All evidence points to Iran preparing to build a nuke weapon.
The evidence supports the conclusion that Iran walked up to the line and didn't cross it. A scientist making doodles on a napkin can mean anything...
Iran probable does have an NPT compliant nuclear break out capability. But their program is monitored and their facilities have purely civilian purposes.
Civilian and military nuclear technology share common technology and research directions to a point. Research/Technology which diverges solely toward a military path violates the NPT. ie> Enrichment limited to 20% prevent Iran from manufacturing nuclear weapon components.Deliberate enrichment beyond 20% has no civilian purpose.
Iran has an NPT right to master the fuel cycle from mining (Iran) to disposal (Russia by agreement).
Likely they also have many empty caves of spare parts....
Recommend this link on Iranian public opinion!
Nuclear Weapons
Both the TFT and WPO polls show the vast majority of Iranians want their country to develop nuclear energy. TFT found that 89 percent of Iranians favor (including 78% who strongly favor) "the Iranian Government developing nuclear energy." [TFT, Q 12a] WPO found that 90 percent of Iranians believe it is important (including 81% very important) for Iran "to have a full fuel cycle nuclear program." [WPO, Q 28]
Both polls also show that the Iranian public's support for the development of nuclear weapons is considerably less than that for nuclear energy, but how much less depends considerably on how the question was posed. TFT asked about Iran's government developing nuclear weapons immediately after its question on nuclear energy and found a slim majority in favor (51% vs. 39% opposed). [TFT, Q 12b] WPO asked several questions about Iran foregoing nuclear weapons in the context of different international proposals that did not limit Iran's nuclear energy program. Each of these questions found a clear majority willing to accept the proposal. For example, 58 percent favor (vs. 26% oppose) the following offer:
"Suppose the U.N. Security Council were to say that it would accept Iran having a full fuel cycle nuclear program limited to the enrichment levels necessary for nuclear energy, if Iran agrees to allow the IAEA permanent and full access throughout Iran to ensure that its nuclear program is limited to energy production." [WPO, Q 34; also see QQ. 27 and 74]
TFT found large majorities of Iranians saying they would be willing to forego developing nuclear weapons in return for "trade and capital investment to create jobs" (70% support vs. 22% oppose) and "technological assistance for developing peaceful nuclear energy" (71% vs. 20%). [TFT, QQ 13a, 13d]
Views of the United States
Relations with the West
Iran's Regional Role
U.S.-Iranian Negotiations
Iranian Public Opinion on Governance, Nuclear Weapons and Relations with the United States - World Public Opinion