El Niño has arrived and it is ‘no joke’
The United Nations’ weather and climate agency warned countries to brace for impact, and now’s about that time to prepare to buckle up
Author of the article

enette Wilford
Published Jul 17, 2026 • Last updated 1 day ago • 4 minute read
Man looks out toward the ocean during a tropical storm watch warning
"I ain’t never seen anything like this before," says Keith Bruitt as he looks out toward the ocean during a tropical storm watch warning on June 17, 2026 in Galveston, Texas. Photo by Brandon Bell /Getty Images
El Niño was predicted to quickly develop into a strong event between July and September and kick up some extreme weather — and it didn’t disappoint.
At the time, the World Meteorological Organization said El Nino had already set in, and would quickly gain strength.
The United Nations’ weather and climate agency warned countries to brace for impact, and now’s about that time to prepare to buckle up.
What can we expect?
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong — meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.
“El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of… extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the agency said at the time.
In its monthly update, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) pulled no punches about the rapidly strengthening El Niño across the eastern Pacific Ocean, noting water temperature anomalies in a key region around the equator are already running more than 1.0 C above average, with no signs of the warming pattern slowing down.
An ongoing event “would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950” as this trend continues, the CPC noted.
Forecasters anticipate that ocean temperatures in this region will continue to warm through the end of the year, and we have a 97% chance of a strong El Nino through at least next spring.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concurred in its monthly update in June, issuing an El Niño advisory and confirming that warmer conditions had developed in the specific part of the Pacific Ocean known as Niño 3.4 — making the temperatures in the region the warmest on record than ever before at this time of year.
“In the sort of traditional Niño 3.4 region, we’re a bit above 2 C, which is generally seen as the threshold for a very strong or, some people don’t like this term, but a super El Niño,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote in a Substack post.
“So, effectively, we’re already touching a very strong El Niño conditions, and it’s early July still.”
Despite El Niño conditions rapidly setting in, it will have a significant impact on the Atlantic basin, which could see its quietest hurricane season in years, according to NOAA.
Illustration showing a magnifying glass placed over a map of equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies, made in Paris, France, on July 10, 2026.
Illustration showing a magnifying glass placed over a map of equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies, made in Paris, France, on July 10, 2026. (Joao Luiz Bulcao/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images) Photo by Joao Luiz Bulcao/Hans Lucas/AFP /Getty Images
Breaking records?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing global changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, with conditions oscillating between El Niño and its cooler opposite, La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
The peak of the El Nino is currently expected to peak in October, Hausfather noted, though much of the current available models suggest it could be more likely to peak in November or December.
“So we have a long way to go. We’re already brushing super El Niño territory, and we may well be in uncharted waters later this year,” he detailed.
“We might end up breaking the previous El Niño record by a truly mind-blowing margin,” he added.
The strongest El Niño in recent years was in 2015-2016, where the ocean temperature anomaly was roughly 2.75C. There was a comparable one in 1877-1878, climate experts believe.
‘El Niño is no joke’ — namely on food insecurity
Earlier this month, when models showed the potential of an El Nino being as strong as 4 C above average, Hausfather thought that was a mistake, but now, it seems like a real possibility.
“The very fact that models right now are predicting a peak of around 3.6 C when the strongest El Nino in history, including arguably the one in the late 1800s, was only 2.75 C, is kind of mind-boggling,” he said.
Hausfather admitted he is concerned about food security in tropical regions, which are expected to be affected by drought in the coming months.
Canada, meanwhile, will likely see the effects in the winter months, with milder temperatures and drier conditions expected — and could be of greater concern for wildfires to develop in the spring in Western Canada.
“I think we should prepare for some pretty significant impacts,” Hausfather said. “El Niño is no joke, both for agriculture, for the natural world, for ocean ecosystems.”
Previous research has shown that the 1877/78 El Niño resulted in great famine events around the world. However, the strength and statistical significance of this El Niño event have not been fully addressed, largely due to the lack of data. We take a closer look at the data using an ensemble...
repository.library.noaa.gov
With all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting event
www.theclimatebrink.com
El Nino was predicted to quickly develop into a strong event between July and September — and it didn’t disappoint. Read on.
torontosun.com