What's the end game for Crimea?

White_Unifier

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If we're not going to fight a war over Crimea and if Russia won't release it over mere sanctions, then are we planning on just keeping the sanctions on Russia for the next 70 years or is it time to move on, drop the sanctions, and trade with Russia again? The whole point of the sanctions was to force Russia to release Crimea. It hasn't and it won't unless we put boots on the ground. Given its nuclear capability, we probably won't put boots on the ground. So what is the end game?
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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Didn't the people of Crimeria vote in a fair??? election to join Russia?

It was a little rushed. But in the end, the question is, what's the end game? Do we launch a military strike, sanction Russia for the next seventy years, or return to trade with it?
 

Johnnny

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It was a little rushed. But in the end, the question is, what's the end game? Do we launch a military strike, sanction Russia for the next seventy years, or return to trade with it?

Whats the official word on the election? If it was a "legit" election and the people of Crimea voted to join Russia then doesnt that mean we have to respect their wishes?
 

White_Unifier

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Whats the official word on the election? If it was a "legit" election and the people of Crimea voted to join Russia then doesnt that mean we have to respect their wishes?

I find it more complicated than that. The referendum may or may not have been legit. Even if it was legit, Russia had no right to invade Crimea to force this referendum on them. Even if the referendum was legit and the people voted to join Russia, Russia was still wrong to invade it.

If we have doubts about the referendum results, I suppose we could insist on a new UN-monitored referendum. What do we do if they again vote to stay with Russia? Russia would still have been wrong to invade, yet the people voting to join the Russian Federation would obviously have muddied the waters in a big way. So what will we do about it?

My opinion is that unless we have an end-game, it's time to resume trade with Russia, not because what Russia did was right, but because we don't actually intend to do anything that will ensure the return of Crimea to Ukraine. In practical terms, unless our plan has a reasonable chance of success, it's time to move on.
 
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Johnnny

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According to google maps in the Ukraine from an Ukrainian domain the Crimea is still part of Ukraine while according to our domain and a Russian domain its part of Russia.

Google even defied the UN by doing it.

Problem solved.

Ukraine has lost because google doesn't want to lose its business in Russia
 

10larry

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Crimea was russian for the longest time n' the referendum simpy verified that russians preferred to remain russian. There was no invasion of crimea simply an referendum that the u.s. declared invalid as it did not follow their black sea road map. A boo at crimeas' intact infrastructure pretty much proves no invasion blew through, iraq and libya where invasions did occur only rubble and assorted decaying body parts remain.
The hoped for end game was to drive the russian naval fleet off their perch, this large powerful naval force in crimea is a major pain in the wests' butt that imo russia intends to keep.
 

Curious Cdn

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Crimea was russian for the longest time n' the referendum simpy verified that russians preferred to remain russian. There was no invasion of crimea simply an referendum that the u.s. declared invalid as it did not follow their black sea road map. A boo at crimeas' intact infrastructure pretty much proves no invasion blew through, iraq and libya where invasions did occur only rubble and assorted decaying body parts remain.
The hoped for end game was to drive the russian naval fleet off their perch, this large powerful naval force in crimea is a major pain in the wests' butt that imo russia intends to keep.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is a junkyard of rusting, obsolete hulks. The Russians are trying to re-building it but they are severely fiscally challenged. If they manage to do so, it will be at the cost of some real hardship for the Russian people.
 

Twin_Moose

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Whats the official word on the election? If it was a "legit" election and the people of Crimea voted to join Russia then doesnt that mean we have to respect their wishes?

It was a forced referendum with un-official Russian military standing guard at the polling stations, not allowing the Tatars to vote, and limiting Ukrainian citizens from voting, caught stuffing ballots. The referendum was only recognized by Russia and it's couple of cronies.

Crimea's referendum was a sham display of democracy

Before anyone rushes to accept this vote, they might also like to note the most recent poll in Crimea – published last month – showed just 41% wanted unity with Russia. This was a rise of five points in a year, and was taken as the violence flared in Kiev, but it makes it impossible to assume a majority really wanted to join Russia – let alone 97% of the population. It is also worth recalling that when the Soviet Union collapsed, a majority in Crimea endorsed Ukrainian independence – although its economic performance has been disastrous and millions have moved away these past two decades.

Crimea was russian for the longest time n' the referendum simpy verified that russians preferred to remain russian. There was no invasion of crimea simply an referendum that the u.s. declared invalid as it did not follow their black sea road map. A boo at crimeas' intact infrastructure pretty much proves no invasion blew through, iraq and libya where invasions did occur only rubble and assorted decaying body parts remain.
The hoped for end game was to drive the russian naval fleet off their perch, this large powerful naval force in crimea is a major pain in the wests' butt that imo russia intends to keep.

I don't know where you got there was no invasion from

Russian 'invasion' of Crimea fuels fear of Ukraine conflict


Russian forces dressed in Ukrainian uniforms seized all key assets in Crimea

Crimea was legally handed over to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev

Decree


Decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet "About the transfer of the Crimean Oblast". Supreme Council Herald, 9 March 1954.
On 19 February 1954 the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union issued a decree transferring the Crimean Oblast from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian SSR. The documents which are now housed at the State Archive of the Russian Federation (GARF) do confirm that the move was originally approved by the Presidium of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) on 25 January 1954, paving the way for the authorizing resolution of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union three weeks later.[1] According to the Soviet Constitution (article 18), the borders of a republic within the Soviet Union could not be re-drawn without the agreement of the republic in question. The transfer was approved by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union; however, according to article 33 of the constitution, the Presidium did not have the authority to do so. The constitutional change (articles 22 and 23) to accommodate the transfer was made several days after the decree issued by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet.[2][3]
The decree was first announced, on the front page of Pravda, on 27 February 1954.[4] The full text of the decree was:[5]

If we're not going to fight a war over Crimea and if Russia won't release it over mere sanctions, then are we planning on just keeping the sanctions on Russia for the next 70 years or is it time to move on, drop the sanctions, and trade with Russia again? The whole point of the sanctions was to force Russia to release Crimea. It hasn't and it won't unless we put boots on the ground. Given its nuclear capability, we probably won't put boots on the ground. So what is the end game?

How about the Eastern regions that are also being held by Russia? The aim is to keep Ukraine unbalanced unable to go forward and join the European Union and a financial wreck so they would come back to Russia begging for help. See Georgia current state of affairs. IMO Ukraine would give up the Crimea in exchange for the Eastern regions. But you have to bitterly fight for Crimea to get Donetsk and Luhansk and all the rebel held areas back.
 

OpposingDigit

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When Israel quits its occupation and annexation of Palestine and moves back to the Pre-1967 borders, then maybe we can badmouth Russia in Crimea.
 

Curious Cdn

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When Israel quits its occupation and annexation of Palestine and moves back to the Pre-1967 borders, then maybe we can badmouth Russia in Crimea.

Yes, I am opposed to the on-going Anglo Saxon occupation of Southeastern Britain, as well.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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It was a forced referendum with un-official Russian military standing guard at the polling stations, not allowing the Tatars to vote, and limiting Ukrainian citizens from voting, caught stuffing ballots. The referendum was only recognized by Russia and it's couple of cronies.

Crimea's referendum was a sham display of democracy





I don't know where you got there was no invasion from

Russian 'invasion' of Crimea fuels fear of Ukraine conflict


Russian forces dressed in Ukrainian uniforms seized all key assets in Crimea

Crimea was legally handed over to Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev

Decree






How about the Eastern regions that are also being held by Russia? The aim is to keep Ukraine unbalanced unable to go forward and join the European Union and a financial wreck so they would come back to Russia begging for help. See Georgia current state of affairs. IMO Ukraine would give up the Crimea in exchange for the Eastern regions. But you have to bitterly fight for Crimea to get Donetsk and Luhansk and all the rebel held areas back.

That's another problem. On the one hand, the sanctions have obviously been failures. On the other, we don't want to encourage Russia either. One possible solution would be to invite Ukraine into NATO and only then drop sanctions.

That way, we're acknowledging on the one hand that Russia won this round, but it won't get another chance at any further expansion into the future.
 

White_Unifier

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Feb 21, 2017
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If a vote was held in Crimea a huge majority would vote to join Russia.

Perhaps, and that is what muddies the waters when it comes to forcing Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine. However, the way Russia did it shows that it could invade other countries too. With that, it might make sense to just ask for a proper referendum and if most vote to stay with Russia, so be it, but we let Ukraine join NATO to deter Russia from invading any more territory. Beyond that, we return to normal trade with Russia because what else will we do?
 

Twin_Moose

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If a vote was held in Crimea a huge majority would vote to join Russia.

Now probably yeah because most opposition has been either detained our expelled from Crimea, pre-occupation didn't you read the article I posted 51% of the population wanted to remain with Ukraine

Perhaps, and that is what muddies the waters when it comes to forcing Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine. However, the way Russia did it shows that it could invade other countries too. With that, it might make sense to just ask for a proper referendum and if most vote to stay with Russia, so be it, but we let Ukraine join NATO to deter Russia from invading any more territory. Beyond that, we return to normal trade with Russia because what else will we do?

So you are saying Ukraine should lick their wounds and cede the occupied territory in exchange for a seat they already have in the U.N., Occupation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine was in response to Ukraine voting to join NATO and move away from Russian influence. Europe is balking against more sanctions against Russia mainly due to NG and Oil imports I say turn up the pressure and more sanctions since Europe won't allow military and deadly weapon intervention.
 

White_Unifier

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Now probably yeah because most opposition has been either detained our expelled from Crimea, pre-occupation didn't you read the article I posted 51% of the population wanted to remain with Ukraine



So you are saying Ukraine should lick their wounds and cede the occupied territory in exchange for a seat they already have in the U.N., Occupation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine was in response to Ukraine voting to join NATO and move away from Russian influence. Europe is balking against more sanctions against Russia mainly due to NG and Oil imports I say turn up the pressure and more sanctions since Europe won't allow military and deadly weapon intervention.

Again, what's the end game?

If Europe needs the resources, truly effective sanctions may prove politically difficult and economically crippling. Another solution might be to toughen the sanctions but with a very clear and realistic end game:

1. Russia must call a new UN-monitored referendum in Crimea which all sides will respect.

2. Regardless which side wins the referendum, Ukraine with or without Crimea shall be free to trade with any country it wants and join any international organization it wants to promote its economic or national-security interests without Russian interference.

3. If the pro-Russian side wins the referendum, it would declare Crimea a special administrative region and free economic zone with open borders to both Russia and Crimea for the next seventy years.

In exchange for the above, we'd drop sanctions against Russia and move on.

That way we'd still have sent a message to Russia that its actions were unacceptable while still presenting a practical end-game so that this doesn't drag on for the next century with no end in sight.
 

Twin_Moose

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So again you are calling on Ukraine to cede the industrialized Eastern region to Russia, the area that Russia is most interested in with the richest source of raw resources, OK gotcha as well, your not for Ukraine's best interest but for Russia's
 

White_Unifier

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So again you are calling on Ukraine to cede the industrialized Eastern region to Russia, the area that Russia is most interested in with the richest source of raw resources, OK gotcha as well, your not for Ukraine's best interest but for Russia's

So what do you propose as a practical solution with an actual end game?

Again, we could impose stiffer sanctions, but we need to get the EU on board with this. especially in the midst of a trade war with the US, what practical relief could Canada offer the EU in such an economic standoff other than maybe a preferred-trading-partner status?

My point is not that what Russia did was right. My point is that we've presented no practical end game. So what do you see as a practical end game?
 

Twin_Moose

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Enforce the seize fire agreement it is the path to peace in the region, Russia achieved their end game now it's a waiting game for people like you to say oh well what is done, is done Russia has learnt their lesson ease up on them they won't do it again.