Quote: Originally Posted by gerryh
I'm curious eao. If Iran decided to close the straight because of the imposed sanctions, and the u.s. and allies decided to use that as an excuse to intervene. Where would you stand?
Iran can't legally close the strait due to US endorsed economic sanctions. The US has a sovereign right to choose their trading partners. That not only includes Iran, but any nation or organization which does business with Iran. Iran is free to impose its own punitive sanctions against the US in response...
If Iran decided to close the strait illegally and the US and allies used that as an excuse to intervene.. I'd buy shares in Cenovus.
Cenovus Energy Inc: TSE:CVE quotes & news - Google Finance (external - login to view)
Yes the US and other countries would have a right to bomb Iran, but I doubt Iran would be that dumb... Iran doesn't want a direct conflict either. I'm not sure what was behind that recent Iranian statement, but Iran also profits from high oil prices.
Pragmatically, Iran has no interest in shutting down the gulf, while they continue to sell oil. Most Iranian oil terminals are in the Persian Gulf and indefensible. A war would be extremely destructive for everyone including Iran.
Iran can only close the strait legally to belligerents in response to an act of war. Economic sanctions and trade embargoes aren't acts of war. IMO these types of punitive measure are a legitimate means for one nation to apply pressure on another which could avert or cause war.
BTW, any nation including Iran could covertly close the Persian Gulf to tankers using floating mines deployed by commercial vessels. Even if the mines never hit a single tanker, the gulf would close immediately based on insurance rates. The US and other nations could go in and clean it up, but a month later and a few more mines would close the gulf again... the source of the disruptions could be difficult to prove... even potentially false flag (Iranian deployed American made mines?) In the current volatile situation, a relatively small terrorist or militant group could spark a world war with a few floating mines and a lucky hit.
Iran is a threat to Israel, but they don't need nukes to defeat Israel. Iran's leaders probably intend to a fight proxy war.
Iran's domestic arms industry:
List of military equipment manufactured in Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (external - login to view)
man-portable surface to air missile
fire and forget infrared
Effective range: 5000 m
Warhead weight: 1.42 kg
15,000 kg (System)
90 kg (HE Content)
175 kg (Warhead)
915 kg (Rocket)
Effective range 68-75 km
Haifa Attack 6 aug 2006 - YouTube
Toofan (Storm) 5 Missile, Anti Tank/Aircraft with counter electronic warfare systems
Iranian - Toofan Storm 5 Missile Anti TankAircraft with counter electronic warfare systems - YouTube
A Russian viewpoint of the 2006 Israel/Hezbollah skirmish... re: anti-tank weapons and other man portable munitions:
Hezbollah (external - login to view)
Likely Iranian defense strategies based on military capabilities
Iran's Military Doctrine | The Iran Primer (external - login to view)
Last edited by earth_as_one; Jan 2nd, 2012 at 12:21 AM..