No kidding.
Canada seen as big loser if world gets serious about climate change
Most of Canada’s oil riches should stay the ground, according to an international study that has deemed 75 per cent of Canada’s oil and all the Arctic’s fossil fuels “unburnable.”
The study, released Wednesday by the journal Nature, is one of the more comprehensive and provocative looks yet at the energy transformation needed to limit global warming.
Many of the planet’s fossil fuel resources should never be used, it says, with Canada standing out of as one of the big losers.
If the international community lives up to pledges to limit global climate warming to 2 C, the study says 75 per cent of Canada’s oil reserves and 85 per cent of its oilsands bitumen will be “unburnable” before 2050.
And unless some “whizo technology” comes along to economically and safely exploit Arctic oil and gas, it too will be left in the ground, says co-author Paul Ekins, a professor at University College London and deputy director of the United Kingdom Energy Research Centre.
The study, which is sure to fuel debate leading up to international climate talks later this year, assessed a range of scenarios based on least-cost climate policies.
It concludes that a third of global oil reserves, half of gas reserves and more than 80 per cent of coal reserves won’t be needed before 2050 if the 2 C warming target is met.
The study found most of the coal reserves in China, Russia and the United States would remain unused along with more than 260 billion barrels oil reserves in the Middle East, which is equivalent to all of the oil reserves held by Saudi Arabia. The Middle East would also leave more than 60 per cent of its gas reserves in the ground if the planet is to stay within the 2 C “carbon budget.”
The study found Canada would be left with the highest level of unburnable oil reserves — 75 per cent of Canada’s oil is unburned by 2050, because the bitumen in the oilsands is so expensive to get out of the ground and get to market.
“Open-pit mining of natural bitumen in Canada soon drops to negligible levels after 2020 in all scenarios because it is considerably less economic than other methods of production,” the report says. It found capturing and storing carbon underground will do little to help with 85 per cent of Canada’s bitumen remaining “unburnable” even with aggressive carbon capture.
The study does point to a big role for natural gas in a low-carbon world. Gas releases much less carbon than other fossil fuels and the study says it will be an important substitute for coal. Only 24 per cent of Canada’s reserves are deemed unburnable by 2050.
The study adds to a growing pile of reports showing fossil fuel use must be limited if governments and policy-makers are to meet the 2 C goal to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“It is obvious to everyone who is just a bit scientific about this that the earth’s crust is full of fossil fuels and to burn them all would cause grave damage,” says Mark Jaccard, an energy economist at Simon Fraser University, who has long called on the Canadian government to adopt a more sustainable energy policy.
The new study adds the “obvious point” that fossil fuels that are cheaper to exploit will win out over fuels that are more expensive to exploit, Jarrard said, noting the findings are “not good” for Canada’s oilsands, already being hammered by plummeting oil prices.
Canada seen as big loser if world gets serious about climate change | canada.com
Canada seen as big loser if world gets serious about climate change
Most of Canada’s oil riches should stay the ground, according to an international study that has deemed 75 per cent of Canada’s oil and all the Arctic’s fossil fuels “unburnable.”
The study, released Wednesday by the journal Nature, is one of the more comprehensive and provocative looks yet at the energy transformation needed to limit global warming.
Many of the planet’s fossil fuel resources should never be used, it says, with Canada standing out of as one of the big losers.
If the international community lives up to pledges to limit global climate warming to 2 C, the study says 75 per cent of Canada’s oil reserves and 85 per cent of its oilsands bitumen will be “unburnable” before 2050.
And unless some “whizo technology” comes along to economically and safely exploit Arctic oil and gas, it too will be left in the ground, says co-author Paul Ekins, a professor at University College London and deputy director of the United Kingdom Energy Research Centre.
The study, which is sure to fuel debate leading up to international climate talks later this year, assessed a range of scenarios based on least-cost climate policies.
It concludes that a third of global oil reserves, half of gas reserves and more than 80 per cent of coal reserves won’t be needed before 2050 if the 2 C warming target is met.
The study found most of the coal reserves in China, Russia and the United States would remain unused along with more than 260 billion barrels oil reserves in the Middle East, which is equivalent to all of the oil reserves held by Saudi Arabia. The Middle East would also leave more than 60 per cent of its gas reserves in the ground if the planet is to stay within the 2 C “carbon budget.”
The study found Canada would be left with the highest level of unburnable oil reserves — 75 per cent of Canada’s oil is unburned by 2050, because the bitumen in the oilsands is so expensive to get out of the ground and get to market.
“Open-pit mining of natural bitumen in Canada soon drops to negligible levels after 2020 in all scenarios because it is considerably less economic than other methods of production,” the report says. It found capturing and storing carbon underground will do little to help with 85 per cent of Canada’s bitumen remaining “unburnable” even with aggressive carbon capture.
The study does point to a big role for natural gas in a low-carbon world. Gas releases much less carbon than other fossil fuels and the study says it will be an important substitute for coal. Only 24 per cent of Canada’s reserves are deemed unburnable by 2050.
The study adds to a growing pile of reports showing fossil fuel use must be limited if governments and policy-makers are to meet the 2 C goal to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“It is obvious to everyone who is just a bit scientific about this that the earth’s crust is full of fossil fuels and to burn them all would cause grave damage,” says Mark Jaccard, an energy economist at Simon Fraser University, who has long called on the Canadian government to adopt a more sustainable energy policy.
The new study adds the “obvious point” that fossil fuels that are cheaper to exploit will win out over fuels that are more expensive to exploit, Jarrard said, noting the findings are “not good” for Canada’s oilsands, already being hammered by plummeting oil prices.
Canada seen as big loser if world gets serious about climate change | canada.com