Everyting is ireeeeeee mon
Canada's energy slump to wipe out $23-billion over two years
The slump in Alberta’s energy sector is set to wipe out billions more in corporate earnings, complicating growth plans and putting investor dividends at greater risk.
An analysis of more than 30 major oil sands projects by consultancy Wood Mackenzie Group says as much as $23-billion (U.S.) of cash flow will disappear over the next two years – even if U.S. crude oil prices rise to $55 a barrel this year and $65 in 2016 from today’s lows.
Even as the energy sector reels from the sharp drop in oil prices, the Edinburgh-based consultancy said a series of expansions and new projects where investments were made long before oil prices hit the skids will add as much as 458,000 barrels per day of oil sands production over the next two years.
But much of the new output will generate skimpy returns compared to historic levels, highlighting the central predicament faced by Alberta’s high-cost industry as it struggles to adjust to lower crude prices amid a market glut.
“The margins are going to be squeezed, but because of the long-life nature of the assets, producers are generally going to be forced to operate at a reduced margin or even at a loss in the short term,” said Michael Hebert, a Calgary-based analyst and author of the analysis.
“The production is coming online regardless of what the short-term price is doing.”
West Texas intermediate oil for April delivery on Tuesday fell 17 cents to $49.28 a barrel, as U.S. stockpiles rose. In June, the U.S. benchmark fetched more than $100.
For years, triple-digit oil prices fuelled expectations of endless supply growth in northern Alberta, even with multibillion-dollar pipeline proposals such as TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL stuck in limbo.
However, the price plunge has prompted major budget revisions and layoffs at scores of energy companies, stoking broader concerns about weakness in the Alberta economy.
The oil-rich province on Tuesday said it expected to finish the current fiscal year with a $465-million (Canadian) surplus, down sharply from previous estimates. The province expects a deficit of more than $7-billion in the next fiscal year.
Alberta’s deteriorating finances reflect, in part, shaky growth prospects in the oil sands, where high costs and weak prices are squeezing returns.
Companies across the energy sector are deferring spending, cancelling new projects and ratcheting up pressure on suppliers to cut rates in a bid to lower overall costs and offset dwindling profits. A number of companies have also slashed their quarterly dividend, but others have stood pat.
Seven Generations Energy Ltd., which is exploring for oil near Grande Prairie, Alta., on Tuesday said it expected to save $50-million by negotiating deals with its suppliers. The Calgary-based company chopped its 2015 budget by as much as 20 per cent to between $1.3-billion and $1.35-billion.
Others have turned to the market to shore up finances. Cenvous Energy Inc. this month sought to raise $1.5-billion by selling shares after cutting as many as 800 jobs to bolster its balance sheet.
Still, growth plans are falling by the wayside. This week, Royal Dutch Shell PLC shelved plans for a 200,000 barrel-a-day mining venture north of Fort McMurray, Alta. called Pierre River, saying the project is no longer a priority as it seeks to wring better performance from its existing assets. The global oil giant last month cut some 300 jobs from a separate Alberta oil sands project.
The moves mirrored decisions by Suncor Energy Inc., Cenovus and others pinched by dramatically lower crude prices.
Wood Mackenzie now forecasts daily oil sands production will hit four million barrels in 2024, four years later than previously anticipated.
Topics:
Suncor Energy Inc.
Royal Dutch Shell plc
Energy
Canada
Canada's energy slump to wipe out $23-billion over two years - The Globe and Mail