Polls

[damngrumpy]

The Greens are going to be a non issue both Federally and in the upcoming Provincial election.
I believe if an election were held today, the Liberals will pull out another minority government with an increased NDP seat total. People will take out their anger on the Conservatives for forcing an election at this time.
The Tories have painted themselves into a corner making all kinds of election threats and the people will vote against the political right just like they always do.
In fact if you look real close, the Liberals and NDP have laid a trap for the Conservatives and their big mouths have now got them in all kinds of trouble.
Fact most people don't have much trust for Martin, but then they don't trust Harper at all. In fact the Liberals and NDP could push the Conservatives and their Seperatist allies back into political hell where they belong.

 

[mrmom2]

You got to answer this question Rev Why is the Canadian corporae media pushing Canadians don't want another election so soon? 8O Thats all I've heard since Gomery heated up. :evil: This is supposed to be a Democracy :? Lets have a vote and let the people decide these theives fate :wink:

 

[Reverend Blair]

A few things. The corporate media loves elections. A month of programming and higher ratings. The corporate media is also conservative. CTV always has been, Can-West Global is even further to the right than CTV. There is also a massive push from those that live within the right-wing bubble for an election. These are the people who know in their hearts that the polls are wrong, that the man on the street interviews are mistaken, and that anybody who opposes their narrow worldview ar communists. They try to use the media to influence people.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Almost forgot...

Ekos 30/04/2005
Lib.......33
Con......31
NDP......19
Bloc......12
Green.....6

Ipsos-Reid 30/04/2005
Lib........30
Con.......33
NDP.......17
Bloc.......12
Green......5

 

[JomZ82]

I dont know why we love to watch the news, its all bad news an misinformation. Their is nothing relevant politically that is talked about in the news its all just window dressing to make the masses feel like they are on the ground floor of these issues.

You have to remember these polls are just phone interviews done too 1000 random homes. If 1000 out of 34 million+ people would give an accurate representation of the population then how does that explain the numbers above. These things are so generalized that their is so much room for skewing, bias, and polling error. Who knows who is on the other end of these polls.

Their accuracy is hard to measure unless they released their methodology and addressed and eliminated the bias and skewing.

 

[Reverend Blair]

A good rule is never to trust a single poll, Jom. The questions vary a lot from company to company and we never know exactly which area they are calling.

If you look at the overall trends though, you get a pretty good idea of where people stand. Even with that, it tends to match the popular vote, which doesn't match election results in our first past the post system. That's liable to be even more true this time around. This election is going to be fought riding to riding more than region to region or province to province.

I think there will be a lot more 3 way races and a couple of 4 way races where the Greens are strong.

 

[Numure]

Re: RE: Polls

I dont know why we love to watch the news, its all bad news an misinformation. Their is nothing relevant politically that is talked about in the news its all just window dressing to make the masses feel like they are on the ground floor of these issues.

You have to remember these polls are just phone interviews done too 1000 random homes. If 1000 out of 34 million+ people would give an accurate representation of the population then how does that explain the numbers above. These things are so generalized that their is so much room for skewing, bias, and polling error. Who knows who is on the other end of these polls.

Their accuracy is hard to measure unless they released their methodology and addressed and eliminated the bias and skewing.

Go on their websites, or follow a course at University. You will learn the methodology of polls. Its quite simple, and reliable to an extent. Polls are only a reference, and should never be considered as concrete. The margin for error is always indicated, and calculated quite well. Polling agencies each have their reputations for accuracy. I know for one, Léger Marketing has the reputation of always having very accurate polls.

 

[no1important]

Just heard on the Radio the Liberals are still leading by 3 points in todays Decima poll. Hopefully I can find a link and post all the numbers.

Here is an interesting read here

Apparently in Ontario Libs are pulling ahead again. 40%-33%.

 

[Reverend Blair]

That must be the poll they were referring on Politics today. I haven't seen it yet.

Something really interesting about that National Post story is the picture of Harper. For the NP to run such an unflattering picture of their favourite kind of points to him losing some support there too.

 

[no1important]

The numbers are Lib 32, Con 29, NDP 20 and BQ 15 Nationally.

Still not up on any official site but head of Decima says Cons have stalled.

I think it is Harpers hell bent determination to have an election the people do not want. Plus he is an idiot for not capitalizing on Gomery better. He comes across as a dictator with his recent behaviour.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I like those numbers. I doubt they'll hold for long, but they do match the basic trend we've been seeing. They point to a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power though.

I'm still marvelling over that National Post picture of Harper. He looks like a man who just realized he's stepped in front of a speeding bus. For the right-wing press to run such a picture points to him losing favour among the money-men.

 

[no1important]

He looks stunned. He almost looks like he is wearing lipstick. It really is a gawd awful pic isn't it?

 

[Reverend Blair]

If it was in the Star or something, I wouldn't be surprised. It's in the National Post though. Bizarre.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Decima Research
04/05/2005
Lib 32
Cons 29
NDP 20
Bloc 15
Green

 

[Hard-Luck Henry]

Speaking of polls and elections, I'm just off to the polling station to waste, sorry cast, my vote. :evil: We need to have proprtional representation, but you know what they say about turkeys and Christmas.

 

[Reverend Blair]

Maybe now that you have a third party things will at least get interesting, Henry. Did you see Dr.Who the other night? They took some very definite shots at Tony Blair.

 

[no1important]

Pollara
05/05/2005
Liberal 31
Cons 36
NDP 17
Bloc 15
Green

Quite a sharp change from other recent polls. It will be interesting what other polls have in next few days.

Actually Pollara is one of the few companies that do polls I have never heard of.

 

[Reverend Blair]

That kind of looks like a rogue poll...it doesn't match the results others have been getting. Guess we'll have to wait and see, it could just be ahead of the curve.

Pollara has been around for a while, and I think they've done a fair bit of internal party polling. They don't seem to do much polling for 3rd parties though.

 

[no1important]

I think it was rogue as SES shows these numbers:

SES
06/05/2005
Liberal 36
Cons 30
NDP 18
Bloc 12
Green 4

 

[Reverend Blair]

That matches the overall trend better. I still think the Liberals and Conservatives are closer to tied though.