Does Harper really need to raise the retirement age? 
 Kevin Milligan is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of British Columbia
 
  In his 
address  to the Davos Economic Forum, Prime Minister Harper raised the issue of  major reforms to Canada’s public retirement income system. If a pension  debate is upon us, then let’s start with a look at some facts about the  federal system of public pensions. 
 
Currently,  the core Old Age Security pension is available starting at age 65. The  Guaranteed Income Supplement, paid to about a third of seniors, begins  at age 65. The Allowance for survivor are paid from ages 60 to 64 in  some circumstances. The Canada and Quebec Pension Plans allow reduced  pensions to begin at age 60, with ‘full’ pensions at age 65. The Prime  Minister explicitly (and 
correctly)  pointed out that the Canada Pension Plan is not in financial  difficulty. Instead, the target of reform appears to be Old Age  Security. 
 
If Canada does consider a change to retirement ages, we would not be alone. Among the G8 countries, the 
United States, the 
United Kingdom, 
Italy, 
Germany, and 
France have already made upward changes to their retirement ages. In 
Japan and 
Russia, it is being discussed. 
 
Is Canada really different? No and yes. 
 
Canada is not different because, in common with most other countries,  Canadians are living longer. For men, a 65 year old in 2007 could 
expect  to live another 18 years to age 83 -- a full 5 years longer than was  the case in 1967. Women’s life expectancy at age 65 has also increased  by 5 years. This improved longevity means that existing pension promises  become ever-more expensive. 
 
On the other hand, Canada is different because, unlike most other  countries, our public pension commitments are not a substantial threat  to our public finances. The Canada Pension Plan is in long-run 
balance. Old Age Security 
currently takes only 2.41 per cent of GDP. Very few 
OECD  countries have lower levels of public pension spending as a share of  GDP than Canada. To take the extreme example, Italy spends more than 14  per cent of GDP on public pensions -- up from 10 per cent only a few  years ago. 
 
How will spending in Canada grow as the baby boomers age? By 2031 -- at  the peak of the baby-boom retirement wave -- the share of GDP spent on  Old Age Security will rise to 3.14 per cent, for an increase of 0.73 per  cent over today’s level. Now, an increase of 0.73 per cent of GDP  cannot be ignored, but neither is it disastrous. To provide some scale,  David Dodge and Richard Dion 
project  that spending on health will grow from 12 per cent to 18.7 per cent of  GDP by 2031, for an increase of 6.7 percentage points. In the fight for  government spending dollars in 2031, health is the elephant and the Old  Age Security pension is the mouse. 
 
Whatever the fiscal savings of pushing up the Old Age Security  retirement age, we also must consider the cost. The wellbeing of  Canadian seniors has 
improved  tremendously over the last 40 years -- higher incomes, better  consumption, and healthier lives. However, in the years approaching  retirement ages, an increasing number of Canadians are unable to work  due to disability, declining job skills, or other reasons. 
In research  in progress, I am finding that around three quarters of those not  working in the years just before reaching age 65 have other sources of  income sufficient to get them out of low-income range. Of course, the  flipside is that one quarter of them do not. If the retirement age  increases, these Canadians may suffer as they wait for their public  pension cheques to begin flowing. 
  
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Does Harper really need to raise the retirement age? - The Globe and Mail