Iran under Sanction Pressures – Reaction?

Oil Sanction


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taxslave

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 25, 2008
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Whoever is elected keystone will flow. We should be fast tracking a pipeline thru BC. Then another east. With refineries. Added value to the product. That may happen if Harper has the balls to go face to face with Aboriginals that are against the western lines. Naturally deals would have to be made.

Aboriginals are not against the pipeline. They are just negotiating for a larger piece of the pie.
 

Goober

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Jan 23, 2009
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Aboriginals are not against the pipeline. They are just negotiating for a larger piece of the pie.

They are formally against an oil pipeline - Until better negotiations - slice of the profits come. They had voted unanimously against the oil pipeline. Not the gas, the bitumen line

Interesting how two different sources say two different things. Well, at least mine came directly from Iran. The reader will have to determine for him/herself which is more accurate.

As for the West including Europe - that's true. And it remains Iran's biggest trading partner.

From the horses mouth.

U.S. in no position to prevent Hormuz Strait closure: IRGC deputy commander - Tehran Times

“In the event that Iran’s vital interests are threatened in any way, we will use threat against threat and will not stop implementing our strategies,” he added.


Iran will not ask for any country’s permission to employ its defensive strategies, he said, adding, “The Islamic Republic of Iran, over the past 33 years, has showed that it has successfully implemented its measures despite the U.S. interference.”


He also said, “We will act more determinedly and strongly than ever to implement defensive strategies to defend the vital values of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Oil Sanctions are a threat - We both know how it will impact Iran.
 

Goober

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Jan 23, 2009
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They are formally against an oil pipeline - Until better negotiations - slice of the profits come. They had voted unanimously against the oil pipeline. Not the gas, the bitumen line



From the horses mouth.

U.S. in no position to prevent Hormuz Strait closure: IRGC deputy commander - Tehran Times

“In the event that Iran’s vital interests are threatened in any way, we will use threat against threat and will not stop implementing our strategies,” he added.


Iran will not ask for any country’s permission to employ its defensive strategies, he said, adding, “The Islamic Republic of Iran, over the past 33 years, has showed that it has successfully implemented its measures despite the U.S. interference.”


He also said, “We will act more determinedly and strongly than ever to implement defensive strategies to defend the vital values of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Oil Sanctions are a threat - We both know how it will impact Iran.

Gopher must be hiding out.
 

ironsides

Executive Branch Member
Feb 13, 2009
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I wonder if Obama is rethinking his position on Keystone XL yet. ANy long term embargo on Iranian oil is bound to cause the already excessively high priced crude oil go even higher.

The Keystone pipeline will be built, we (Canada and the U.S. cannot continue to rely on Mid-Eastern oil).
 

Goober

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Jan 23, 2009
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The Keystone pipeline will be built, we (Canada and the U.S. cannot continue to rely on Mid-Eastern oil).

We hunt Gophers up here. Cause a lot of damage for cattle / horses problems with the burrows etc broken legs. You hunt them down south. I think gopher went under ground. Gun shots make them a tad skittish.
 

ironsides

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Feb 13, 2009
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If Iran tries to block the straits of Hormuz, the 5th fleet will reduce their offensive capabilities in 2-3 days not to mention what will fly over from Diego Garcia. The straits will remain open.
 

Goober

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If Iran tries to block the straits of Hormuz, the 5th fleet will reduce their offensive capabilities in 2-3 days not to mention what will fly over from Diego Garcia. The straits will remain open.

It was good to get the Carrier out. Prime target. They can sit nicely out of range and safer. Diesel subs are a problem but they also have a weakness.
 

earth_as_one

Time Out
Jan 5, 2006
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Iran doesn't have to fire a single missile or torpedo to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. The threat of military action alone would raise insurance rates to the point where oil tankers could not afford the risk of running an Iranian blockade. The US could also shut down Iran's ability to export oil the same way.

If the US and other nations shut down Iran's ability to export oil, then Iran would be completely justified making a tit for tat threat to sink any oil tanker attempting to pass through the straight of Hormuz. So its highly doubtful the US or any nation would resort to force or the threat of force to shut down Iran's oil exporting capability. However, Iran would have no justification for action if its clients simply stop buying Iranian oil. Iran's problems with Israel and the US aren't a priority for China and many other countries, so I doubt US/European led embargo would completely shut down Iran's oil exports.

If the question is does Iran have the ability to sink ships in the gulf despite the presence of the US Navy, I'd say yes. Its pretty hard for an oil tanker to defend itself from conventional torpedoes and missiles, never mind Iran's supercavitating Hoot Torpedo:

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran tests 'super-fast' torpedo

No ship or submarine can outrun that type of torpedo. The only way the US could prevent Iran from shutting down the straight is by invading and occupying Iran. In the current situation, Russia and/or China would likely veto any US resolution at the UNSC to use force against Iran. The US would have to have concrete proof that Iran is attempting to acquire nuclear weapon technology. Given the lucrative Iran/China trade relationship, it would be in China's best interest to help Iran defend itself, rather than risk loosing the billions they've already invested in Iran's energy infrastructure:

People's Republic of China

Any US attack against Iran's oil infrastructure would risk a direct conflict with China.
 

ironsides

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Feb 13, 2009
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It was good to get the Carrier out. Prime target. They can sit nicely out of range and safer. Diesel subs are a problem but they also have a weakness.

The diesel shouldn't be to much of a problem for the attack subs escorting the carrier. If they were Japanese or Swedish electric's I would worry more.

Iran doesn't have to fire a single missile or torpedo to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. The threat of military action alone would raise insurance rates to the point where oil tankers could not afford the risk of running an Iranian blockade. The US could also shut down Iran's ability to export oil the same way.


BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran tests 'super-fast' torpedo

No ship or submarine can outrun that type of torpedo. The only way the US could prevent Iran from shutting down the straight is by invading and occupying Iran. In the current situation, Russia and/or China would likely veto any US resolution at the UNSC to use force against Iran. The US would have to have concrete proof that Iran is attempting to acquire nuclear weapon technology. Given the lucrative Iran/China trade relationship, it would be in China's best interest to help Iran defend itself, rather than risk loosing the billions they've already invested in Iran's energy infrastructure:

.

It will not be NATO or the U.S. that will do something foolish first. Iran is doing enough already to provoke preventive measures. What makes anyone so sure were not using that torpedo or counter measures.
 

Goober

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Iran doesn't have to fire a single missile or torpedo to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. The threat of military action alone would raise insurance rates to the point where oil tankers could not afford the risk of running an Iranian blockade. The US could also shut down Iran's ability to export oil the same way.

During the Iran - Iraq War the costs in todays dollars would add 6 $ per barrel. Check your history. Hardly a huge amount
 

earth_as_one

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Iran has thousands of sea mines, wake homing torpedoes, hundreds of advanced cruise missiles and possibly more than one thousand small Fast Attack Craft and Fast Inshore Attack Craft. I'm sure Iran would suffer massive losses, but they would effectively shut down the straight and sink every hostile navel vessel in the Persian Gulf. The US would have to fight this war from |Arabian sea or further out. Also, Iran has tens of thousands of medium range missiles capable of striking Israel and every US base in the region.

I don't see how the US or Israel could possibly act militarily against Iran and not sustain serious damage or risk dragging most of the world into the conflict.
 

Goober

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Iran has thousands of sea mines, wake homing torpedoes, hundreds of advanced cruise missiles and possibly more than one thousand small Fast Attack Craft and Fast Inshore Attack Craft. I'm sure Iran would suffer massive losses, but they would effectively shut down the straight and sink every hostile navel vessel in the Persian Gulf. The US would have to fight this war from |Arabian sea or further out. Also, Iran has tens of thousands of medium range missiles capable of striking Israel and every US base in the region.

I don't see how the US or Israel could possibly act militarily against Iran and not sustain serious damage or risk dragging most of the world into the conflict.

It is not as difficult as you think - couple of weeks perhaps 4 at the most. Add in the US allies that depend upon Hormuz. Did you consider that. No.
 

Machjo

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Oct 19, 2004
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Iran under Sanction Pressures – Reaction?

With almost complete sanction on Iranian Banks – It is harder then before to conduct business.

The EU and others are in the process of imposing Sanction on Iranian Oil

No oil sales – no money – Cost of living has increased, along with all the other problems that this will cause.

Now Iran is in the threatening Stage – Any imposition of Oil sanctions they state will result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

A long term oil embargo will bankrupt the Thugocracy.

Needless to say this will result in a War.

Finally sanctions that may cause Iran to sit down and cooperate on their Nuclear Programs.

Now if oil sanctions are imposed 80% of Iranian Revenue is gone. The political difficulties from this will be immense for the Thugocracy -

U.S. Fifth Fleet: Iran disrupting oil exports through Strait of Hormuz 'will not be tolerated' | News | National Post

The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the world’s most important oil route.
“Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated,” the Bahrain-based fleet said in an e-mail.

Iran, at loggerheads with the West over its nuclear program, said on Tuesday it would stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if sanctions were imposed on its crude exports.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran’s armed forces is really easy … or as Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water,” Iran’s navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told Iran’s English-language Press TV on Wednesday.
“But right now, we don’t need to shut it …,” said Sayyari, who is leading 10 days of exercises in the Strait.

Analysts say that Iran could potentially cause havoc in the Strait of Hormuz, a strip of water separating Oman and Iran, which connects the biggest Gulf oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, it is 21 miles across.
But its navy would be no match for the firepower of the Fifth Fleet which consists of 20-plus ships supported by combat aircraft, with 15,000 people afloat and another 1,000 ashore.
A spokesperson for the Fifth Fleet said in response to queries from Reuters that, it “maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilizing activities,” without providing further details.
A British Foreign Office spokesman called the Iranian threat “rhetoric,” saying: “Iranian politicians regularly use this type of rhetoric to distract attention from the real issue, which is the nature of their nuclear program.”

US Warns Iran Against Closing Hormuz Route - TIME

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/w...f-embargo-is-imposed.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast

U.S. warns Iran that oil disruption 'will not be tolerated' - The Globe and Mail

The U.S. warned Iran Wednesday that it will not tolerate any disruption of naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran's navy chief said the Islamic Republic is capable of closing the vital oil route if the West imposes new sanctions targeting Tehran's oil exports.
Iran's Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV that closing the strait, which is the only sea outlet for the crucial oil fields in and around the Persian Gulf, “is very easy” for his country's naval forces

Some more research links.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/IS3301_pp082-117_Talmadge.pdf

Closing Strait of Hormuz not so easy for Iran: analysts | Reuters

Will Iran Block the Hormuz Strait? | Foreign Policy Journal

Iran Viewpoint: Strait Of Hormuz As Iran

Should this be a UN sanciton it will be effective since all nations would be participating in it.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it would not allow any disruption of
traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving
through the world’s most important oil route.

“Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international
strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will
not be tolerated,” the Bahrain-based fleet said in an e-mail.
Nice propaganada piece that either contains a lie or mistake in fact collecting because if you want to float tankers in and out of the Gulf you have to go through Iranian waters. Any ship that decides to make a run for it is fair game to be shot at.
 

Cliffy

Standing Member
Nov 19, 2008
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Nice propaganada piece that either contains a lie or mistake in fact collecting because if you want to float tankers in and out of the Gulf you have to go through Iranian waters. Any ship that decides to make a run for it is fair game to be shot at.
Gotta love how the US keeps taking pot shots at Iran an then get all bent out of shape when they try to defend themselves. I don't get why some people on here don't think they have a right to defend themselves against such a powerful and unreasonable foe.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Somebody doesn't want other major world producers using the Kish bourse which will accept any currency except US Dollars.