"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth".
That is a very useful maxim , Anna (and Sherlock Holmes is my favorite detective). But that does not tell us what to put into the basket in the first place. Let me explain.
Let us say that a basket cantains an apple, a banana, a pineapple and a grape. You reach into the basket and pull a fruit at random. Without looking at it you try to guess what it is. You eliminate banana because of its shape, it is the wrong shape. You eliminate pineapple because of the size and texture. It feels roundish and smooth. You eliminate grape because of the size. What is left is an apple and you conclude that it is an apple.
So far, so good. However, who decides what to put in the basket in the first place? Let us say that we put a banana, a pineapple, a grape and an orange in the basket. We pull a fruit at random. Now, the argument, the logic will be exactly the same as before, but this time we conclude that it is an orange, instead of an apple.