The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "The P

Should we build a world economic model to answer the euro myth quesiotn once and for all?

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I think not

Hall of Fame Member
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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Jay said:
Toro said:
Huck said:
High interrest rates means less loans, etc. which causes the prices to rises in the country: inflation.

Wrong. High interest rates decreases inflation. Macro 101, second class.

Huck, have you ever taken an economics class?


Thats what I thought, but I thought I was loosing my marbles for a sec there....

Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve System can affect inflation to a significant extent through setting interest rates and through other operations (i.e., using monetary policy). High interest rates (and slow growth of the money supply) are the traditional ways that central banks fight inflation, using unemployment and the decline of production to prevent price increases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation#Stopping_inflation

He likes Wikipedia
 

Toro

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May 24, 2005
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Re: RE: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - &am

Huck said:
Jay said:
"High interrest rates means less loans, etc. which causes the prices to rises in the country: inflation. "

Really?

yes, because of the bank gives you more interrest for your money at the bank, they will make less profits. this will in turn reduce investments, so local corporations have less money and prices may go up. Also, if interrests rates ar high, the citizens are more likely to leave their money at the bank and spend less, hence the prices go up.

I thought it may have been a typo, since English is not Huck's first language. But apparently not.

Huck's got it completely backwards.
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Stopping inflation

There are a number of methods which have been suggested to stop inflation.
[edit]

Monetary policy

Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve System can affect inflation to a significant extent through setting interest rates and through other operations (i.e., using monetary policy). High interest rates (and slow growth of the money supply) are the traditional ways that central banks fight inflation, using unemployment and the decline of production to prevent price increases.

However, Central Banks view the means of controlling the inflation differently. For instance, some follow a symmetrical inflation target while others only control inflation when it gets too high. The European Central Bank has come under some criticism for following the latter practice, especially in the face of high unemployment.

* Monetarists emphasize increasing interest rates by reducing the money supply through monetary policy to fight inflation.
* Keynesians emphasize reducing demand in general, often through fiscal policy, using increased taxation or reduced government spending to reduce demand. They also note the role of monetary policy, particularly for inflation in basic commodities from the work of Robert Solow.
* Supply-side economists advocate fighting inflation by fixing the exchange rate between the currency and some stable reference currency such as gold, or by reducing marginal tax rates in a floating currency regime to encourage capital formation.

All of these policies are achieved in practice through a process of open market operations.
 

Jay

Executive Branch Member
Jan 7, 2005
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Re: RE: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - &am

Toro said:
Huck's got it completely backwards.


Thats what I thought....
 

Toro

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May 24, 2005
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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Huck said:
There are many reasons that cause inflation, and for this, many theories exist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

again toro, if you have knowledge, use it to show us, not just accuse with nothing more to say,

Huck, you couldn't scrolll down to the bottom of the page of your own link!

Stopping inflation

There are a number of methods which have been suggested to stop inflation.
[edit]

Monetary policy

Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve System can affect inflation to a significant extent through setting interest rates and through other operations (i.e., using monetary policy). High interest rates (and slow growth of the money supply) are the traditional ways that central banks fight inflation, using unemployment and the decline of production to prevent price increases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

Dude, you really should stop.
 

Jay

Executive Branch Member
Jan 7, 2005
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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

So we can boil this down to these two statements he has made...


Huck said:
If the world diversifies and starts using these dolalrs in the USA for goods, yes. it will dilute the dollars, lowering the value. This will scare investors, banks will raise interrest rates, there causeing inflation.


yes. I see that will will try to link it to inflation. But you need to see how it works. A devalued cuirrency does not cause the inflation directly. If the money devalues with no reason, this will scare investors and they will become reluctant to invest in your country. TO attract them, banks will raise interrest rates. High interrest rates means less loans, etc. which causes the prices to rises in the country: inflation.
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

OK, i may have made a mistake. Toro, please explain to us how money dilution causes inflation?
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Causes of inflation

There are different schools of thought as to what causes inflation. The two most prevalent theories are the neo-classical theory that inflation is driven by increases in the money supply, often used to finance government spending and the neo-Keynesian view that inflation is the result of diminishing returns of productivity.
Scatterplot of money growth and inflation. The positive correlation between money growth and inflation is evidence that high money growth leads to high inflation.
Enlarge
Scatterplot of money growth and inflation. The positive correlation between money growth and inflation is evidence that high money growth leads to high inflation.


Monetary Theory

One of the most widespread theories of inflation is also the most straightforward: inflation is an increase in the supply of money at a rate greater than the expansion in the size of the economy. This is practically measured by comparing the GDP deflator to the rate of increase of the money supply, and setting the interest rate through the central bank to maintain a constant quantity of money.

HOw about that :)
 

Jay

Executive Branch Member
Jan 7, 2005
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RE: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

What will happen to the value of the currency, Huck, if the US Gov borrows and spends 1 trillion dollars?
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Anyways, you guys are so eager to destroy my theory, that you did not see that it does not affect the model.

we key concept here is: creating more money creates inflation (that we know, no matter how as we are arguing). And, for the model, new money that is sold back for export does not dilute the money pool, so no inflation.


in short, we are having real loads of fun in economics, but the model remains the same.
 

Huck

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Re: RE: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - &qu

Jay said:
What will happen to the value of the currency, Huck, if the US Gov borrows and spends 1 trillion dollars?

as shown in the model, nothing. Because, the IMF gets its other loans to other countries paid in USD. and it knows that the USA provides USDs. So, i the USA continue to provide the world in USDs, they will repay their loans and the bank makes money. and, to keep the USA going (*because they are in trade deficit and make no money by trade) loan money to the contry. This is why the USA have such a big debt, and the economy is still running.
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Toro, i did make a mistake here, buck hey, we have been debating for hours, im getting tired now :wink:

anyways, as i said, the model remains unaffected as how the inflation occurs is not important. What matters is that when exporting new money, the USD is not diluted and no inflation occurs.
 

I think not

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Apr 12, 2005
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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Well I'll stay out of this, this has gone beyond stupid, we can't agree on simple economic terminology or concepts and we're going to solve the Euro vs Dollar conspiracy? I'll stick with my link.

And in conclusion, the war was about security, I don't condone it, but that's what I believe.
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

I think not said:
Well I'll stay out of this, this has gone beyond stupid, we can't agree on simple economic terminology or concepts and we're going to solve the Euro vs Dollar conspiracy? I'll stick with my link.

And in conclusion, the war was about security, I don't condone it, but that's what I believe.

No, it remains the same. HOw inflation occurs is not important, the importance is that i occurs, and not when selling goods to another country. nothing has changed. Toro simply succeeded in making us focus on something not relevant.

Monetary Theory

One of the most widespread theories of inflation is also the most straightforward: inflation is an increase in the supply of money at a rate greater than the expansion in the size of the economy. This is practically measured by comparing the GDP deflator to the rate of increase of the money supply, and setting the interest rate through the central bank to maintain a constant quantity of money.
 

Toro

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May 24, 2005
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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Huck

The IMF lends out in currencies other than dollars. I've already shown that.

Plus, total IMF loans outstanding were 40 billion SDRs at the end of the third quarter. At an exchange rate of SDR1= $1.45, total loans outstanding were about $27 billion.

http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/quart/2006fy/103105.pdf

Global GDP is $45 trillion. So IMF loans outstanding account for 0.06% of global GDP. And this is supposed to be a lynchpin in USD hegemony.
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

You know toro, you are very childish. Instead of helping me perfect the model, like i offered so many times before, you are just trying to take it down, as if you dont want to see the result.

I said it before, the goals is not to prove me wrong, the goals is to find the facts and get the model to work.

but all you guys do is flame me, not very mature toro...
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Toro said:
Huck

The IMF lends out in currencies other than dollars. I've already shown that.

Plus, total IMF loans outstanding were 40 billion SDRs at the end of the third quarter. At an exchange rate of SDR1= $1.45, total loans outstanding were about $27 billion.

http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/quart/2006fy/103105.pdf

Global GDP is $45 trillion. So IMF loans outstanding account for 0.06% of global GDP. And this is supposed to be a lynchpin in USD hegemony.


No toro, the IMF lends DSR, which are denominated in USD. we have already demontrated that. how can you forget so fast? (we got it from their very own web site.)
 

Huck

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Re: The Euro vs Dollar Conspiracy Theory: part II - "T

Plus,

we know for fact that 70% of world reserves are in USD. so, if less of this money is for loans, then more is for oil. Then, a euro switch for oil impact would be even more dramatic!

in short, the more the part of the reserve currency for loans, the lower the impact of the euro.