Death knell for AGW

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
15,441
150
63
The question I asked is independent of Walter's question.

Well, you addressed it to me, and I was responding to Walter.

Care to actually respond to it?
Not really, but I will anyways. In order to claim anthropogenic climate change caused this, well I don't think that's a reasonable claim at all. It's reasonable to assess the probability. In which case this event, is more likely, for any type of warming. Anthropogenic warming just happens to be what our climate is experiencing right now. All you can say is that this is consistent, which is what I was implying.
 

pgs

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 29, 2008
27,849
7,618
113
B.C.
Well, you addressed it to me, and I was responding to Walter.


Not really, but I will anyways. In order to claim anthropogenic climate change caused this, well I don't think that's a reasonable claim at all. It's reasonable to assess the probability. In which case this event, is more likely, for any type of warming. Anthropogenic warming just happens to be what our climate is experiencing right now. All you can say is that this is consistent, which is what I was implying.
Stirring the sugar into the koolaid still makes koolaid.
How are you enjoying yours.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
Well, you addressed it to me, and I was responding to Walter.


Not really, but I will anyways. In order to claim anthropogenic climate change caused this, well I don't think that's a reasonable claim at all. It's reasonable to assess the probability. In which case this event, is more likely, for any type of warming. Anthropogenic warming just happens to be what our climate is experiencing right now. All you can say is that this is consistent, which is what I was implying.


Still no answer then, eh?

Stirring the sugar into the koolaid still makes koolaid.
How are you enjoying yours.


Probably in teh cold and snow... You know, global warming and all.
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
15,441
150
63
Still no answer then, eh?

In order to claim anthropogenic climate change caused this, well I don't think that's a reasonable claim at all. It's reasonable to assess the probability. In which case this event, is more likely, for any type of warming. Anthropogenic warming just happens to be what our climate is experiencing right now. All you can say is that this is consistent, which is what I was implying.

Did they let all the trolls out at once today? Jebus
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
15,441
150
63
What is the base-line that you greenies have used to come to the conclusion that there is an anomaly in the first place?
It's not a single base line...there's many. That's what makes the findings of climate scientists robust, it doesn't depend on one baseline...

There's the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, the spectroscopic measurements of the carbon isotopes in the atmosphere, the top of the atmosphere radiation flux, the ground temperature record, the satellite temperature record, ocean heat content, ocean pH, water vapour, the ice cores, the mud cores, foraminifera, cosmogenic isotopes, sea ice loss, glacier mass balance, total solar irradience, the changing temperature profile of the atmosphere, the paleoclimate records of change. That's some of them.

You are obstinate in your focus on one variable at a time. That why you will never see this clearly. You have to bring all of these strings together to make attribution possible. Because, the scientists have found what happens when different climate forcings are changing.

It's a diagnosis. Doctors, engineers, scientists, mechanics, electricians, all sorts of professions make diagnoses based on the symptoms.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
113,738
12,951
113
Low Earth Orbit
You can design and build an automobile or airplane out of mathematical models but would you ride in a car or plane that wasn't crash tested?
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
15,441
150
63
You can design and build an automobile or airplane out of mathematical models but would you ride in a car or plane that wasn't crash tested?

You don't need a general circulation model to have any of those baselines/datasets I mentioned.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
It's not a single base line...there's many. That's what makes the findings of climate scientists robust, it doesn't depend on one baseline...



Herein lies the problem with the AGW argument... The goal posts get moved whenever convenient.

The bottom line is this; if you're looking to assess a cause-effect relationship, you need some form of base line to measure against.
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
15,441
150
63
The bottom line is this; if you're looking to assess a cause-effect relationship, you need some form of base line to measure against.
Those are all parameters for which baselines exist...there is no single baseline. Like I said, you're obstinate in your obsession with silver bullets.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
113,738
12,951
113
Low Earth Orbit
You don't need a general circulation model to have any of those baselines/datasets I mentioned.
They are all still assumptions and far from a baseline. Chemical modelling a dynamic body like earth over the eons is a task that only marketing teams & overactive imaginations can say we have aced.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
Those are all parameters for which baselines exist...there is no single baseline. Like I said, you're obstinate in your obsession with silver bullets.


It doesn't have to be one single base line, but there MUST be base formula, equation, etc that applies equally across all circumstances. That does not exist for the alarmist crowd... The parameters change hourly and retroactively based on what they want to fit with the result.

Face facts, the most basic scientific foundations related to the AGW theory does not exist and hence, you are completely unable to answer my question with an answer that has any kind of force.
 

ironsides

Executive Branch Member
Feb 13, 2009
8,583
60
48
United States
As the globe warms, more moisture is in the air. It's a feedback. Last year we set a global record for not only temperature, but moisture as well. It's continuing into 2011. American thinkers might have thought of that connection...if they were actually thinking seriously.
Wonder how many more years this moisture loop will last, the last one lasted a couple hundred years. (16th thru 18th centuries)
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
28,429
146
63
A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
As the globe warms, more moisture is in the air. It's a feedback. Last year we set a global record for not only temperature, but moisture as well. It's continuing into 2011. American thinkers might have thought of that connection...if they were actually thinking seriously.

... And as the temperature drops, that moisture falls out