....

O.K.- Iowa was close eh?

 

[PoliticalNick]

I thought it was a couple of new England states. Maine & Mass. Can't remember.

 

[Icarus27k]

What Ickarus27K forgets is that not all States give all of their votes to whoever "won" in their state. There are a number of states that divide up the electoral votes according to the actual votes. In other words, if a State has 36 Electoral votes, the State can apportion those votes in whatever way it chooses to do so.

The Federal Constitution is silent about how those votes are to be divided, or whether or they even need to be apportioned.

What you mean is that Nebraska and Maine award their EC votes by Congressional district, plus 2 statewide. 3 of Nebraska's 5 EC votes are given to the winner of the popular vote in each of the state's 3 Congressional districts and the last 2 EC votes are given to the winner of the statewide popular vote. Similarly, 2 of Maine's 4 EC votes go to the winner of the popular vote in each of Maine's 2 Congressional districts, plus 2 EC votes for the winner of the statewide popular vote.

I didn't think it deserved a mention because I was predicting that Romney would win all 3 of Nebraska's Congressional districts and the statewide vote, and I was also predicting Obama would win Maine's 2 Congressional districts and the statewide vote there.

In fact, the closest thing among the Nebraska and Maine votes I could be wrong about is that Obama could win one of Nebraska's Congressional districts (and thus get 1 extra EC vote), just like he did in 2008.