Longest Conservative Minority: 6 months

[Jersay]

The 40th Canadian federal election, barring war or insurrection, must be called by February 13, 2011: five years after the return of the writs from the 39th federal election held on January 23, 2006. Traditionally in Canada the Prime Minister can select an election date of his or her choosing, usually at the four-year mark or when he or she believes they have the best chance of winning the election. However, as the preceding parliament will be led by a minority government, it is possible that an election will occur sooner as the opposition parties can bring down the government on a vote of confidence or that the Prime Minister will dissolve parliament for an early election in an attempt to win a majority.

The parliament preceding this election will be led by the smallest minority ever in the Canadian House of Commons — a government with just 40.6% of the seats — and led by the Conservative Party of Canada. Though the average length of a minority parliament in Canada is 1 year, 5 months and 22 days, minorities led by the former Progressive Conservative Party tended to be much shorter: the longest Conservative minority was just 6 months and 19 days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_Canadian_federal_election

I give Harper, until June, so about three or four months.

 

[FiveParadox]

Agreed: Short Parliament

I would agree with your assertion, Jersay, that the Thirty-ninth Parliament is going to be a short one; there are certain matters of business, on which the Conservative Ministry has stated an unwavering resolve, with the entire Opposition voicing a unanimous resolve in the negative.

 

[I think not]

I don't know why anyone would be happy running for elections within 6 months to cost you about $300 million just to get another minority government. :?

 

[FiveParadox]

I think not, I would rather have an election than know that I am being governed by a Prime Minister who had been defeated in the House of Commons. However, if the Government were defeated in such short order, Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean, the Governor General of Canada, could appoint the Honourable Bill Graham, the Honourable Leader of the Opposition (or any other leader of an Opposition party) to attempt to secure the support of the House and attempt to govern, as opposed to precipitating another election.

 

[I think not]

It sounds to me some people are just hell bent getting rid of Harper, the guy just took office, gee zuzz, give him a shot, he can't do anything radical anyway. Why is everyone so afraid? Some people just vote out of fear, I think it's ridiculous.

 

[Jay]

Re: Agreed: Short Parliament

I would agree with your assertion, Jersay, that the Thirty-ninth Parliament is going to be a short one; there are certain matters of business, on which the Conservative Ministry has stated an unwavering resolve, with the entire Opposition voicing a unanimous resolve in the negative.

I dunno, If I was the Liberal Party of Canada , Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition I wouldn't make any hasty moves. They are in no shape to challenge the Conservatives right now.

If they slap a "new and improved" party platform together and stand up a cardboard leader, they are going to loose and loose bad. IMO


(ps: That time I was mocking the shiny colours...) :wink:

 

[FiveParadox]

Darn it, Jay!

Next time I use your name I am gonna make it rainbow!

Bah!

As for the topic at hand, I would suggest that if the Conservative Ministry were defeated before Her Excellency had been made quite aware that the Grits had found a new and established leader, and too soon for an election, that the Honourable Jack Layton be invited to attempt to secure the support of the House.

 

[Jersay]

Go NDP.

I hope the Conservatives lose immediately if it has a chance for the NDP to gain power.

 

[Jay]

Re: RE: Longest Conservative Minority: 6 months

Darn it, Jay!

Next time I use your name I am gonna make it rainbow!

Bah!

ITN put me up to the whole thing.... :twisted:

As for the topic at hand, I would suggest that if the Conservative Ministry were defeated before Her Excellency had been made quite aware that the Grits had found a new and established leader, and too soon for an election, that the Honourable Jack Layton be invited to attempt to secure the support of the House.

Trust me, that's not going to happen.

 

[Jersay]

Anything is possible. If he can gain confidence in the house he will be life-long ruler,

oops.

i mean leader of a minority parliment.

 

[I think not]

Go NDP.

I hope the Conservatives lose immediately if it has a chance for the NDP to gain power.

Yep, I share your hopes.

 

[Jersay]

Excellent. :wink:

 

[Jay]

Anything is possible. If he can gain confidence in the house he will be life-long ruler,

oops.

i mean leader of a minority parliment.

Anything is possible, but this scenario is highly unlikely.

 

[Jersay]

Anything is possible, but this scenario is highly unlikely.

If Harper can't maintain control of the government, and the Liberals in a intern where there would be political infighting, and they can;t maintain government, Jean can either give the government to the NDP or to the seperatists.

 

[Jay]

I know, I just think it is more wishful thinking than anything else.

 

[nitzomoe]

RE: Longest Conservative

anything is possible but the chances of the NDP winning are less than teh chance Osama bin laden will be the next president of the United States of America.

NDP just isnt a sound fiscal policy, everytime they've had an opportunity to run anything especially in Ontario they overspend, over tax and generally ruin everything for everybody including the ppl they are supposed to help.

 

[Jersay]

No, this is a scenario in the house. If Harper loses confidence, Jean doesn't need to call an election she can ask the opposition parties, and see whcich one would be able to gain confidence in the House. And in this scenario it would be possible for the NDP to become the government with only 29 seats.

Have to check with Five if I am correct.

 

[damngrumpy]

This Government is to be a short one, I predict the Child Care issue will bring Harper down, the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc, will all oppose the move Harper wants to bring in.
If an election were called for the Summer or early Fall would see the Tories fall by the wayside.
Harper may not even be the leader by June, the punishment for offering a cabinet post may come back to haunt him, and Tory Pince, David Emerson.

 

[FiveParadox]

Selection of the Prime Minister

Yes, Jersay, that is correct, and quite possible given the current representation in the House of Commons. There is no requirement, in any of the Constitution Acts or the Canada Elections Act, that bind Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean, the Governor General of Canada, to appoint the leader of the largest party; this simply happens to be the most often course of action, since the larger party has a better chance, by the numbers, to have the support of the House.

It has happened before, and I would argue that it could happen again, that a Governor General has seen appropriate to appoint someone other than the leader of the largest party; by way of example, in 1925, it was the prerogative of the late Prime Minister, the Right Honourable William Lyon Mackenzie King to attempt to secure the support of the House before the leader of the larger party, which at the time had nineteen more seats, had a chance to govern; this was done at the discretion of the Governor General of the time, the late Right Honourable Vismount Byng of Vimy.

If Her Excellency saw appropriate to do so, she could, theoretically, appoint someone from neither the House, nor the Senate as the Prime Minister of Canada. It is unlikely that such would ever be done, but there is nothing stopping her from doing so in times of insurgency or emergency; our Constitution Acts, and our conventions of governance, make our system quite flexible.

 

[zoofer]

Adscam is to be reopened by the RCMP.

If they do their work properly our jails will be filled.
Hahaha