http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2005/12/04/1376187-cp.html
Uncommitted voters outside Quebec, who could determine the outcome of the close-fought federal election, were more likely to ultimately support the Liberals than the Conservatives, a new poll suggests.
The Decima Research online voter-tracking study found uncommitted voters in English Canada were less preoccupied than average with scandal and less likely to want change - all of which augurs well for Prime Minister Paul Martin's party.
Decima is conducting a separate survey of undecided voters in Quebec, the results of which are not yet available.
The results, made exclusively available to The Canadian Press, suggest Conservative Leader Stephen Harper "has a very tricky line to walk" if he is to win over uncommitted voters in English Canada, said Decima CEO Bruce Anderson.
With only two weeks to go to the Jan. 23 vote, the Conservatives have opened up a narrow lead over the Liberals, according to most surveys. However, opinion polls ordinarily report only the party preferences of decided voters. That includes those who are leaning toward, but not firmly committed to, one of the parties.
To sharpen the focus on the uncommitted voters who will likely determine the outcome of the election, Decima broke out the truly undecided and leaning voters from a survey of 4,804 voters outside Quebec, conducted Dec. 29-31.
From that larger survey, which has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20, Decima found 20 per cent were committed to voting Liberal, 20 per cent for the Conservatives and 10 per cent for the New Democratic Party.
It found 47 per cent were uncommitted, including 14.2 per cent who were truly undecided and another 32.4 per cent who said they may yet change their vote, although they were leaning to one of the parties.
In analyzing that 47 per cent, Decima, which is working with Carleton University's School of Journalism and Communications, found two distinct groups: 12 per cent who were torn between the Conservatives and Liberals and 14 per cent who were torn between the Liberals and the NDP.
"They are actively considering both options and they will probably be the groups that most determine the outcome," Anderson said.
The margin of error for the two groups is 4.3 percentage points for the Conservative-Liberal segment and 3.9 percentage points for the Liberal-NDP segment.
Both groups share a below-average preoccupation with the sponsorship scandal, a weaker desire for change and the conviction that the eight-week campaign didn't really start until the new year.
The latter point could prove damaging for Harper, who unveiled most of his party's major platform planks prior to the Christmas holidays. Martin has saved his major announcements for the new year, although so far they have been overshadowed by renewed focus on alleged government ethical lapses.
Anderson cautioned that both groups are volatile and that their views are more prone to change than average as the campaign progresses.
Nevertheless, the study provides an interesting snapshot of the two crucial groups as the parties headed into the new year.
Those torn between the Liberals and NDP were more likely to be female, aged 35-54 and members of a visible minority. They tended to think the Liberals were the best choice to govern and that Martin was the best choice for prime minister. However, they also tended to think the NDP had the best approach to issues they care about most.
At the time of the survey, they were leaning 52 to 36 per cent toward the Liberals.
They were three times more likely to be motivated by fear of a Conservative government than a desire for change. Fully 86 per cent agreed there were good reasons to keep the Liberals in government despite the sponsorship scandal and 78 per cent (30 points above average) said their vote would turn on social issues.
By contrast, only 13 per cent said their vote would hinge on economic issues (11 points below average) and nine per cent on issues of integrity (18 points below average).
As for the specific issues that would be critical in determining their final choice, voters in this group were more likely to say health care, the environment, Harper's personality, same-sex marriage, national unity and a desire to avoid a right-wing government.
Voters torn between the Liberals and Conservatives tended to be female, under 35 or over 55 years of age, and more likely to be on the right of the political spectrum. At the time of the survey, they were leaning equally towards the two parties.
Nevertheless, this group tended to think the Liberals were best to govern and Martin the best choice for prime minister. However, the Conservatives had a slight edge as the party thought to have the best approach on the issues these voters care about most (48 per cent for the Tories versus 42 per cent for the Liberals).
Still, 60 per cent agreed there were good reasons for keeping the Liberals in office despite the sponsorship scandal.
The economy was the primary motivating factor for this group. Thirty-eight per cent said economic issues would drive their vote (15 points above average). By contrast, 35 per cent cited social issues (13 points below average) and 26 per cent cited integrity (one point below average).
Harper is attempting to capitalize on the mood for change in the general populace.
But Anderson said the analysis of uncommitted voters suggests he has to be careful not to advocate anything that is deemed too radical a change on the economic front, for fear of alienating those torn between the Liberals and Conservatives, or on the social front, for fear of alienating those torn between the Liberals and NDP.
"If he appears to be advocating too radical a change agenda, he's going to make them anxious."
Check out
www.decima.com.
Uncommitted voters outside Quebec, who could determine the outcome of the close-fought federal election, were more likely to ultimately support the Liberals than the Conservatives, a new poll suggests.
The Decima Research online voter-tracking study found uncommitted voters in English Canada were less preoccupied than average with scandal and less likely to want change - all of which augurs well for Prime Minister Paul Martin's party.
Decima is conducting a separate survey of undecided voters in Quebec, the results of which are not yet available.
The results, made exclusively available to The Canadian Press, suggest Conservative Leader Stephen Harper "has a very tricky line to walk" if he is to win over uncommitted voters in English Canada, said Decima CEO Bruce Anderson.
With only two weeks to go to the Jan. 23 vote, the Conservatives have opened up a narrow lead over the Liberals, according to most surveys. However, opinion polls ordinarily report only the party preferences of decided voters. That includes those who are leaning toward, but not firmly committed to, one of the parties.
To sharpen the focus on the uncommitted voters who will likely determine the outcome of the election, Decima broke out the truly undecided and leaning voters from a survey of 4,804 voters outside Quebec, conducted Dec. 29-31.
From that larger survey, which has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20, Decima found 20 per cent were committed to voting Liberal, 20 per cent for the Conservatives and 10 per cent for the New Democratic Party.
It found 47 per cent were uncommitted, including 14.2 per cent who were truly undecided and another 32.4 per cent who said they may yet change their vote, although they were leaning to one of the parties.
In analyzing that 47 per cent, Decima, which is working with Carleton University's School of Journalism and Communications, found two distinct groups: 12 per cent who were torn between the Conservatives and Liberals and 14 per cent who were torn between the Liberals and the NDP.
"They are actively considering both options and they will probably be the groups that most determine the outcome," Anderson said.
The margin of error for the two groups is 4.3 percentage points for the Conservative-Liberal segment and 3.9 percentage points for the Liberal-NDP segment.
Both groups share a below-average preoccupation with the sponsorship scandal, a weaker desire for change and the conviction that the eight-week campaign didn't really start until the new year.
The latter point could prove damaging for Harper, who unveiled most of his party's major platform planks prior to the Christmas holidays. Martin has saved his major announcements for the new year, although so far they have been overshadowed by renewed focus on alleged government ethical lapses.
Anderson cautioned that both groups are volatile and that their views are more prone to change than average as the campaign progresses.
Nevertheless, the study provides an interesting snapshot of the two crucial groups as the parties headed into the new year.
Those torn between the Liberals and NDP were more likely to be female, aged 35-54 and members of a visible minority. They tended to think the Liberals were the best choice to govern and that Martin was the best choice for prime minister. However, they also tended to think the NDP had the best approach to issues they care about most.
At the time of the survey, they were leaning 52 to 36 per cent toward the Liberals.
They were three times more likely to be motivated by fear of a Conservative government than a desire for change. Fully 86 per cent agreed there were good reasons to keep the Liberals in government despite the sponsorship scandal and 78 per cent (30 points above average) said their vote would turn on social issues.
By contrast, only 13 per cent said their vote would hinge on economic issues (11 points below average) and nine per cent on issues of integrity (18 points below average).
As for the specific issues that would be critical in determining their final choice, voters in this group were more likely to say health care, the environment, Harper's personality, same-sex marriage, national unity and a desire to avoid a right-wing government.
Voters torn between the Liberals and Conservatives tended to be female, under 35 or over 55 years of age, and more likely to be on the right of the political spectrum. At the time of the survey, they were leaning equally towards the two parties.
Nevertheless, this group tended to think the Liberals were best to govern and Martin the best choice for prime minister. However, the Conservatives had a slight edge as the party thought to have the best approach on the issues these voters care about most (48 per cent for the Tories versus 42 per cent for the Liberals).
Still, 60 per cent agreed there were good reasons for keeping the Liberals in office despite the sponsorship scandal.
The economy was the primary motivating factor for this group. Thirty-eight per cent said economic issues would drive their vote (15 points above average). By contrast, 35 per cent cited social issues (13 points below average) and 26 per cent cited integrity (one point below average).
Harper is attempting to capitalize on the mood for change in the general populace.
But Anderson said the analysis of uncommitted voters suggests he has to be careful not to advocate anything that is deemed too radical a change on the economic front, for fear of alienating those torn between the Liberals and Conservatives, or on the social front, for fear of alienating those torn between the Liberals and NDP.
"If he appears to be advocating too radical a change agenda, he's going to make them anxious."
Check out
www.decima.com.
