Global Warming ‘Greatest Scam in History’

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captain morgan

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I believe it is fair to say that we will never completely understand all variables and interactions. In fact it's a red herring. We don't need to identify or understand all variables to be able to reach conclusions.


The red herring is that it is plausible to dismiss the lack of knowledge, understanding (let alone capacity to identify all of the variables & interactions) and claim to make conclusive statements regarding causation.


What do you have against models anyways? The scientific method is a model...statistics is very important for scientific analysis. Engineers use statistical models to identify inefficiencies in processes. Biologists use models to study energy flow. Chemists use models to study protein folding. Immunologists use models to test vaccine efficacy. Statistics is needed to analyze data. If it wasn't, then scientists could make one measurement and proceed. It's statistics which explains quantitatively why a sample size of one is insufficient.

Models are useful tools in a scientist's tool kit.


I have no problem with models or with statistics for that matter. That said, the use of statistics in this issue (in its totality) is, in my opinion, far too reliant on accounting for unknowns such that the margin of error is large enough to make a mockery of teh conclusion drawn from the stats. A similar argument can be applied to the modeling component.




I'm unaware of which comments you're referring to. Water vapour is included in the IPCC reviews. Just not on the list of forcings. It's a feedback responding to those forcings.


Those were directed at mentalfloss


Editorializing. The most abundant does not mean the most important.


The "editorial" was from the IPCC... I did not make those statements.
 

mentalfloss

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Well, it seems petros is coming along.

He believes the planet is warming.

He believes it isn't natural.

He believes one of the causes is AGW.

Good boy.

Well, I'll give him credit for at least having some sort of discourse.
 

Avro

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Why won't you reply to what you SEE and the implications of such atmoshperic structures?

I think I did old boy.

Gald to see your coming around.

Like I said, if you live near Toronto or Montreal I can get you access to a lab and a few climatologists if you'd like.

Let me know.
 

petros

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And what? What would you show me?

You buddy is smart enough to avoid answering.......

Tonnington doesn't like what he sees.

What do you see?
 
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Avro

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Thats stating the obvious.

Yes it is.

You are no scientist either petros.

You are a professional contrarian.

Most people say black and you say white....if that changed then you'd say black.

Anyways, would you like me to set something up for you?
 

Tonington

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The red herring is that it is plausible to dismiss the lack of knowledge, understanding (let alone capacity to identify all of the variables & interactions) and claim to make conclusive statements regarding causation.

More blah blah ignorant ranting about how science works...

I have no problem with models or with statistics for that matter.

Except for your compelling ignorance about the use of both...

The "editorial" was from the IPCC... I did not make those statements.

Well, I found this in the AR4, Chapter 2, section 2.1, page 133:
Nevertheless, LLGHGs remain the largest and most important driver of climate change, and evaluation of their trends is one of the fundamental tasks of both this chapter and this assessment.
Water vapour is not a long-lived greenhouse gas. I don't really care to quibble over which greenhouse gas is the most important- because I think that there is no single most important greenhouse gas-so much as which is the most important driver of climate change. Driving climate change means also driving water vapour trends...maybe they did say water vapour is the most important. I would disagree if they did.

And that would just go to show how ridiculous it is when you say folks like me accept IPCC stuff blindly.
 

petros

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Come on Tonnington what do you see in that satellite image? Do you see a heat trap that isn't CO2? Would you like to see more? They are worldwide and turning clear skies white daily.

Is that not a problem? Is NASA lieing about the direct effect?
 

Tonington

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Come on Tonnington what do you see in that satellite image?

I see aviation pollution.

Do you see a heat trap that isn't CO2?

Yes I do. So what? I never ever said that carbon dioxide is the only thing that matters.

Is that not a problem? Is NASA lieing about the direct effect?

I have no idea what the direct effect is, and if you actually read the IPCC stuff, you'd see that it's an active area of research.

Any more lies you want to trot out now?
 

mentalfloss

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Come on Tonnington what do you see in that satellite image? Do you see a heat trap that isn't CO2? Would you like to see more? They are worldwide and turning clear skies white daily.

Is that not a problem? Is NASA lieing about the direct effect?

That satellite image shows a lot of contrails. Contrails that wouldn't be at that altitude if the temperature wasn't so high. A temperature that wouldn't be so high if there weren't any C02 driving it up. C02 that NASA says is actually the driver for climate change. And around the ferris wheel of logic we go!
 

petros

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I have no idea what the direct effect is, and if you actually read the IPCC stuff, you'd see that it's an active area of research.
NASA is chopped liver to what the IPCC decides to include and publish? Are the NASA stats invaild? They were provided. NASA is a major contributor to IPCC are they not? NASA has data so why doesn't the IPCC use their data? Something wrong with it? Doesn't fit the CO2 monetization scheme?
 

Avro

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Contrails part of agw.

What a massive discovery petros..
 

petros

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That satellite image shows a lot of contrails. Contrails that wouldn't be at that altitude if the temperature wasn't so high. A temperature that wouldn't be so high if there weren't any C02 driving it up. C02 that NASA says is actually the driver for climate change. And around the ferris wheel of logic we go!
Yes it does show contrails. Contrails that make a heat trap over an already very warm part of the US and over the ocean between the mainland and Bermuda. What does that do to the normal weather and climate stats for that region or any region for that matter? heat traps like that over water create some nasty storms do they not? Has there been an increase in nasty storms? CO2 isn't pushing anything up. Aircraft now fly 10,000ft higher than they used to 20-30 years ago and they have better engine designs and wing designs which create far more compression and decompression of gasses which make them far more efficient and create far more vapor which makes heat traps all over the globe everyday, 365 days a year.
 

petros

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Here's some more NASA data, aircraft pollution responsible for 0.03°K at the surface, and 0.06°K in the upper troposphere. That seems consistent with the IPCC data.
Couldn't you find anything more current? I've posted all sorts of NASA papers that makes some very hefty claims and are 10 years more recent.

Keep looking.

BTW IPCC isn't god. It's politicians.
 

petros

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Pretty aren't they?


I'd hate to live under that.

Good thing it doesn't snow under those fake clouds or heat would really be trapped. It might even make the snow melt faster. Good thing there aren't any over the Arctic or things really might get out of hand.
 

captain morgan

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More blah blah ignorant ranting about how science works...



So... No answer then, eh?



Except for your compelling ignorance about the use of both...


Strawman! Rhetoric! Red Herring!


Let me guess, you're a self appointed expert statistician, climatologist, meteorologist, geophysicist, geologist and model developer... I suppose that's why they call you Mr. Science



Well, I found this in the AR4, Chapter 2, section 2.1, page 133:


Blah, blah, blah... More ignorant ranting and raving about the infallibility of you masters at the IPCC.

Why won't you reply to what you SEE and the implications of such atmoshperic structures?


You already know the answer to that Petros, Mr. Science is shopping for a study that somehow will support teh contention whilst not undermining his existing position.

Me thinks that he'll need to fabricate something or refer to some obscure reference that is fraught with massive reliance on statistical corrective techniques (read: a margin of error in excess of 90%).
 
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