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OTTAWA - The new year brings with it tax changes at the federal level that will affect just about every Canadian, as well as small businesses.
One of the first changes workers will see is an increase in Canada Pension Plan premiums coming off their paycheques — the first of five years of hikes to pay for enhancements to the pension plan.
Employment Insurance premiums, on the other hand, will drop by four cents for every $100 of insurable earnings.
Meanwhile, the small business tax rate is going down from 10 to nine per cent. But changes to how much so-called passive income a small business can hold are also coming into effect, which is expected to push some businesses into paying a much higher corporate tax rate.
Also in 2019, low income workers can qualify for an increase in the Canada Workers Benefit. But they will have to wait until 2020 to receive the extra money.
The federal government's new carbon pricing system will also come into effect in provinces that don't have carbon pricing mechanisms of their own, resulting in higher costs for fossil fuels by April, and direct rebates to partly offset the increased costs.
Conservative Opposition Leader Andrew Scheer is already gearing up to make it an issue leading to the October federal election, calling 2019 the year of the carbon tax.
(Bloomberg) -- Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened to the largest in six months in November as crude oil prices tumbled, adding to evidence the economy is entering into a soft patch.
The nation posted a C$2.1 billion ($1.6 billion) shortfall during the month, more than double the C$851 million trade gap in October, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday in Ottawa. Exports fell 2.9 percent in November, for the biggest one-month decline in over a year, as oil shipments plunged 18 percent.
The sudden slump in oil prices has sidetracked what had been an improving export performance last year, leading to what is expected to be a temporary slowdown for the Canadian economy on falling export receipts and the impact of production shutdowns in Alberta to deal with transport bottlenecks.
The weakness also seems to have spread beyond energy, as shipments outside of that sector also declined in November by 1.4 percent. Exports were down in eight of 11 sectors tracked by Statistics Canada during the month.
Falling prices meanwhile were only partially responsible for the drop in shipments. Exports in volume terms fell 1.8 percent in November, including a 1.6 percent drop in non-energy exports.
Exports have now fallen four straight months, the longest negative streak since 2015. Imports also fell in November, dropping 0.5 percent, their third monthly decline.
The trade deficit was in line with the median economist forecast of C$2.15 billion, from an initially reported October deficit of C$1.17 billion. The country remains on pace to produce its lowest trade deficit in four years in 2018.
Statistics Canada also reiterated its next trade report may be hampered if the partial U.S. government shutdown continues, because it relies on American data to calculate exports.
It's not just the Western oil.Falling oil prices drive Canadian trade deficit to six month high
Libs. just can't shake that dirty oil from the economy
Falling oil prices drive Canadian trade deficit to six month high
Libs. just can't shake that dirty oil from the economy
Growth is expected to ease globally as momentum sputters in countries like the U.S., with Canada showing signs of a sharp step down from its G7-leading 3 per cent in 2017, according to a report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The monthly composite leading indicators report Monday affirmed slowing growth across the 36-nation OECD with more declines on the horizon for Canada, the U.K., the Eurozone (including Germany, France and Italy), and in the United States where some cooling is expected later this year.
“In the United States and Germany, the tentative signs of easing growth momentum that were flagged in last month’s assessment have been confirmed,” the Paris-based research organization said in a statement.
Most forecasters have been anticipating a global slowdown, with the first quarter of 2019 being seen as particularly weak in Canada due to an 8.7 per cent reduction in oilsands output that kicked in at the start of January.
“We do, however, continue to think growth will rebound from that weak showing as oil production ramps up and the rest of the economy continues to grow roughly at potential,” said Scotiabank deputy chief economist Jean-Francois Perrault in an email.
The OECD data, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity up to nine months ahead, continues to flag stable growth in Japan, with easing momentum seen for Brazil and Russia.
Stable growth remains the assessment for the industrial sector in India and China, even though customs data Monday showed an unexpectedly steep decline in Chinese exports to the United States in December.
The OECD data shows a twelfth consecutive monthly drop in Canadian economic growth — to 99.1 in November from 99.3 the previous month amid signs that growth in the U.S. may be slowing faster than anticipated. The U.S. indicator fell for the third straight month to 99.6 and further below the 100 mark that points to steady growth. By contrast, China’s indicator rose slightly to 98.8.
The leading indicator for the Eurozone was below 100 for a fourth straight month, pointing to a continuation of the slowdown that began last year.
Canada’s economy is expected to expand by 1.9 per cent in 2019 compared with 2.1 per cent last year according to a survey of economists in early January by Bloomberg News that sees a 20 per cent chance or recession within the next 12 months. The survey sees 1.5 per cent growth in the first quarter versus an estimated 1.9 per cent in the final three months of 2018.
U.S.-China trade tensions along with indications that global economic activity is approaching capacity “have taken some of the steam out of exports and put commodity prices on the defensive,” RBC chief economist Craig Wright said in a 2019 outlook, adding that consumers are being squeezed by three rate hikes in 2018 that pressured the housing sector, although RBC expects the central bank to hike rates two more times this year.
Statistics Canada says GDP rose 3 per cent in Canada in 2017 — ahead of all the other Group of Seven countries — as household expenditures jumped by 3.5 per cent.
Canada’s economic growth expected to slow