Latest Polls

[MMMike]

I still think FiveParadox is right on the issue of the Liberals getting the first shot at forming a government.

If the Liberals tried to form the government having less seats than the Conservatives there would be a revolt. After the electorate sending a clear message that it's time for a change? No way.

 

[Jersay]

If it is the parlimentary system, tough beans.

Reform the parlimentary system. You can't fault someone if it is plainly evident that they could form a government with less seats. If the option is open they should take it.

Besides if they were able to govern, with a minority of seats, they would actually be the majority because they would have to cooperate with other parties to govern. So they would make up a majority.

 

[MMMike]

This afternoon around the corner of my house I saw the best election sign ever. Amongst the blue, red, green and orange election signs someone had put in a plain white sign that said:

Vote for Pedro

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Maybe they're onto something??

 

[Jersay]

:lol:

Cool.

 

[Colpy]

If it is the parlimentary system, tough beans.

Reform the parlimentary system. You can't fault someone if it is plainly evident that they could form a government with less seats. If the option is open they should take it.

Besides if they were able to govern, with a minority of seats, they would actually be the majority because they would have to cooperate with other parties to govern. So they would make up a majority.

So let the GG ask Martin to form a government. One of two things happen:

1. He succeeds in ruling with NDP support for a year or two, completely pissing off Canadians, who consequently vote in a majority Conservative gov't.

2. He fails immediately, which throws the ball back to the GG, who should then ask Harper if he could form a gov't. Or we go to another election, where the people give Harper a majority.

Let's avoid all this BS, and give Harper a majority Monday!

 

[Jersay]

So let the GG ask Martin to form a government. One of two things happen:

1. He succeeds in ruling with NDP support for a year or two, completely pissing off Canadians, who consequently vote in a majority Conservative gov't.

2. He fails immediately, which throws the ball back to the GG, who should then ask Harper if he could form a gov't. Or we go to another election, where the people give Harper a majority.

Let's avoid all this BS, and give Harper a majority Monday!

I will go you one better, and

let's elect a Jack Layton majority on Monday, the 23rd, everybody. It is just easy.

 

[#juan]

SES/CPAC

Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 20, 2006, N=1,057 decided voters)

CP 36.2% (+7)

LIB 29.4% (-8)

NDP 17.3% (+2)

BQ 11.0% (-3)

GP 6.1 (+1)

*12.0% of Canadians were undecided (-4)

The way things are going, the Liberals and the CPC will be about even by election day. Who knows where the undecided vote will go. Nobody is going have a majority. Gee, we might as well have waited for the Liberals to call the election.

 

[Jersay]

I have seen polls all day that have the NDP nearly at 20%.

However, 12% undecided could go to anyone.

 

[I think not]

Harper Headed For 24 Sussex Drive

Conservatives (38%, +1 Point) Hold 12-Point Lead Over Liberals (26%, -3 Points), While NDP (19%, +1 Point) And Green Party (5%, Unchanged) Remain Static
In Quebec: Bloc Quebecois (46%, +3 Points), Conservatives (27%, +6 Points) And Liberals (14%, -10 Points)
Seat Projection Model: Conservatives 143-147, Liberals 59-63, NDP 39-43, And Bloc Quebecois 59-63

 

[I think not]

I still think FiveParadox is right on the issue of the Liberals getting the first shot at forming a government.

If the Liberals tried to form the government having less seats than the Conservatives there would be a revolt. After the electorate sending a clear message that it's time for a change? No way.

All I'm saying is that's my understanding of your election laws. The incumbent party gets a first shot at forming a government if there isn't a majority government after the elections.

 

[sanch]

Is there any data in Canada on which way the undecideds go? In the US if it's the last gallup poll the majority of undecideds (about 65%) go with the challenger. if one takes the results of the second last gallup then the incumbent has more of a chance as the vote breaks that way about 25 % of the time and the rest it breaks even.

This late in the game it would seem that anyone contemplating voting liberal would not be on the fence. Of course Canada is more complicated because of more options than the US but I can't see a scenario where that 12% is waiting to vote liberal. That 12% is shopping and they don't seem to want the usual.

 

[Jersay]

Tracy, I actually hope for the 12% to vote NDP, with nearly 20% + 12%, then that will be more than all other parties than the Conservatives. Then, when Canada finds out that Harper might be crap, they vote in Jack layton the most popular politician in Canada.

Seat Projection Model: Conservatives 143-147, Liberals 59-63, NDP 39-43, And Bloc Quebecois 59-63

That would be so cool to see the Liberals and the Bloc with the same number of seats. And I am glad that with this perdiction that the NDP is only one seat below its highest ever.

 

[Triple_R]

I'd love to see the Liberals reduced to third party status (just to teach them a lesson in humility, and also to force Martin out of the picture for good), but I don't see it happening. Martin has finally done some solid campaigning (i.e. he's actually winning some votes). Sadly, his fear-and-smear, and "voting for the NDP is a waste of time!" arguments are working in GTA, and in some other pockets through out the country. I suspect that the Liberals will have somewhere between 90 and 100 seats (and official opposition party status) on Monday. The Conservatives will probably get over 120, the Bloc over 50, and the NDP will get whatever is left.

 

[BigB]

On the election day let's see if people have the guts to vote in Mr. Robotto. People are mad at the Liberals but are afraid of Harper. If the Conservatives had a real Conservative and not an Alliance member as leader they would be looking at a majority. Harper is a Bush puppet.

 

[#juan]

Probably the last poll before the election

Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 22, 2006, N=1,051 decided voters)

CP 36.4% (+7)

LIB 30.1% (-7)

NDP 17.4% (+2)

BQ 10.6% (-3)

GP 5.6 (+1)

*12.5% of Canadians were undecided (-3)

The Liberals have been climbing for the last few days and will probably get a good percentage of the undecided vote. What this means, is that there will not be a majority government for anyone. What a good idea this early election was. We can do it all again in_________months. Pick your own number.

 

[Freethinker]

Ipsos says CPC on edge of Majority government: :-(

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2949

Future Parliament: Conservatives 148-152 Seats, The Liberals 62-66 Seats, The NDP 34-38 Seats, And The Bloc Quebecois 56-60 Seats

And with new polling fielded over the final weekend election push of the federal leaders, the results suggest that the final national vote will be:

* 38% support for Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party
* 27% support for Paul Martin and the Liberal Party
* 19% support for Jack Layton and the NDP
* 12% support for the Bloc Quebecois
* 4% support for the Green Party

 

[#juan]

Freethinker

I guess we'll find out in a few hours. The election is the only true poll don't ya think?

 

[Jersay]

Agreed, but it is always fun to speculate.